Assessing the need for low-carbon technologies using an energy systems approach

Transcription

1 Assessing the need for low-carbon technologies using an energy systems approach Paul E. Dodds UCL Energy Institute, University College London Presented at the All-Energy Conference, Glasgow, on 4 th May 2016

2 What do we mean by energy systems? Electricity system? Energy consumption in a city? All national energy flows? How systems for providing energy interact? 2

3 What do we mean by energy systems? H 3

4 What do I mean by energy systems? Energy security Innovation Environment Behaviour Energy resources Transitions Energy technologies Economics People Demand trends 4

5 UK GHG emissions (CO2e) Why are energy systems important? Non-CO2 CO

6 Energy system models Energy White Paper 2003: the cost impact of effectively tackling climate change would be very small equivalent in 2050 to just a small fraction (0.5% 2%) of the nation s wealth, as measured by GDP. Energy White Paper 2007: Our modelling indicates that excluding nuclear is a more expensive route to achieving our carbon goal, even though in our modelling the costs of alternative technologies are assumed to fall over time as they mature. 6

7 MINING LIMITS & TRADE Assessing Energy, Economy, Engineering & Environment (E4) Interactions ENGINEERING AND ECONOMY AVAILABILITY/CHOICE OF TECHNOLOGIES GDP & CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS Energy system models ENERGY SERVICE DEMANDS ENVIRONMENTAL LIMITS ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS ENVIRONMENT

8 Energy system models 8

9 GW Electricity generation capacity in three 80% GHG scenarios 80% #1 80% #2 80% #3 Imports Hydrogen Nuclear Hydro Geothermal Wave Wind Tidal Solar Biomass CCS Biomass Manufactured fuels OIL CCS Oil Natural Gas CCS Natural Gas Coal CCS Coal 9

10 GHG emissions (MtCO2e) Trade-offs between sectors 700 GHG Emissions by Sector Transport Services Residential Non-energy use Industry Electricity Hydrogen Processing Upstream Agriculture & Land Use 10

11 Selected Models At UCL SPACE Hall & Buckley (2016) classify over 100 UK energy system models Models vary significantly: Grid Reference, GIS District/ Urban- Scale Multi- Regional Single- Region SEDSO EXPANSE SHIPmod SmartCED D-EXPANSE ETI ESME TIAM-UCL ETM-UCL UK MARKAL UKTM-UCL BLUE SpDEAM DEAM EleServe DyNEmo Spatial detail Temporal resolution Sectoral coverage Geographic coverage Human behavior representation Policy mechanisms Included technologies Simulation/optimisation etc. Static Multiperiod, Annual Multiperiod, Seasonal / Day Phases Hourly Dynamics Sub-Hourly Dynamics TIME Image: Based on Li, 2013, Spatially explicit techno-economic optimisation modelling of UK heating futures

12 Selected Models At UCL SPACE Energy System Optimisation Models (ESOMs) Grid Reference, GIS District/ Urban- Scale Multi- Regional SEDSO SHIPmod ETI ESME TIAM-UCL ETM-UCL SpDEAM DEAM Pros: Capture all energy sectors and cross-sector interactions Cons: Often have a coarse level of spatial detail (important for district heating) Single- Region EXPANSE SmartCED D-EXPANSE UK MARKAL UKTM-UCL BLUE EleServe DyNEmo Static Multiperiod, Annual Multiperiod, Seasonal / Day Phases Hourly Dynamics Sub-Hourly Dynamics TIME Image: Based on Li, 2013, Spatially explicit techno-economic optimisation modelling of UK heating futures

13 Selected Models At UCL SPACE Grid Reference, GIS District/ Urban- Scale SEDSO SpDEAM DEAM Detailed models with specific sectoral focus (e.g. electricity networks, building stock) Pros: Detailed market segmentation and technology descriptions Multi- Regional Single- Region EXPANSE SHIPmod SmartCED D-EXPANSE ETI ESME TIAM-UCL ETM-UCL UK MARKAL UKTM-UCL BLUE EleServe DyNEmo Cons: Usually limited or zero cross-sector interactions (handled as boundary inputs) Static Multiperiod, Annual Multiperiod, Seasonal / Day Phases Hourly Dynamics Sub-Hourly Dynamics TIME Image: Based on Li, 2013, Spatially explicit techno-economic optimisation modelling of UK heating futures

14 This session David Joffe UK decarbonisation strategies Mike Colechin UK transitions to a lowcarbon energy system from energy modelling Keith Bell Innovation in new technologies 14

15 This session Yodaly Sierra-Rubio The EU and the UK Tara Schmidt Forecasts for the next 15 years 15