Climate Change in Asia: Key Findings of IPCC AR5. Rodel D. Lasco

Transcription

1 Climate Change in Asia: Key Findings of IPCC AR5 Rodel D. Lasco 1

2 Outline IPCC AR5 findings for Asia Case study: Typhoon Haiyan 2

3 31 March

4 CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY

5 A warming Asia IPCC WG 2 Asia,

6 A wetter and drier Asia IPCC WG 2 Asia,

7 Food Security The impacts of climate change will vary by region with many regions to experience a decline in productivity Most models, using a range of GCMs and SRES scenarios, show that higher temperatures will lead to lower rice yields as a result of shorter growing periods. 7

8 Food Security In Central Asia, some areas could be winners (cereal production in northern and eastern Kazakhstan could benefit from the longer growing season, warmer winters and slight increase in winter precipitation) While others could be losers (western Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, where frequent droughts could negatively affect cotton production, increase water demand for irrigation, and exacerbate desertification). 8

9 Food Security In the Indo-Gangetic Plains of South Asia there could be a decrease of about 50% in the most favorable and high yielding wheatarea due to heat stress at 2x CO2 Sea level rise will inundate low lying areas and will especially affect rice growing regions. 9

10 Adaptation options 10

11 Human Settlements, Industry, and Infrastructure A large proportion of Asia s population lives in low elevation coastal zones that are particularly at risk from climate change hazards, including sea level rise, storm surges, and typhoons Three of the world s five most populated cities (Tokyo, Delhi, and Shanghai) are located in areas with high risk of floods 11

12 Flood risk and associated human and material losses are heavily concentrated in India, Bangladesh, and China Urban planning is essential No regrets adaptation solution for developing countries 12

13 Water Water scarcity is expected to be a major challenge for most of the region due to increased water demand and lack of good management (medium confidence) Water resources are important in Asia because of the massive population and vary among regions and seasons. 13

14 Water However, there is low confidence in future precipitation projections at a subregionalscale and thus in future freshwater availability in most parts of Asia. Population growth and increasing demand arising from higher standards of living could worsen water security in many parts in Asia and affect many people in future. 14

15 Water Integrated water management strategies could help adapt to climate change, developing water saving technologies increasing water productivity water reuse. 15

16 Terrestrial Ecosystems Terrestrial systems in many parts of Asia have responded to recent climate change with shifts in the phenologies, growth rates, and the distributions of plant species, and permafrost degradation, and the projected changes in climate during the 21st Century will increase these impacts (high confidence) 16

17 Terrestrial Ecosystems Boreal trees will likely invade treeless arctic vegetation, while evergreen conifers will likely invade deciduous larch forest. Large changes may also occur in arid and semiarid areas, but uncertainties in precipitation projections make these more difficult to predict. 17

18 Terrestrial Ecosystems The rates of vegetation change in the more densely populated parts of Asia may be reduced by the impact of habitat fragmentation on seed dispersal, while the impacts of projected climate changes on the vegetation of the lowland tropics are currently poorly understood. 18

19 Maximizing the adaptive capacity of ecosystems by reducing non-climate impacts maximizing landscape connectivity protecting refugia where climate change is expected to be less than the regional mean Habitat restoration 19

20 Coastal and Marine Coastal and marine systems in Asia are under increasing stress from both climatic and nonclimatic drivers (high confidence) It is likely that mean sea-level rise will contribute to upward trends in extreme coastal high water levels. 20

21 Coastal and Marine Mangroves, salt marshes and seagrass beds may decline unless they can move inland, while coastal freshwater swamps and marshes will be vulnerable to saltwater intrusion with rising sea-levels. Damage to coral reefs will increase during the 21 st century as a result of both warming and ocean acidification. 21

22 Coastal and Marine Marine biodiversity is expected to increase at temperate latitudes as warm water species expand their ranges northwards (high confidence), but may decrease in the tropics if thermal tolerance limits are exceeded (medium confidence). 22

23 Adaptation options Increasing connectivity of marine habitats Creating marine protected areas where sea surface temperatures are projected to change least may increase their future resilience 23

24 Human Health, Security, Livelihoods, and Poverty Increasing mortality and morbidity due to heat waves. An aging population will increase the number of people at risk, especially those with cardiovascular and respiratory disorders. Climate change is also expected to affect the spatiotemporal distribution of dengue fever in the region 24

25 Disaster preparedness on a local community level could include a combination of indigenous coping strategies, early-warning systems, and adaptive measures Heat warning systems have been successful in preventing deaths among risk groups in Shanghai 25

26 Building Long-Term Resilience from Tropical Cyclone Disasters Tropical cyclone frequency is likely to decrease or remain unchanged over the 21 st century, while intensity (i.e. maximum wind speed and rainfall rates) is likely to increase (AR5 WG1 Ch 14.6). Densely populated Asian deltas are particularly vulnerable to tropical cyclones due to their large population density 26

27 Inland and storm surge flooding (Nargis) IPCC WG 2 Asia,

28 Preparation for extreme tropical cyclone events through improved governance and development to reduce their impacts provides an avenue for building resilience to longerterm changes associated with climate change 28

29 Super Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) has captured global attention 29

30 TaclobanCity before 30

31 TaclobanCity after 31

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35 One of the strongest ever to hit land (>300 kph) More than 6,000 died More than USD 10 billion in damages 35

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38 TACLOBAN CITY 45,522 Households 26 Selected Barangays 320 HH Samples PALO 11,342 Households 6 Selected Barangays 100 HH Samples ORMOC CITY 38,299 Households 31 Selected Barangays 250 HH Samples 870 HOUSEHOLDS (95% Confidence Interval) GEN MACARTHUR 12,214 Households 5 Selected Barangays 100 HH Samples QUINAPONDAN 13,841 Households 4 Selected Barangays 100 HH Samples

39 Major Cause of Damages Flooding Storm Surge Wind Tacloban Palo Ormoc General MacArthur Quinapondan

40 Damages: Tacloban City Mixed Permanent Light 0 w/ mangroves w/o mangroves w/ mangroves w/o mangroves w/ mangroves w/o mangroves w/ mangroves w/o mangroves w/ mangroves w/o mangroves w/ mangroves w/o mangroves w/ mangroves w/o mangroves w/ mangroves w/o mangroves w/ mangroves w/o mangroves w/ mangroves w/o mangroves w/ mangroves w/o mangroves w/ mangroves w/o mangroves Total Damage Heavy Damage Partial Damage No Damage Damages: Palo, Leyte Total Damage Heavy Damage Partial Damage No Damage Damages: Ormoc City Total Damage Heavy Damage Partial Damage No Damage

41 Lessons How does one prepare for once in lifetime event? How do we communicate risk people have never experienced before (eg storm surge)? How do we build better, given that the recurrence of this event can take decades or a century? 41

42 Thank You!!! RD Lasco 42