Expanding Transmission Capacity: Options and Implications. Jennifer Curran Director Transmission Strategy April 30, 2009

Transcription

1 Expanding Transmission Capacity: Options and Implications Jennifer Curran Director Transmission Strategy April 30, 2009

2 The Transmission Design Challenge General Problem Statement for Transmission Study Minimize transmission capital costs, generation capital costs and system energy costs while maintaining system reliability Problem solution subject to sometimes competing constraints or goals: Minimize investment risk (seek shorter payback horizon) Maximize carbon reduction (replace coal production) Maximize local economic development (install wind directly within RPS State) Maximize economic value (seek lowest cost to customer) 2

3 Policy Matters The level of uncertainty that exists around future policy decisions creates difficulty for those involved in the planning function and causes hesitancy for those with the resources to undertake transmission expansion projects. To minimize the risk involved with planning a system under such conditions, the process must consider projects in the context of all potential outcomes Identifying transmission plans that result in the least regrets regardless of policy decisions will help to alleviate the impacts of those future outcomes 3

4 Transmission Planning Approach is Evolving In order to achieve its planning objectives, the Midwest ISO has transformed its transmission expansion planning model; this process will continue to mature as experience is gained Reliability-Based Model Focused primarily on grid reliability Typically considers a short time horizon Seeks to minimize transmission build Value-Based Model Focused on value while maintaining reliability Reflects appropriate project time scales Seeks to identify transmission infrastructure that maximizes value Identification of the comprehensive value of projects 4

5 Midwest ISO is actively engaged in planning from regional to national level RGOS I MTEP & RGOS II JCSP EWITS RGOS = Regional Generation Outlet Study MTEP= Midwest ISO Transmission Expansion Plan JCSP = Joint Coordinated System Plan EWITS = Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study 5

6 Value-Based Planning Process The below process flow represents the steps undertaken to develop top-down, value-based transmission plans to support economic and reliable energy delivery under a wide range of potential energy policy outcomes or Future scenarios Step 1 Multi-Future Regional Resource Forecasting Tracking and Carry Forward Step 2 Site Generation and Place in Powerflow Model Step 7 MTEP Cost Allocation and Delivery to Board of Directors Step 3 Design Prelim. Trans. Plans for each Future Step 6 Perform Reliability Assessment / Final Design Step 4 Test Transmission Plans for Robustness Step 5 Consolidate Transmission Plans 6

7 Renewable Portfolio Standard Impacts on Generation Requirements Additional Capacity Requirement (MW) ,406 71,606 72,385 45,000 58,893 15,000 8,400-14,400 2,381 21,600-1, ,800 5, Reference* Renewable Current Queue** Nuclear Coal Hydro CC CT/Peaking Wind Demand Response Renewable case reflects 20% Midwest ISO Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) 20% national RPS would result in increased levels of wind generation in Midwest ISO to meet Eastern Interconnect Goals * Reference case reflects RPS as of October 2007 for the Midwest ISO footprint; current RPS is 22,000 MW ** Requests under evaluation in queue as of March 11, 2009; wind includes 165 MW of other renewables 7

8 Different policy assumptions result in very different siting outcomes with different transmission system requirements. 8

9 Existing Generation Also Impacts the Outcome 42% 30% 41% 28% 32% 32% 53% 30% 24% 14% 15% 1% 5% NYISO 13% 10% 5% 0% ISO - NE 4% 4% 0% 47% 62% WEST 30% 58% 7% MISO 4% 3% 3% 26% 19% 5% 0% 3% 20% 4% 7% 3% 4% CALISO 70% 6% 2% 2% 2% SPP 40% 38% PJM Coal Nuclear Gas 20% 5% 1% 4% 0% ERCOT 12% 7% 0% 3% SOUTH Hydro Wind Other Data Source: 2007 EIA-860 Annual Electric Generator Report 9

10 The transmission overlay for the Reference Case (Status Quo) establishes the need for some backbone development 10

11 While the 20% Wind Energy Case highlights the need for substantial transmission backbone development 11

12 Conceptual Progression of Plans 1 year Planning Horizons 20 year Queue RGOS JCSP 12

13 Queue Development Continues with near term upgrades 1 year Planning Horizons 20 year Queue 13

14 Until RGOS Aggregate Plans better inform 1 year Planning Horizons 20 year RGOS 14

15 Consistent with an inter-regional plan with a longer term view 1 year Planning Horizons 20 year JCSP 15

16 State Regulatory Initiatives State regulators are increasingly working on a regional or subregional basis to address cost allocation questions within the context of regional plans UMTDI: Upper Midwest Transmission Development Initiative 5 State initiative (ND, SD, IA, MN, WI) 2 goals by year end 2009 Regional Generation Outlet Plans to meet RPS Cost Allocation for those plans CARP: MISO-wide state initiative to review Cost Allocation and Regional Planning principles Eye towards impact of existing and possible state and federal renewable standards, and carbon reduction legislation 16

17 Conditions Precedent to Increased Transmission Build A robust business case for the plan Increased consensus around regional energy policy A regional tariff that matches who benefits with who pays over time Cost recovery mechanisms that reduce financial risk 17