2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

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1 217 Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Todd Onderdonk October 16, 217 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 24 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 216. This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading Factors Affecting Future Results in the Investors section of our website at This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved. 1

2 The energy equation People living standards energy needs 2

3 Key Energy Outlook Themes Energy is fundamental to standards of living Economics and policies impact the energy mix Developing nations lead gains in GDP and living standards O i l remains the world s primary fuel through 24 N atural gas grows more than any other energy source Technology has the highest potential and greatest uncertainty 3

4 Global Trends Continue to Evolve 125% Growth from 215 Level Percen t 1% 75% 5% 25% % x GDP +25% demand +1.8 billion people +1% CO 2 emissions -45% CO 2 intensity 4

5 Developing Nations Lead Population Growth Global Population Billion People 1 8 Non-OECD OECD

6 Purchasing Power and Middle Class Grow GDP Per Capita Thousand PPP Dollars Global Middle Class Billion People 5 4 Rest of World Latin America Other Asia Pacific 3 China 2 India $1k $3k >$4k 1 '15 '3 OECD Source: The Brookings Institution 6

7 Non-OECD Leads Economic Growth World GDP Trillion 21$ Growth Trillion 21$ % AAGR 8 Non-OECD 1.9% AAGR Africa Other AP 4 India 4 OECD Europe China 2 United States OECD Non-OECD 7

8 Demand Growth From Developing Nations 12 Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs Demand without Efficiency Growth Quadrillion BTUs 1 Energy Savings Americas 16 8 Mid East Africa 12 6 Non-OECD Other AP 8 4 Demand India 2 OECD China Non-OECD 8

9 Energy Fuels Human Development U.N. Human Development Index 214 Index 1. Norway United States.75 China Bangladesh India.5 Yemen Nigeria Energy Use per Capita (Thousand BTU/person/day) Source: United Nations, ExxonMobil estimates 9

10 Economics and policies impact the energy mix. 1

11 CO Energy 2 Emissions Mix Shifts Plateau to Lower-Carbon Fuels Global Energy Mix Percent Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Region Billion Tonnes 1% Other Renewables 4 8% Wind & Solar Nuclear 3 Non-OECD Coal 6% 2 4% Gas China 2% Oil 1 OECD % U.S

12 Two Paths to CO 2 Reduction United States Generation Share Percent Germany Generation Share Percent CO 2 Intensity of Generation g CO 2 /kwh generation 1% Oil Other Renewables 1% 6 25 Wind & Solar 75% Nuclear 75% % Gas 5% 2 25% 25% Coal % % United States Germany Sources: EIA, UBA 12

13 Oil remains the world s primary fuel through

14 Transportation and Chemicals Drive Growth Liquids Demand by Sector MBDOE Light Duty Chem Transportation Industrial Res/Comm Electricity Generation 14

15 Transportation Demand Fueled by Non-OECD By Sector Growth MBDOE MBDOE Rail NonOECD Aviation 8 OECD 5 Marine Heavy Duty 4 25 Net Light Duty Light Duty Heavy Duty Marine Aviation Rail 15

16 Personal Mobility Increases Penetration Vehicles Per Thousand People U.S. Car Sales by Class Percent 6 4 1% % Small 4 5% Mid-size 2 Motorcycles Large 25% Vans SUVs Europe South Korea Brazil China Indonesia India Cars Pick-ups %

17 Consumer Preference and Policy Determine Fleet Mix Fleet by Type Million Cars Light Duty Vehicle Demand MBDOE Vehicle Miles Traveled Trillion Miles 2 15 Gasoline Diesel Natural Gas & LPG Full Hybrid Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell '1 '15 '2 '25 '3 '35 '

18 Transportation Fuel Demand World United States MBDOE MBDOE Natural Gas Fuel Oil Other Jet Fuel Biodiesel 3 3 Diesel Ethanol Gasoline

19 Liquids Supply Highlights Technology Gains By Region MBDOE 12 By Type MBDOE 4 8 Other Non-OPEC Russia North America 2 4 OPEC OPEC Non-OPEC Tight Oil NGLs Deepwater Oil Sands Biofuels Other Conventional Crude and Condensate 19

20 All Scenarios Require Ongoing Development Liquids Supply/Demand MBDOE 12 1 Other NGLs 8 Tight Oil 6 4 Natural decline in the absence of further investment Deepwater Conventional Crude and Condensate New investment in supply required to offset natural decline and meet growing demand *Based on IEA sources; excludes biofuels 2

21 Liquids Trade Balance by Region MBDOE Net Imports Net Exports Local Production North America Latin America Africa Europe Russia/ Caspian Middle East Asia Pacific 21

22 Natural gas grows more than any other energy source. 22

23 Gas Demand Grows in All Sectors Gas Demand by Sector BCFD Electricity Generation Industrial Res/Comm Transportation 23

24 Electricity Demand Continues to Surge Electricity Demand by Region Thousand TWh Electricity Net Delivered by Type Thousand TWh China Other Renewables 6 4 Other Asia Pacific United States Europe 2 Wind & Solar Nuclear Gas 2 India 1 Coal Oil 24

25 Electricity Generation by Region Highlights Diversity Net Delivered Electricity Thousand TWh 1 8 Other Renewables Wind and solar Nuclear Gas Coal Oil U.S Europe China India Other AP Middle East Africa Rest of World 25

26 Natural Gas Supply By Production Type BCFD 6 By Delivery Type BCFD 6 Unconventional North America LNG 4 4 Pipeline 2 Conventional 2 Net Local Production

27 Gas Trade Balance by Region BCFD Net Imports Net Exports Local Production North America Latin America Africa Europe Russia/ Caspian Middle East Asia Pacific 27

28 Technology has the highest potential and greatest uncertainty. 28

29 Technology Helps Us Do More With Less Global Average Intensity Index CO 2 / Energy.6 Energy / GDP.4 CO 2 / GDP

30 Technology Contributes to the Fuel Mix Global Mix of Fuels 1% 75% Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro Unconventional Gas Gas 5% Deepwater, Oil Sands, Tight Oil Oil 25% Coal % Biomass Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (18-196) 3

31 Energy Use Evolves Over Time Global Mix of Fuels Quadrillion BTUs 75 Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro 5 Gas Oil 25 Coal Biomass Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (18-196) 31

32 For more information, visit exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook or download the ExxonMobil app 32