Observing and Predicting Change

Transcription

1 Observing and Predicting Change Rationale Cumulative impacts of diverse human activities threaten many ocean regions. Observing temporal trends and predicting when and where change might occur and which changes will cause the most profound impacts requires greater understanding of the interplay between dynamic ocean conditions and species composition.

2 Lessons from CoML Much remains unknown Baselines Distribution Changes through time Webb et al. 2010

3 Lessons from CoML Much remains unknown Baselines Distribution Changes through time

4 Lessons from CoML Changes through time

5 Objectives Observing and Predicting change Deploy observational technology to quantify the status and trends of marine biodiversity targeting a wide range of organisms. To identify key organisms that act as indicators of broader ecosystem response to environmental change. Develop and apply tools for predicting the impact of change on marine ecosystems

6 Questions - Predicting Change How does biodiversity respond to global changes such as climate warming, altered ocean chemistry, and a wide range of R6 other human influences, and how do these affect the ecosystem services it provides? R3 What level of monitoring is needed to provide sufficient information on the status (functions and services) of marine biodiversity and ecosystems and what new tools are needed? Can we identify organisms that can serve as early warning systems of change ( canaries ) in an ecosystem that, if accurately identified, might allow time for mitigating actions to be taken?

7 Slide 6 R3 where did this come from? should be in spatial planning Richard Brinkman, 9/29/2011 R6 ASK MASSA - 1 predictions through trophic levels 2. interactions between TL - needs understanding to enable prediction Richard Brinkman, 9/30/2011

8 Questions - Predicting Change To what extent can we erode the standing stocks of a species before collapsing the functions they provide? R8 Can we test and apply innovative predictive models and decisionr7 support tools used to reconcile demands for development with ecological principles?

9 Slide 7 R7 where did this come from? should be in spatial planning Richard Brinkman, 9/29/2011 R8 ASK MASSA - 1 predictions through trophic levels 2. interactions between TL - needs understanding to enable prediction Richard Brinkman, 9/30/2011

10 Strategy Utilise existing programs and collaborations and create new opportunities for collection of temporally resolved integrated biodiversity data and accompanying environmental information. Objectives Coordinate biodiversity sampling across taxa, habitats, hierarchical levels, and methods from microbes to mammals. Maximize compatibility with legacy data Establish centres to coordinate sample processing, including taxonomic identifications, data management, and training

11 Strategy Develop new or adapt existing observational techniques (high/low tech) to enable an appropriate level of monitoring. Objectives Developing new approaches for automated sample collection/processing. High tech to low tech autonomous underwater observatories through to trained volunteer divers Image T. Rynearson

12 Strategy Use temporally resolved data to inform empirical and numerical simulation models to examine the impacts of climate change on marine biodiversity and ecosystems Objectives Build on projects with temporal focus (e.g. HMAP/FMAP) IOBIS (with evolution of temporal component) IndiSeas (Indicators for the Sea) program

13 ARMS: a systematic, consistent, and comparable method to monitor cryptic reef diversity. Discovery, baselines, spatial distribution Temporal trajectories of targeted sub components of ecosystems Global co-ordination Extension to other ecosystem components Reef Life Surveys

14 Systems: e.g. OceanSITES 60 time series stations part of GOOS VENUS and NEPTUNE expanding into biodiversity observation

15 Objectives Observing and Predicting change Deploy observational technology to quantify the status and trends of marine biodiversity targeting a wide range of organisms. To identify key organisms that act as indicators of broader ecosystem response to environmental change. Develop and apply tools for predicting the impact of change on marine ecosystems