The Role of Technologies and Alternative Fuels

Transcription

1 The Role of Technologies and Alternative Fuels David L. Greene Corporate Fellow, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Senior Fellow, Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, The University of Tennessee AASHTO/FHWA Climate Change Symposium Washington, DC August 5, 2010

2 Million Metric Tons CO2 Equivalent What is transportation s fair share? Wrong question? Equal reductions by all sectors? Equal marginal costs? Just price carbon? Adapt policies to market realities? Undervaluing energy efficiency External costs Co-benefits Land use Transportation infrastructure Roads as public goods Unpredictable evolution of technology Energy Information Administration Analysis of Alternative GHG Reduction Policies ($30/tCO2 in 2010, $50/tCO2 in 2030) Requires comprehensive, realistic assessment, e.g., DOT, 2010, Transportation s Role in Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions. My guess: 50% to 80% reduction over present levels by about 2050, and energy efficiency and alternative energy will carry most of the load Transportation Reference Transportation $50/tCO2 Electric Power Reference Electric Power $50/tCO

3 The energy paradox : Markets appear to undervalue future energy savings relative to expected value. Inadequate information? Bounded rationality? Irrationality? Unseen trade-offs? Short pay-back periods? Uncertainty/Loss-Aversion Bias? Future fuel savings uncertain Benefit is fuel savings minus cost Behavioral Economics: faced with risky bet, consumers exaggerate probability of loss, count potential losses at 2-times potential gains.

4 Vehicle Miles (millions) Gallons (millions) Fuel economy standards work, which is why every major auto manufacturing country has them. Miles of Travel and Fuel Use by Light-duty Vehicles: Vehicle Travel Fuel Consumption FHWA, Highway Statistics, table VM-1, various years. 0

5 EPA Combined MPG IF we stop the horsepower and size race, MIT researchers foresee gains of 80-85% for gasoline passenger cars and light trucks (2-2.5%/yr.) by Potential for Advanced Technologies to Increase Fuel Economy by Camry 2.5L Camry 3.0 F-150 Pick-up Base 2030 Adv Diesel 2030 Turbo SI 2030 Hybrid Kromer and Heywood, SAE Technical Paper Series,

6 Incremental Retail Price Equivalent Beyond 2020: How quickly can we reduce the costs of advanced automotive technologies? $18,000 Fuel Economy Cost Curves MIT: On the Road in 2035 $16,000 $14,000 $12, y = x x $10,000 PHEV 30 $8,000 y = 15498x x $6,000 Fuel Cell $4,000 Hybrid $2,000 Gasoline ICE Turbo $0 Battery EV 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% Percent Increase in Miles per Gallon Gasoline Equivalent Energy

7 NRC Heavy Vehicle fuel economy report: 40% to 50% increase with existing technologies. Then what? NRC, 2010, Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy- Duty Vehicles, Figure S-1. Break-even fuel prices shown above bars. $1.10 $4.20 $5.40 $6.80 $4.80 $2.70 $1.70

8 The RFS calls for 36 billion gallons of biofuel by 2022 but the earliest cellulosic goal has already been missed. NRC considers the long-term goal feasible, but. (NRC, Liquid Transportation Fuels from Coal and Biomass, 2010).

9 Kilograms per Liter The premise of California s Low Carbon Fuel Standard is that a performance standard will lead to greater innovation than mandating or subsidizing specific fuels Lifetime CO2 Emissions of Several Alternative Fuels National Research Council, Liquid Transportation Fuels from Coal and Biomass.

10 Which biofuels from which feedstocks for which uses? Gasify biomass to produce electricity with carbon capture and storage (CCS)? Make synthetic jet fuel for aircraft or diesel fuel for heavy trucks via Fischer-Tropsch synthesis? Make synthetic jet or diesel fuel from algae? Make gasoline from coal and biomass with CCS? Make ethanol from cellulose via enzymatic production of sugar and fermentation? Gasify biomass to produce hydrogen?

11 To achieve GHG reductions of 50% to 80% by 2050, electric vehicles will require a decarbonized utility sector and fuel cell vehicles will require low GHG hydrogen.

12 And won t energy efficiency and alternative fuels decimate the motor fuel tax? How could we finance surface transportation? Universal VMT tax? According to the laws of physics, transportation is work, and energy is necessary to do work. Universal energy tax All forms of energy taxed equally Indexed to average energy efficiency Indexed to inflation Equivalent impact on VMT to a universal VMT tax In addition, encourages continued energy efficiency improvement and favors more energy efficient technologies.

13 What will it take? Technology, policy, planning and public will. Energy Efficiency Passenger car and light truck standards to 2016 On beyond 2016 Heavy-duty vehicle efficiency Rethinking Renewable or Low-Carbon Fuels The Renewable Fuels Standard California s Low-Carbon Fuels Standard Future biofuels A Transition to Sustainable Energy Electricity? Hydrogen? Electricity & Hydrogen?

14 Thank you.