Will the world run out of resources?

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1 CENTRE FOR GREEN GROWTH Will the world run out of resources? Jorgen Randers Professor emeritus Climate strategy BI Norwegian Business School World Resources Forum 217 Geneva, October Jorgen Randers Randers 1 1

2 The Limits to Growth (LTG): Twelve scenarios for the 21st century, warning against growth beyond the carrying capacity of small planet Earth.

3 One sad future: Resource crisis (LTG Sc 1) 3: Industrial output 5: Nonrenewable resources : Food output : Population : Pollution level Year 21 Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 3 year update, 24 J Randers 3

4 A better future: Sustainability (LTG Sc 9) 5 5: Nonrenewable resources 5 3: Industrial output : Food output 5 5 1: Population : Pollution level Year 21 4 Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 3 year update, 24 J Randers 4

5 252 A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years A forecast of global developments to 252, predicting that global warming will exceed +2 deg C in mid-century See

6 The five regions used in the 252 forecast Region Population 21 GDP 21 GDP per person 21 (billion people) (trillion $ pr year) (1 $ pr person-year) US, China 1,3 1 7 OECD-less-US (1), BRISE (2) 2, ROW (3) 2,1 8 4 Sum world 6, (1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc (2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies (3) The remaining ca 14 countries of the world J Randers 6 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 212

7 Gpersons 1 World population will peak in 24 % / yr 5, 8 Population ( scale) 4, 6 3, 4 Birth rate 2, 2 Death rate (scale ) 1, g update GAG , Figure 4-1 Population World 197 to 25 Source: Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, 212 and Goluke, J Randers 7

8 Crude birth rate (in % per yr) Fertility will continue its spectacular decline 4,5 Crude birth rate (in % per year) USA 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 Solid: Historical decline in the number of children per woman Dashed: Future decline in the number of children per woman OECD World RoW BRISE China OECD World RoW BRISE China USA 1,,5, GDP per person (1 $ per person-year) J Randers 8 Source: Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, 212 and Goluke, 216

9 World GDP will grow more slowly than before T$ / yr 25 2 Population (scale ) Gpersons 9, 7,5 1$/yr 5 4 GDP ( scale) 6, ,5 1 5 GDP per pperson (scale ) 3, 1, g update GAG 216 Figure 4-3 (modified): Gross Domestic Product World 197 to 25 Definition: GDP = Population multiplied with GDP per inhabitant, Source: Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, 212 and Goluke, J Randers 9

10 GDP growth rate will decline towards zero Rate of growth in GDP per person per year (in % / yr) CHINA ROW BRISE OECD USA J Randers 1 Source: Ozgun O et al, Future of Spaceship Earth Project, DNV GL report

11 There will be huge regional differences 36 Consumption per person (in 1 PPP US$ per person per year) USA 3 OECD China 24 World 18 BRISE RoW Source: Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, 212 and Goluke, J Randers 11

12 Efficiency will rise & energy use peak in 23 Gtoe / yr 25 toe / M$ 5 T$ / yr 25 2 GDP (scale ) Energy use ( scale) Energy intensity = Energy use per unit of GDP (scale ) g update J Randers 12 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212

13 World use of fossil fuels will peak in 225 Gtoe / yr 9, Fossil use Gtoe / y 14 7,5 Fossil use (scale ) 12 6, 4,5 3, Renewable energy use ,5 g update Nuclear use, J Randers 13 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212

14 Cost of solar will fall more, installations grow Source: J Randers 14

15 CO 2 emissions from energy will peak in 225 GtCO2 / yr 45 tco2 / toe 4, Gtoe/yr Climate intensity = CO2 per unit of energy (scale ) CO2 emissions ( scale) 3, Energy use (scale ) 2, 1 9 1, 5 g update ,. J Randers 15 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212

16 The temperature will peak at + 2,5 C in 28 C 3, Temperature rise over 185 (in C) 2,5 2, 1,5 ESCIMO The 252 with forecast 216 1, CO2 emissions,5 History NOAA, ,5 g update 216 Source: Randers et al 216, ESCIMO, Earth System Dynamics Journal, doi:1.5194/esd J Randers 16

17 Coal - and oil - will peak in 22s. Gas in 23s Gtoe / yr 9, Fossil use Gtoe / y 14 7,5 Fossil use (scale ) 12 6, 1 8 4,5 Oil use 6 3, Coal use Gas use 4 1,5 g update 216 2, J Randers 17 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212

18 There will be enough food to cover demand but not need Gt / yr 12 Mha 25 t/ha-yr Cultivated land (scale ) Food production ( scale) Gross yield (scale ) Figure 6-1: Food Production World 197 to 25 g update GAG 216 Source: Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, 212 and Goluke, J Randers 18

19 There will be enough biocapacity Ggha Total biocapacity ( scale) Ggha Non-energy footprint (scale ) Unused biocapacity (scale ) 3 g update J Randers 19 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212

20 The share of GDP in resource supply will grow towards 25 Source Harald Sverdrup, WORLD6, personal comunication, 217 J Randers 2

21 More unavoidable costs will slow consumption T$ / yr Traditional investment (25% of GDP) Unavoidable spending on environment, climate, repair and inequity GDP Consumption Figure 4-4: Production, Consumption and Investment World 197 to 25 g update GAG 216 Source: Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, 212 and Goluke, J Randers 21

22 What could be done to create a better world? Phase out the use of coal, oil and gas in an organised and well-planned manner by 25. This single action would cut global GHG emissions by 7% Stopping the use of fossil fuels would entail 1. Shift to sun and wind for electricity 2. Shift to electric transport (cars, trains, trucks, and ferries) 3. Shift to electric heating (with heat pumps) like cooling with air conditioners 4. Shift to industrial heating based on electricity, heat pumps, some waste and biomass All are technically possible and not very expensive (<+5%). J Randers 22

23 Phasing out fossil fuels by 25 The 252 forecast The renewable electricity scenario J Randers 23 Source: Randers et.al., 216 A user-friendly earth system model of low complexity: the ESCIMO system dynamics model of global warming towards 21

24 would keep temperature rise below +2 The 252 forecast The renewable electricity scenario J Randers 24 Source: Randers et.al., 216 A user-friendly earth system model of low complexity: the ESCIMO system dynamics model of global warming towards 21

25 and keep sea level rise below.7m The 252 forecast The renewable Electricity scenario J Randers 25 Source: Randers et.al., 216 A user-friendly earth system model of low complexity: the ESCIMO system dynamics model of global warming towards 21

26 How could fossils be phased out in practice? By banning investment in new fossil capacity: 1. Electricity: Ban all investment in new fossil capacity from 22 use the money for renewable energy (sun. wind, hydro) and infrastructure (storage and distribution) 2. Transport: Ban all purchase of new fossil vehicles from 225 use the money for electric vehicles, trains, ferries and infrastructure (charging) 3. Buildings and industry: Ban investment in badly insulated buildings from 22 and ban the use of fossil fuels for heating from 23 use the money to build well-insulated buildings heated/cooled with renewable power and heat-pumps or direct heat from sun and biomas J Randers 26

27 What should you do? 1. Continue your efforts to increase resource productivity And more generally, to reduce the footprint per person. 2. But change the rationale From saving the world from resource scarcity, to reducing climate emissions and helping the poor world grow without exceeding global resource availability. 3. Help accelerate the elimination of fossil fuels Which amounts to political action to help rapid electrification of the world J Randers 27

28 Something needs to be done! J Randers 28

29 The following slides are backups for potential use in the discussion J Randers 29

30 What does this mean technically speaking? It means replacing current fossil based solutions: 1. Replace coal- and gas-powered electricity plants with electricity from sun, wind, hydro and (some) biomass and build the necessary infrastructure (for storage and distribution) 2. Replace oil- and gas-powered vehicles with electric vehicles and build the necessary infrastructure (for charging) 3. Replace badly insulated buildings with well insulated buildings, and replace all fossil based heating and cooling with electric heat pumps, plus heat from sun and biomass J Randers 3

31 Not very expensive, mainly a restructuring Accelerating the transition to a world running on renewable electricity world requires a shift of some 2 % of the world s labour and capital from dirty to clean sectors For example shifting people: from building coal powered utilities to building windmills and solar panels from building fossil powered cars, trucks and buses to building electric vehicles from building big homes with thin walls to building slightly smaller homes with well-insulated walls and windows from installing oil and gas heaters to installing electric heatpumps running on renewable electricity (or solar heaters) J Randers 31

32 What could be done? J Randers Reduce man-made greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible starting in the rich world Ban investment in new coal, oil, and gas capacity from 22 build sun, wind, net, storage, electric cars, and heat pumps instead. 2. Help poor nations grow faster by copying the rapid industrialisation of Japan, Korea and China Build the nation according to plan and not according to profitability - using trade as a tool, not as a religion. 3. Reduce unemployment and inequity through more jobs Redistribution is more important than growth in rich nations where 8 % of the workforce is in services. Will require stronger unions, higher taxes on the rich, and limitations on the export of jobs. 4. Further slow population growth especially in the rich world through positive incentives Means more education, better health, and free contraceptives supported by financial incentives for fewer kids.

33 J Randers 33 So, what can you do to create a better world? a. Help the world focus on the real problem (which is the use of coal, oil and gas) - not on side issues b. Help the world focus on real solutions (which is to stop using fossil fuels, and redistribute income) - not on more growth or a higher carbon price c. Help the world understand that the real obstacle are the incumbents (workers and owners) of the dirty sectors, and lack of regulation of liberal markets d. Work for ample unemployment benefits for those who loose their job in the green shift e. Accept that this work will not buy you praise in business, in short-term politics, or in specialist scientific journals (so first create a safe income!)