Strategy of low-carbon society in Japan since 2008 Mid-to long-term goal for Japan (80% reduction by 2050)

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1 ;Plenary Session: How We Could Promote Evidence-Based Policymaking by Bridging the Gap between Policymakers and Research Communities? 7 th LOCARNET Conference November 22th, 2018 SDGs and National Policies in Japan - Scientific models and Tools for SDGs Cities - Prof. Tsuyoshi Fujita Director of Center for Social Environmental Systems Research National Institute for Environmental Studies Appointed Professor of Tokyo Institute for Tech. 1

2 Strategy of low-carbon society in Japan since 2008 Mid-to long-term goal for Japan (80% reduction by 2050) Draft proposal by Minister of Environment in March 2010: a cut of 25% in 2020, 80% in 2050 Development of innovative technology and wide adoption of existing leading technology (Technology development and popularization of renewable energy and energy saving) Actions to move the whole country toward decarbonization (emissions trading, tax reform, transparency) The power of regions: Eco-model cities since 2008 (United efforts to decarbonize by cities and communities) 2

3 Eco-cities, Smart Cities and SDGs Future Cities Eco-Model Cities since 2008; 23cities Low-carbon Unification Initiatives for Cities/Regions Promotion Council for the Low-Carbon Cities Best Practices for Planning Low-Carbon Cities Future Cities since 2011; 11 cities The creation of successful examples to be spread throughout Japan and internationally SDGs Future Cities since 2018; 30 Autonomous SDGs planning and driving Projects, designated on JUNE 14 th, 2018 Smart Community Projects since

4 SDGs Future City Initiatives Announced on June 15, 2018 SDGs Future City/ Local government SDGs mode program 10 municipalities SDGs Future City 19 municipalities Maniwa city Okayama city Ube city Kitakyushu city Iki city Oguni town Hokkaido pref. Sapporo city Suzu city Semboku city Toyama city Iide town Nagano pref. Hakusan city Sakai city Toyota city Hiroshima pref. Totsugawa vil. Matsushima city Tsukuba city Shimokawa town Kanagawa pref. Yokohama city Hamamatsu city Kamakura city Shizuoka city Niseko town Kamikatsu town Shima city This map is made based on the blank map of Geospatial Information Authority of Japan

5 Local Government SDGs Model Programs Model Programs Through comprehensive initiatives that follow the SDGs principles, these pioneering initiatives with strong potential will achieve sustainable development by creating new value in the three aspects of economy, society, and environment, and aim to implement programs expected to produce self-directed virtuous cycles in the region through cooperation with diverse stakeholders. Program image Social synergistic effect 1 Economic synergistic effect 1 Issues in proposed city Economic growth and employment, infrastructure, industrialization, innovation, etc. Initiative 1 Initiative 2 Economy Society Local Government SDGs Promotion Project Subsidy Comprehensive initiatives linking three aspects Issues in proposed city Initiative 1 Initiative 2 Health, education, etc. Environmental synergistic effect 1 Economic synergistic effect 2 Environment Energy, climate change, etc. SDGs goal will be chosen according to the issues in the proposed cities Issues in proposed city Initiative 1 Initiative 2 Social synergistic effect 2 Environmental synergistic effect 2 5

6 Action Research for SDGs Co-Planning Subjective progress evaluation theories and methodologies rather than comparative estimation Coordination of Bottom-up Planning and Scientific objectivity bottom up goals and indicator setting based on scientific analysis Research Development through Co-Delivery with Stakeholders 課題 2030 SDGs Targets 個別課題 課題 課題 SDGs from Universal rules and National targets Indicators for backcasting Bottom-up Indicator designs SDGs and Targets Design Global and National SDGs Targets Top-down or Normative SDGs Targets Logical Integrity and Quantitative Co-relation SDGs of Localities and Enterprise Bottom-up or Explorative SDGs targets 6

7 Research Perspectives for Evidence-Based Policymaking by Bridging the Gap between Stakeholders and Research Communities 7 1. Solution design and development of green cities and regions by back-casting from the future. 2. Social monitoring and modelling challenges for sustainable cities

8 Development of Regional Integrated Models (Regional AIM) and Spatial Planning Model to design sustainable regions and cities Integrated Model (AIM) Design of Vision and Road Map for National Scale National End Use Model Eco Growth Modules Local Heat/Energy Management Low Carbon Industrial System *CGE model Regional Rebuilding Parameter Population Policies for aging Industries Policies for low carbon Bio-Sys Natural habitat restoration Land Use Compact city Policies Spatial Planning Model *Computational General Equilibrium Regional Parameters National Targets National Road Maps Analysis for Fukushima Pref. Scale End Use Model Fukushima CGE Model Fukushima Targets Planning for Local Scale Snap Shot Models Policy Support Tools Fukushima R. Maps Local Targets Strategic Spatial Zoning System Forestry Eco System Service Model Spatial Policy/ Tech. Process Packages Local Startistics and Project Data Buildings Industries Agriculture/ Forestory Life Style

9 10,000 8,000 Macro-scope Simulation for the Future Scenario of Population and Prodiction Population Population recovery by green growth 人 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 なりゆき Bau LNG 立地 Base 産業振興 Indus.Locati 環境産業共生 on Green Growth 50% Population Decrease by Population keeping with industrial locations Limited population effects by LNG base 9

10 Multi Stage Approach for Eco-City and EIP Planning 1Macro-scope Alternative future vision 2Spatial-scope Land use zoning /network design population, industries core developments energy locality Future frame land use distribution patterns local energy network location of core developments なりゆきシナリオ LNG 立地シナリオ産業振興シナリオ環境産業共生シナリオ ( ) 3Project Design Core projects for revitalization Feasibility Study zoning and regulation district planning key industries 10

11 Development of Regional Integrated Models (Regional AIM) and Spatial Planning Model to design sustainable regions and cities Integrated Model (AIM) Design of Vision and Road Map for National Scale National End Use Model Eco Growth Modules Local Heat/Energy Management Low Carbon Industrial System *CGE model Regional Rebuilding Parameter Population Policies for aging Industries Policies for low carbon Bio-Sys Natural habitat restoration Land Use Compact city Policies Spatial Planning Model *Computational General Equilibrium Regional Parameters National Targets National Road Maps Analysis for Fukushima Pref. Scale End Use Model Fukushima CGE Model Fukushima Targets Planning for Local Scale Snap Shot Models Policy Support Tools Fukushima R. Maps Local Targets Strategic Spatial Zoning System Forestry Eco System Service Model Spatial Policy/ Tech. Process Packages Local Startistics and Project Data Buildings Industries Agriculture/ Forestory Life Style

12 Integrative Eco-city Simulation Model for Municipal Governments Location theory Regional science (Weber, Alonso, etc.) Land Use Scenario Population 2020 Regional Future Scenario (Local GDP, Population Land area) Spatial Distribution (Residential) Spatial Distribution (Industrial) Future Spatial Scenario Multi-Variable Integration Theory Industrial Location Scenario Built Environment Transition Local Energy Management System CEMS ADR Transportation Management System Industrial Energy Management System Local energy FEMS Industrial Symbiosis Waste Management System Recycle and Industrial symbiosis Eco Finance / Behavior Science 12

13 Scenario Design for Strategic Land Use Planning 地域交通技術については 都市の集約化を考慮し カーシェアリング シェアライド等の地域交通システム導入により低炭素化を促進する 建物環境改善技術については 既築建物の改修 ( 断熱改修等 ) 建物の新築および街区更新を契機とした技術の導入により 建物内エネルギー消費量を削減する Present (2015) BAU Future 低炭素都市のイメージ 自動車への依存大 建築効率化水準向上の限界 Low Carbon Scenario 技術導入シナリオ土地利用シナリオ 地域交通技術が普及する地域 カーシェアリング等の地域交通技術導入によるマイカー依存から脱却 集約化 集約化 集約化 建築集合化促進 建物環境改善技術の導入が進む地域例 : 住宅の対策イメージ 窓断熱等 壁の高断熱化 13

14 Land Use and Transportation Management Model 2010 年から 2050 年を対象に集約化計算を 4 シナリオを実施 計算の結果 シナリオ β-1 の拠点数は 13 箇所 シナリオ β-2 の拠点数は 3 箇所と選定 地域交通事業は α から β-2 にかけて要件を達成するメッシュが増加するとともに対象となる人口 従業者も増加する 地域エネルギー事業は β-2 が事業導入の対象床面積が最も大きい 年 BAU 年 α 年 β 年 β-2 市街化区域内における地域交通事業導入の対象人口 ( 万人 ) 13 拠点地区内における地域エネルギー事業導入の対象延床面積 ( 万 m 2 ) 年 (BAU) 年 (α) 年 (β-1) 年 (β-2) 人口 ( 対象 ) 従業者数 ( 対象 ) 人口 ( 対象外 ) 従業者数 ( 対象外 ) 戸建 ( 対象 ) 集合 ( 対象 ) 業務 ( 対象 ) 対象外 14

15 1. Outline of Shinchi Town and Damage by the Earthquake JAPAN Shinchi Town Shinchi Town, Soma-Futaba Region, Fukushima Prefecture Population: 8,247 / Households: 2,754 / Area: km 2 (As of Jan. 1st, 2017) Fukushima

16 BaU scenario in Shinchi town in 2030 To Natori Newly located industries New town around Station Komagamine Energy managemen t Plant factories Mega solar Soma city LNG Power Plant LNG base Heat Cool Gas(LNG) Electricity 16

17 Integrative Energy System in Fukushima Shinchi town in 2030 Newly located industries To Natori New town around Station Plant factories Komagamine x Plant factories Soma city Mega solar Newly located industries Energy managemen t Data center LNG Power Plant Food industries LNG base Heat Cool Gas(LNG) Electricity 17

18 Estimation of Alternative Future Spatial Scenarios Alternative Spatial Scenario Quantification of Impacts and Costs BAU +Compact City +Green Growth Effects of Local Energy Management kt CO 2 /yr Inventory survey Heat supply Heat demand Symbiosis design: Heating system design Land use design Assessment: CO 2 emission comparison: BAU Urban Compact city Plant factory Green growth System simulation: Networking Heat loss Economic cost-benefits Pressure loss Environmental impacts Green growth can bring significant co-benefit of CO2 emission reduction and fuel saving. million yen/yr Fuel cost comparison: BAU Urban Compact Green city growth Plant factory 18

19 Multi Stage Approach for Eco-City and EIP Planning 1Macro-scope Alternative future vision 2Spatial-scope Land use zoning /network design population, industries core developments energy locality Future frame land use distribution patterns local energy network location of core developments なりゆきシナリオ LNG 立地シナリオ産業振興シナリオ環境産業共生シナリオ ( ) 3Project Design Core projects for revitalization Feasibility Study zoning and regulation district planning key industries 19

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21 Town planning around Shinchi Station and energy system 21 Town planning and Local Energy Center (Operation from 2019) Commercial facility Hotel Local energy center Public facility LNG パイプライン Agriculture facility Branch of the Natural Gas line from Soma LNG base to Sendai City. The gas will be used for combined heat, power and CO2 supply to facilities by cogeneration Bathhouse Detached house Heat Power CO2 Soma LNG base project

22 Local Energy Based Urban Rebuilding Project in Fukushima Sustainable rebuilding projects through collaborative planning among town planning, industrial development and local energy system 施設農業 Multi sectoral energy management /housing/commertial/agriculture Strategic land use transition targets 都市 Energy Center Smart thermal and electricity management 熱電気 Efficient local energy management for a local scale system LNG LNG Plant 22

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24 Shinchi Energy Center Oct. 2018

25 Green Innovation System from Local Energy Center ①Visible Local Energy Center Smart Local Information Center ②Local Infrastructure Innovation Pipe, Wire, Fiver 地域エネループラント 計測装置 の見える化による実践教育機会と しての活用 エネルギー消費モニ ター 壁面太陽光パネル 緑化 舗装 ルートライ ン サインプレート ハンドホール な ど 〇Signs for Bldgs エネルギー供給 消費量や状況を 視覚的に分かりやすく説明 ⑤ ① ③ ④ ⑥ ② 〇Signs for Networks 地中の熱導管を見せる Communication Center ガラスの機械室 サイネージ設備 イベント情報 まちのPRなども掲載 熱導管 自営線ルート ③Eco-City Innovation Research NIES and Universities エネルギーまちづくりの社会イノベーション研究拠 点の運営 模型 パネル 写真展示 環境教育設備等の設置 サイネージ設備 商業施設テナント情報なども掲載 25

26 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3, Considering time-frame in the technology assessment models With future targets of demography, economy, and environment in the region, the most suitable technology is chosen in short, mid, and long term. Structure of land use and related industries are describe as well. Long-term target of the region [Demography, employment, town-making, low-carbon, etc] Gap against BaU Short term:pioneering point development project Town-planning with local energy A show-case of low-carbon system Economic impact in several years Long-term:Urban-Industry- Agriculture Complex Industrial ecology by strategic locations Intensive local energy use with IT facilities Industrial development centered by local energy business creates employment (~ 3000) Short term:cluster development Compact clusters of residents, commerce and industries Convenient transport Creating employment (~1000) and enhance settlement 26

27 Future Target 3; Regional Energy Renovation 27 Forest Local Energy Network Wind Power Gas supply Elect. Gas Heat Local Energy Center Aggregated Control system Optimal operation Cogeneration LNG Power Plant Town office Co-Energy Grid Houses Green House Farm Commercial/ Business LNG base Local Energy Networking with Urban Clusters Toward Energy Automonous Compact Town Eco- Industrial Network 27

28 Energy scenario settings (proposed) Based on difference of direction in future societal and technological changes, the urban energy model can project various scenarios as following examples. Detailed value of the input parameters should be decided accordingly. Scenarios Description Population Energy use per capita Energy use per worker Device Efficiency Renewable Energy CEMS BaU_fix BaU_future LCS_tech Technology and behavior is fixed at present Likely future changes without strong policy intervention Low-carbon devices are introduced No change in use level + Current Current Current Current None + Increase Slight Increase + Current Current Current None + Supply under current grid None LCS_Social Policies Strong spatial policy and community energy management + Decrease by HEMS Decrease by BEMS Current ++ Increase for local supply and use ++ LCS_integrateed Both low-carbon techs and strong planning for CEMS Compact distribution Decrease by HEMS Decrease by BEMS

29 Evidence Based Policy Design for Integrative SDGs Policies from Local Energy Projects Green Education Circular Business Green Equality Town Planning for efficient and resilient local energy Forestry Restoration German Style Stadt Verge

30 Energy NIES Solution-Oriented Research Programs and SDGs Pilot Project Future Extension Equity Cities Trade off(-) Synergy(+) Education Economy Climate Partnership

31 Research Strategies for Evidence-Based Policymaking by Bridging the Gap between Stakeholders and Research Communities Solution design and development of green cities and regions by back-casting from the future. 2. Social monitoring and modelling challenges for sustainable cities

32 Toward Smart Urban and Industrial Energy Management (Smart Electric and Thermal Demand Management System) Regional Network Networking with regional and locale energy supply system 地域発電事業者 Compact low carbon neighborhood transition BEMS HEMS House DR DR HEMS House House HEMS 発電予測 電力推移グラフ 熱量推移グラフ ガス消費グラフ 再生可能エネルギー 発電管理設備管理需給管理 エネルギーセンター Electric and Thermal Energy Management 発電機の経済的運転に寄与 DR クラウド蓄電池制御 BEMS DR DR DR DR Demand Management Hotel Collective Energy Cloud Storage and Control System DR BEMS BEMS 学校 DR DR Agriculture DR HEMS Public Office Agricultureリ Houses DR Efficient Energy Demand Management 大量データ 情報の収集 消費電力データ 天気 イベント情報 FEMS 複雑な法則やパターンの抽出 分析 B D C A 予測 制御 Event Design of ADR Action Incentive Price Control FEMS 32

33 Action framework of urban monitoring system in Asia Advanced internet security technologies effectively manage and protect the data Excellent recovery data collection capability Relationship analysis between human behavior and energy use Robust Data Traffic under 2 Uncertain Condition Collecting Electricity Data 1 Monitoring Electricity Data Integrative Analysis of Multi- Sectoral Data 3 Analysis of collected data Visualization Data Center (Indonesia/ Japan) Energy Meters Sensor for human activity Data access Analysis 4 Promoting Low Carbon Activities/Behavior Lightings AC Production Line System Design through User Participation Residential Commercial Industrial Green Room (Management center) Tablets 33

34 Electricity consumption Monitoring results in Bogor 34

35 Future Target 2; Data Analysis Aggregation for Urban Energy Transition Monitoring Data 時間電力消費量 [kwh] Time series regression analysis Future energy demand prediction models under climate change impacts Complementary Multi sectoral characteristic estimation Area No of Persons Type of Activities Building Type Surrounding m2 - Extensive estimation model for Muti-sectoral characteristics; such as building and life stypes Development of an energy demand prediction model combined with buildings information 35

36 From time series analysis to areal modeling Time series inventory 平均 日変動 期間変動をモデル化 DR や買い替え効果をモデル化し 検証 空間展開 Model development for Bogor City Temporal-spatial model 対策効果 地理情報やアンケート結果から 潜在セクターを推定し モニタリング結果を空間に紐づけ ベイジアンネットによる確率モデルを開発 地理情報からエネルギー消費を変動含め 推計 広域化 Expansion to Jabotabek region タンゲラン人口 : 住居 : ブカシ人口 : 住居 : ジャカルタ人口 : 住居 : ボゴール周辺人口 : 住居 : 開発したモデルに必要な統計等データをジャポダベックで収集 得られたデータに開発した確率モデル適用し ジャポダベック地域全体へ展開 地域推計 排出量 時間 (every hour) 紐づけするデータは平均 日変化 期間変化とし 組み合わせることで 地域のエネルギ 消費を時間単位で可視化 CO2 排出ポテンシャルマップを作成 対策の効果は時系列分析でインベントリ化 対策の実施率を行動モデルとして確率モデル化 エネルギー種ごとに排出のポイントをモデル化 GOSAT サテライトサイトの結果と比較し 補完 原因推定 36

37 37Traffic monitoring plan Goal: Eco-friendly and More Comfortable City Data Oriented Innovation Center Phase1 Visualize traffic congestion Visualize traffic congestion and travel time data by using several smart phones as GPS sensor on vehicle. <Sensing> <Target Vehicle> <Collection and output > <View> App. Smartphone App. Traffic data with GHG info. GPS sensor Smartphone (Android) Public Bus (TransPakuan) The target: 20 vehicles to be arranged Phase2 : Calculate traffic volume With CCTV Positioning info. Time and speed Schedule (Tentative) 1.Preparation (~Feb,2015) 2.App. Installation 3.Monitoring (Mid. of Mar) 4.1 st Report (End of Mar) Phase3 : Suggest Environ impact in traffic congestion With environment sensor 37

38 Locally suitable scenario development 5 Many local LCS scenarios have been developed with limited statistics and default parameters from national or international information. Such scenarios may not reflect local conditions properly. We combines modeling with monitoring of local activity so that we can propose more suitable mitigation scenario and Action plans for a city/region. Wider questionnaire survey is also adopted in order to supplement the monitoring. Energy Monitoring Current and future energy consumption pattern Energy saving potential + Questionnaire survey Transport Monitoring Transport structure Vehicle speed Fuel efficiency etc. Statistics The model to project future scenarios: ExSS/AFOLUA Energy technologies Industry Transport Current environmental initiative Energy Demand Energy Supply Population Waste Agriculture GHG emissions Land use and Forestry Locally suitable mitigation scenarios GHG emissions (ktco2eq) Projected GHG emissions BaU Land use change Energy - Transport Energy - Commercial 2025 CM -21% Waste management Energy - Industry Energy - Residential Contribution to emission reduction From Model Low Emission City Conversion of Fuel Oil to Gas for Public Transportation: 21ktCO2eq City Of Park: 57ktCO2eq Bus Rapid Transportation System, Pedestrian Facilities, and Bicycle Track: 398ktCO2eq LED for Street Lamp, Green Building Concept, and Eco-campus: 343ktCO2eq Renewable energy: 250ktCO2eq Waste collection and recycling: 47ktCO2eq Industry energy efficiency improvement: 47ktCO2eq Mitigation potential Policy actions Roadmap and investment 38

39 Fukushima Shinchi Tablet Network as a Social Monitoring and Activity Support System Local Energy Assist Electricity senor:sensor networked with server and tablets Dual Direction ICT Communication System distributer Energy Consumtion Real time monitoring Activity Ranking Incentives for efficient energy saving activities Local Life Assist Emergency Public Service Dual-direction information sharing system Health Local Event 役場 Community Information Assist GIS Maps Survey Function Bulletin Board Multi user information sharing system Frequent questionnaire system Information sharing among uses Electric Message 39

40 Interactive Eco-policy Planning System in Asia Fukushima Shinchi Township National Institute for Env. Studies Community Assist Tablet Network Energy Assist Life Assist Community Information Assist Planning for Sustainable Future Local Needs Regional Environment Information Urban Spatial Analysis Local environment diagnosis Simulation for recovery roadmap 復興まちづくりのシミュレーション Integrated Modelling Future scenario assessment Tech. and policy inventory -low carbon tech -circulation tech -industrial symbiosis -policy / regulation -land use control 40

41 Research Scope of Theme 1; Scientific Guidelines for SDGs Future Cities Local Diagnosis, SDGs Design and Solution 4 Intersectoral Organization Systems 1Local Diagnosis For Seventeen SDGs resource and problems 2SDGs Selection and Design; inclusive goal designs 3SDGs solution design and evaluation; integrative projects participation process 5 Methodologies for Gener- Alizatoin -indicators -theory -solutions 41

42 Strategic research perspectives for sustainable future 1.Solution design and development of green cities and regions by back-casting from the future. Policy Planning and Project Design System to integrate Back-casting Simulation and Forecasting Policies and Technology Systems Generalization toward Guidelines from Demonstrative Pilot Cases 2. Social monitoring and modelling challenges for sustainable cities Emerging Academic Challenge to utilize IOT Innovation 42

43 Selected list of recent publications in the related topics Seiya Maki, Shuichi Ashina, Minoru Fujii, Tsuyoshi Fujita, et.al (2018); Energy consumption monitoring system and integrative time series analysis models - case study in the green city demonstration project in Bogor City, Indonesia, Frontiers of Energy Remi Chandran, Tsuyoshi Fujita, et.al.(2018); Expert networks as science-policy interlocutors in the Implementation of a Monitoring Reporting and Verification (MRV) system, Frontiers of Energy, in press Yi Dou, Takuya Togawa, Liang Dong, Minoru Fujii, Satoshi Ohnishi, Hiroki Tanikawa, Tsuyoshi Fujita (2018) Innovative planning and evaluation system for district heating using waste heat considering spatial configuration: A case in Fukushima, Japan. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 128, Yujiro Hirano, Kei Gomi, Shogo Nakamura, Yukiko Yoshida, Daisuke Narumi, Tsuyoshi Fujita (2017) Analysis of the impact of regional temperature pattern on the energy consumption in the commercial sector in Japan. Energy and Buildings, 149, Yujiro Hirano, Tsuyoshi Fujita (2016) Simulating the CO2 reduction caused by decreasing the air conditioning load in an urban area. Energy and Buildings, 114, Yong Geng, Tsuyoshi Fujita, et.al. (2016) Recent progress on innovative eco-industrial development. Journal of Cleaner Production, 114, 1-10 Hiroto Shiraki, Shuichi Ashina, Yasuko Kameyama, Seiji Hashimoto, Tsuyoshi Fujita (2016) Analysis of optimal locations for power stations and their impact on industrial symbiosis planning under transition toward lowcarbon power sector in Japan. Journal of Cleaner Production, 114, Satoshi Ohnishi, Minoru Fujii, Tsuyoshi Fujita, et.al. (2016) Comparative analysis of recycling industry development in Japan following the Eco-Town program for eco-industrial development. Journal of Cleaner Production, 114, Takuya Togawa, Tsuyoshi Fujita, et.al. (2016) Integrating GIS databases and ICT applications for the design of energy circulation systems. Journal of Cleaner Production, 114, Minoru Fujii, Tsuyoshi Fujita, et.al. (2016) Possibility of developing low-carbon industries through urban symbiosis in Asian cities. Journal of Cleaner Production, 114, Thank you for your Attention 43