John Housley Techcet Group, LLC Los Gatos, CA

Transcription

1 John Housley Techcet Group, LLC Los Gatos, CA

2 Techcet MegaTrends The Sure Facts Fact #1: Even during the worst years, the world almost always consumes more silicon than the year before. We think 2008 may have had a less than 3% increase over Some believe it was flat. Our prediction for semiconductor silicon (MSI) for 2009 is down 10% 15%, if we are lucky. Fact #2: What the semiconductor market doesn t consume the Solar market has been taking and likely will continue in volume consumed Green is In Opportunities may exist to lower greenhouse gas emissions or hazardous waste May threaten to limit growth of gases or chemicals that were once deemed environmentally friendly but are now not environmentally friendly enough Growing market segments still linked to copper interconnect Growth opportunities still exist in materials or processes that can lower cost per chip or per wafer Page 2

3 Techcet MegaTrends, continued Materials markets on average normally grow year to year, not for 2009 Even in good times,exceptions are those materials that are tied directly to equipment installs or utilization (for example indirect materials) Bulk gases are least impacted by industry downturn (equipment still needs to be purged even when not in use) Materials markets will be slow to no growth for the next two years and may recover by late mm Fabs shutting down, flooding the market with 200mm used equipment Page 3

4 The MegaTrend to Watch Taiwan and Korea are targeting the OEM and materials business Materials businesses will go where the customers demand Some materials prices will fall, needless and hopeless. Forecasting the future: The future looks like 6 months Page 4

5 Supply Chain Concerns Other industries have more of an impact on Semiconductor Materials Cost of earth, wind and fire continues to escalate (except for oil) Materials constrained by external markets include: Polysilicon / silane [solar] Wet chemicals [bio fuels] Titanium [aerospace and building] Tungsten [industrial] IPA / resists / organo compounds [petroleum] More and more materials producers and suppliers are focused on the solar industry May stimulate creative ways to lower costs World economic recession taking a toll R&D support from suppliers will get even worse But what about the price of oil? The ole Oklahoma discount. Up 40%, down 10% Everything is connected to everything else

6 Key Market Indicators Total IC Process Materials 5 Year CAGR 7 8% $43 B total for 2007 $12 B of this = FEOL process materials >$55 B estimated for 2011 Costs of energy and raw materials constraining margins, forcing more rationalization and consolidation Packaging 38% Indirect Materials 4% Sources: Techcet Group, LLC., TechSearch International, and SEMI Direct Materials 27% Silicon 31% Page 6

7 Front End Materials Market $12 B in 2007 ; ~ $13 B for 2008 Targets 3% Graphite 2% Wet Chemicals 6% Quartz 6% Ceramics 2% Silicon Carbide 1% Other Indirects 8% Adv. Dielectrics and SOGs 5% Electroplating 1% CMP 11% Ancillaries 6% Photoresist 9% Gases 18% * Does not include silicon Page 7 Masks 22% Source: Techcet Group, LLC.

8 Historic Silicon Usage SEMI Silicon Consumption % Millions of Sq.Inches % 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Percent Change est 2009 est -40% Sources: Historical Data SEMI; 2008 estimate and 2009 Forecast - Techcet Group, LLC. Page 8

9 PolySi Capacity According to SEMI, of the 10 major traditional suppliers, most of them plan to at least double, if not triple or more capacity in the next 5 years In addition, there are at least a dozen potential new players Many of the new players may be empty suits (sorry, empty buildings) If they all produce what they announce, the capacity could be as much as 5X or greater 2011 over 2006 Techcet s third law: in our business, for every action, there is an equal and opposite over reaction Page 9

10 Polysilicon Producers Sumitomo 2% Mitsubishi 6% Other 15% Hemlock 27% MEMC 9% Tokuyama 10% Wacker 19% REC 12% Page 10

11 Announced Polysilicon Capacity Established Suppliers New Entrants Annual Capacity (MT/Yr) 450, , , , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Includes captive and merchant markets; solar and semiconductor applications. Does not include metallurgical grade Source: SEMI, Techcet Group, LLC. Page

12 Gases Market Forecast and History Gas market is less impacted by down turns given bulk gases are still consumed when equipment is idle Gas market grew ~7% in 2008 Expected to be less than 4% growth in 2009 Specialty Electronic Gas Market Share as a Percent of WW Revenues TNS 29% Prax 8% BOC/Linde 4% Other 3% AL 21% AP 35% Source: Techcet Group, LLC. Page 12

13 Regional Consumption of IC Gases 2007 Relates to high volume materials spanning all technology nodes Based on wafer start data and inputs from suppliers Page 13 Source: Critical Materials Report on Gases 2008 Techcet Group, LLC.

14 Gases Silane Silane Demand vs. Production Metric Tons Silane availability constrained by high demand for polysilicon New plants coming massive oversupply planned for 2010 WW Demand (polysilicon) WW Demand (PVcells,IC&TF T fab) WW Production Page 14

15 Wet Chemicals Petroleum prices have fallen >25% over the past 5 months Fall out from the wet chem business has left few major companies in this space Page 15 The majority of chemicals are bought locally Small companies are King These smaller companies are the ones left standing and may now actually have a margin

16 WW Photoresist Market $1,600 20% Revenues ($M's) $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Percent Change $0-10% * Semiconductor Application Only Source: Techcet Group, LLC. Photoresist grew a little in 08, not by volume but by total $ (ArF) However, market growth will be slowed by lower wafer starts and fab capacity cuts for 2009 and We predict as much as 12% or worse decline in resist volume in 09 Page 16

17 Quartz Consumables (Spares) $1,200 $800 $400 Ingots/Boules Tubes/Rods Cold Fabrication (SW) Hot Fabrication (Batch) $ Source: Techcet Group, LLC. fcst Quartz and SiC market segments directly impacted by lack of equipment sales These markets expected to decline 19% in fcst Quartz and SiC will be boosted by demand for crucibles for solar cell wafers Page 17

18 Photomasks Mask market now $3.3B for 2008 Negative growth (at least 6%) expected for 2009 Merchant shops continue to lose share Captives now support 40% of total masks produced by revenue Other Captives 19% Samsung* 6% TSMC* 15% TMC 2% Market Share as a Percent of Total Mask Market Revenues Other Hoya <1% 4% DNP 23% Photronics 11% Toppan 20% Source: Techcet Group, LLC Page 18

19 New and Potential Growth Opportunities In the semiconductor industry, the adoption of copper continues and still drives new material opportunities and good market growth CMP still looks like a growth area Solar may mean lower purity and lower margin materials but the volumes are too high to disregard. This market as a huge growth opportunity Page 19

20 Cu Interconnect Becoming Universal 100% 80% 71% 74% Percent Wafer Starts w/ Cu 60% 40% 20% 2% 15% 37% 51% 45% 56% 0% RAM MPU 180 nm RAM MPU 130 nm RAM MPU 90 nm RAM MPU 65 nm RAM MPU 45 nm Page 20

21 CMP Consumables & Ancillaries Continue To Be Popular CMP consumables still growing on average 8% or better year/year Pad conditioners are a hotbed Conditioner market for Cu CMP is large, partly due to low conditioner life New materials, designs, research Cu PCMP* is still a growth market W PCMP niches will grow below 45nm S STI PCMP showing signs of life PVA brushes new names, new designs Retaining rings new materials Page 21 Advanced Pads for Next Nodes Courtesy NexPlanar *Post CMP cleaning

22 CMP Slurry Market Trend Upside, Downside or Something in Between? > 15 Slurry Suppliers Bring Price Competition, esp. Cu & Barrier Slurries Cu and Barrier not one size fits all Ceria ( direct ) STI growing Oxide defectivity challenges increase with advanced nodes Revenue (Millions $USD) 2,000 1,500 1, Upside Downside Page 22

23 Solar Market Growing Fast! Two key technologies each growing >30% per year in volume Silicon wafer based (20% 30% growth) Thin film (28%+) Si wafer based solar cells now exceed ICs in terms of square inch equivalents and growing at a much higher rate Silicon costs are coming down fast Thin film solar cells will drive growth in deposition metals and metal oxides, conductive inks as well as specialty and bulk gases Generated F 2 may find some success here to replace NF 3, a more expensive chamber cleaning gas The largest volume IC material consumed for solar is silane used to make polysilicon and for nitride Page 23 SMC - 1/2009

24 Solar Market Huge Growth MWp 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Global PV Capacity Sources: JP Morgan, Photon International, Techcet Group, LLC. 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Growth Yr2/Yr1 Page 24

25 Challenges for the Future Continuing Challenges The cost of earth, wind and fire continues to rise, resulting in higher prices, finally being passed on to IDM s and foundries Precious metals increasing Petroleum based chemicals and carriers, oil price down, chemicals and plastics not down as much Shipping (gas and diesel down, shipping not) Cost of developing and implementing new materials for successive generations is skyrocketing. Are the customers willing to pay? New materials require costly development, but manufacturing volume use is low, at least at the beginning of the cycle; this dynamic is forcing materials suppliers to re evaluate, exit or minimize their involvement in the IC market Emerging Challenges The material efficiency effect of 300mm wafers begins to show (per chip usage) on materials. How will 450 mm wafers affect materials? Materials companies moving to the customers Page 25

26 If You Don t See It Here Just Ask! Photovoltaics/Solar Materials Markets FPD Process Materials Markets III V Process Materials Sputtering Targets SiC and Graphite Hi K / ALD Ion Implant Strain Materials CMP Pads, Slurry, Conditioners Page 26

27 Acknowledgments Dan Tracy, Ph.D. SEMI Lara Chamness SEMI Techcet Group & Associates Lita Shon Roy Steve Holland, Ph.D. Mike Fury, Ph.D. Robert Geffken, Ph.D. Jiro Hanaue Maggie Lee Katherine Derbyshire Larry Thompson, Ph.D. Allan Wiesnoski Page 27