A Concise Environmental History of the 20th Century

Transcription

1 A Concise Environmental History of the 20th Century This lectures mo9o! This is the first =me in human history that we have altered ecosystems with such intensity, on such scale and with such speed. The intensity, scale and speed of changes were so great, that ma9ers that for millennia were local concerns, became global. 1

2 Ecosystem collapse in a nutshell: Easter Island story Today 2

3 So what are those ma9ers, now that became global? Today, there are 7.3 billion people inhabi=ng the planet earth, and according to UN (2012) medium fer=lity scenario, global human popula=on is expected reach at 9.6 billion in 2050 and at 10.9 billion in World s arable lands are largely degraded due to intensive fer=lizer use and erosion and arable land alloca=on for agricultural produc=on is reaching its limits (UNEP 2007). Most of the world s fisheries are overexploited and wild catches are decreasing (FAO 2014). The growing gap between oil produc=on and discoveries indicates that produc=on is heading towards peak (Ayres 2014, p. 69) and the share of unconven=onal fuel, namely shale gas, bitumen and tar in global fuel supply is increasing. It is expected that resource constraints, at best, will increase energy and commodity prices in the 21 st century and at worse, create an unstable economy (Jones et al. 2013). 3

4 There is emerging research indica=ng towards possible links between social unrest, regional wars and impact of climate change on water and agricultural produc=on (see for example Gleick 2014; Kelley et al. 2015).... tell and discuss, other resource deple=on and degrada=on ma9ers, at the global scale (ex. biodiversity loss, water scarcity... etc.). Indicators of human overshoot of the planetary capacity According to the ecological footprint sustainability accoun=ng framework, humanity s resource demand has overpassed the planetary carrying capacity by mid 1970s and since then has reached to one and a half planets (WWF 2014), indica=ng that the current resource extrac=on and pollu=on loading at global scale is more than one and a half of what the earth s produc=ve ecosystems can accommodate. 4

5 Also observe and analyze you personal ecological footprint, for example at: h9p:// 5

6 More recently, earth system scien=sts have iden=fied nine planetary boundaries which define a safe opera=ng space for the humanity and they argue that the three of them, climate change, rate of biodiversity loss and the interference with the nitrogen cycle has already been crossed by human ac=vity, crea=ng unacceptable risks of abrupt environmental change from local to global scales (Rockström and Steffen, et al. 2009). 6

7 IPCC (2014) warns that human impact on the climate system is clear, many changes observed since 1950 are unprecedented over decades to millennia, and climate change will amplify the exis=ng risks and create new risks for human and natural systems. Boğaziçi University,

8 Boğaziçi University, 2016 See below simulator to observe the basic dynamics: h9ps:// climate- bathtub- simula=on/ Or to see how humanity upsets the nature's balance: h9ps:// v=kq9hpl9dl98 8

9 Basic dynamics: Carbon dioxide emissions Atmospheric Carbon dioxide Carbon dioxide absorption How about the local scale? Observed from a local perspec=ve, global risks may appear distant in =me as well as in space, therefore can be perceived less persuasive as a threat to survival by ordinary ci=zens. However, problems caused by the systema=c growth in consump=on par=cularly at the developed world, and the corresponding growth for demand of natural resources at the underdeveloped world create impact at local levels, building new socio- ecological pressures in new commodity fron,ers (Moore 2000). 9

10 As the resource limited world is plundered with growth, the fron=ers of resource extrac=on and waste disposal are reaching at the farthest corners and is being resisted by counter- movements of ci=zens and indigenous groups (Mar=nez- Alier et al. 2010). Global Atlas of Environmental Jus=ce (EJAtlas, 2015) reports almost 1400 cases of environmental conflicts in seven con=nents rising mostly around extrac=ve industries and nuclear plant construc=on, waste and water management, infrastructure development, biodiversity conserva=on and other industrial plant projects. For environmental conflicts at global scale, see: h9ps://ejatlas.org/ To see conflicts at na=onal scale: h9p:// 10

11 Increasingly Growing Human Consump=on: A Historical Look Economists measure the size of economies by summing the total value of goods and services brought to market or otherwise officially noted. The addi=on yields a single figure, the gross domes=c product or GDP. Energy accoun=ng can be an alterna=ve measure of world consump=on. GDP=per capita GDP x popula=on 11

12 Evolu=on of World GDP, Evolu=on of World per capita GDP since

13 Over the last five hundred years While GDP increased about 120 =mes, per capita GDP has increased about 9 =mes. Therefore, popula=on has increased about 13 =mes. Evolu=on of World GDP

14 Evolution of world per capita GDP Over the last firy years While world GDP has increased about 6 =mes, world per capita GDP has increased about 2.5 =mes. Therefore popula=on has increased about 2.4 =mes. 14

15 Evolu=on of World popula=on since 1500 The structure and the pa9ern of growth If a quan=ty grows by frac=ons of itself, it yields increasingly increasing behavior pa9erns. growth constant or variable (per time) population (capita) population growth (capita per time) population growth (t) = population (t) * growth constant 15

16 If the growth is by constant frac=ons, the generated pa9ern is called exponen=al or geometric. Exponen=al growth is uncontrolled, hard to perceive its future dimensions, devasta=ng. In exponen=al growth, there is a fixed doubling =me which can be calculated according to the rule of seventy applies: doubling =me = 70/ growth percentage Milestones in world energy history The discovery of fire. The agricultural (neoli=c) revolu=on years ago marks an abundance in available soma=c energy. The soma=c energy regime con=nues un=l the industrial revolu=on with minor supplement from wind and hydraulic power. Prior to industrial revolu=on, steam engine was discovered (18th century) which created the exosoma=c energy regime. Electrifica=on of the globe (1890s). 16

17 World energy consump=on World per capita energy consump=on

18 How many energy slaves do we use? In a burst of effort, the human body can muster 100 wa9s of power equal to 100 joules/man/sec (which is approximately liring 10 kg for 1 meter in one seconds). [Note that here I modify the argument in the text to arrive at the conclusion with calcula=ons] World energy consump=on in year 2000 is million tons of oil equivalent (TOE). 1 TOE=42*10 9 joules World energy consump=on in year 2000 is 42*10 19 joules. That makes about 6*10 10 joules per capita per year which is equal to 2*10 3 joules/man/sec. Then we use 20 energy slaves!! Working 24 hours a day. A North- South Look at Human Consump=on 18

19 Boğaziçi University, 2016 World Popula=on Growth Popupaltion (billions) Least developed countries Less developed regions More developed regions Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, Volume III: Analytical Report 19

20 Boğaziçi University, 2016 Unequal Shares in Consump=on Source: United Nations Human Developement Report 2006 Boğaziçi University,

21 Lecture summary Intensity, scale and speed of current environmental problems. Local problems and their global pa9erns Growth in scale of world material consump=on. The =me dependent pa9ern of world material consump=on. The inequality in consump=on and unequal share in resource use and environmental impact. 21