Concentrating solar power and renewable energy policy instruments

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1 Concentrating solar power and renewable energy policy instruments Max Thabiso Edkins 3 September 2010 Energy Research Centre University of Cape Town 1 ERC

2 A thought experiment: elephants in KNP 2 ERC

3 What about humans in the world? World to begin human cull? Lets hope we are more intelligent than elephants 3 ERC

4 Climate change mitigation is urgent Time to bend the curve is short but options to reduce exist 4 ERC

5 Climate change mitigation is urgent Time to bend the curve is short but options to reduce exist 5 ERC

6 SA emissions by sector 20% - non-energy 80% - energy ERC 6 ERC

7 South Africa s s mitigation targets With financial, technology and capacity building support from the international community, this level of effort will enable South Africa s green house gas emissions to peak between 2020 and 2025, plateau for approximately a decade and decline in absolute terms thereafter. Peak Plateau Decline 7 ERC

8 SA pledge to deviate below BAU 42% 34% ERC 8 ERC

9 Renewable energy technologies 9 ERC

10 Characteristics and costs 10 ERC

11 Wind World US leading: 35 GW China added most in 2009: 13 GW Kenya (5MW) & Nicaragua (40MW) Offshore = 2GW (606MW in 2009) South Africa Darling 5.2MW in 2005 Proposals for 1,500 4,000 MW Technical potential : 80TWh 1 small-wind turbine manufacturer 11 ERC

12 Solar irradiation as driver for CSP rollout 12 ERC

13 Concentrating Solar Power World 354 MW in the 1980s Growth in last years 2009: Spain 220MW & US 7MW 2 GW under construction 15 GW in planning Abu Dhabi 100MW Morocco, Algeria & Egypt South Africa 25 kw Dish in 2002 Eskom s s 100 MW plant Proposals of MW Potential for local manufacture Technical potential is huge 13 ERC

14 RE policy incentives as a function of RE technology maturity 14 ERC

15 South African renewable energy policy Set 10,000GWh target by 2013 may have achieved 5% of this REFIT aimed at supporting more RE rollout but capped by IRP and no Independent Systems Operator 1mill by 2014 & 5mill by 2020 solar water heater targets but deployment has been slow 15 ERC

16 A number of barrier still to overcome 16 ERC

17 Learning rates & LCE With the growth of PV globally the learning ration should be upped to 40%? Supercritical coal in the south African context probably costs more 17 ERC

18 At least 27% of electricity needs to be from renewables by 2030 Baseline only coal 27% RE alternative Wind: 5.5GW in 2020; 15 GW in 2030 CSP: 3.5 GW in 2020; 17 GW in ERC

19 Relative cost, GHG savings and employment SWH rollout: 1 mill by 2014, 4 mill by 2020 & approaching 10 mill by ERC

20 Conclusion SA is on the brink of having to make massive energy infrastructure investments The world has changed (and is changing increasingly rapidy ) Carbon emissions and the carbon footprint of goods and services are now shaping economic activities (including international trade agreements / barriers) RE systems provide an economically and socially appropriate investment choice AND position SA in a favourable situation Better to be pro-active than reactive International finance and funding is available 20 ERC

21 let us not be the elephant in the room! 21 ERC

22 SASTELA 22 ERC

23 SASTELA support for CSP Peak, mid-merit merit and base supply Grid management Climate mitigation target lowest life-cycle carbon Cost gap will close within 10 years Easier financing no long-term risks Most jobs Local industry potential Can build 600MW over next few years Ask for target of 2GW by 2016 Aim to become baseload supply by 2020 Dominate electricity supply by ERC