Global Change and Sustainable Water Use in the German Elbe region - A Review of Simulation Results of the GLOWA-Elbe project

Transcription

1 NEWATER: May 2007, Prag: Uncertainty workshop Global Change and Sustainable Water Use in the German Elbe region - A Review of Simulation Results of the GLOWA-Elbe project Frank Wechsung, PIK

2 Content 1.GLOWA-Elbe: Two Topics for One Basin in Three Phases 2.Principal Approach 3.Challenges for GLOWA-Elbe 4.Product Line 5.Our Invitation to stakeholders

3 1. GLOWA-Elbe: General Objective: Adjustment of water management strategies to global change Topics: Surface water quality Surface water quantity Phases: Exploration of the basin Solutions for the basin Transfer of Tools (confirmed by BMBF) involving Czech partners and institutions

4 Content 1.Two Topics for One Basin in Three Phases 2.Principal Approach 3.Challenges for GLOWA-Elbe 4.Product Line 5.Our Invitation to stakeholders

5 2. Principal Approach 1 Scenario 2 Indicators & criteria 3 Impact 4 Evaluation Addressing Society Deficits Perception Evaluation Objectivity for Sustainable Development

6 Content 1.GLOWA-Elbe: Two Topics for One Basin in Three Phases 2.Principal Approach 3.Challenges for GLOWA-Elbe 4.Product Line 5.Our Invitation to stakeholders

7 . Challenges - Uncertainty Beside others - Wet or Dry climate change? - Discounting of future benefits? (typical between 3 and 5%, Nordhaus 0.1 %) Adaptation strategies have to be beneficial in the near future under current and future climate

8 Content 1.GLOWA-Elbe: Two Topics for One Basin in Three Phases 2.Principal Approach 3.Challenges for GLOWA-Elbe 4.Product Line 5.Our Invitation to stakeholders

9 4. Product line Boxes of the modelling system Regionalization of global change Future climate (STAR) Land use and regional water balance Hydrological cycle and crop yields (SWIM) Land use (LAND USE SCANNER) Water management (WBALMO) Inflow Evaporation Wetlands Nutrient load (MONERIS) Point source: Point source: Sewage plant Sealed surfaces Erosion agricultural sector (RAUMIS) Economics and demography (REGE) energy sector (KASIM) Water use Wetlands (MODAM) Households /business (HAUSHALT WASSER) (INDUSTRIE WASSER) Energy / Mining Water suppliers Mining Power plants Irrigation Minimal flow for conservation Atmospheric Deposition Drainage Surface denudation Groundwater Diffuse source / Sink: Wetlands Nutrient concentr. Phytoplankton Oxygen water technologies (KASIM) Agriculture / Irrigation Transport on inland waterways Transport on inland waterways Water quality (QSim)

10 4. Product line Regionalisation of global change Regionalization of global change Future climate (STAR) Land use and regional water balance Hydrological cycle and crop yields (SWIM) Land use (LAND USE SCANNER) Water management (WBALMO) Inflow Evaporation Wetlands Nutrient load (MONERIS) Point source: Point source: Sewage plant Sealed surfaces Erosion agricultural sector (RAUMIS) Economics and demography (REGE) energy sector (KASIM) Water use Wetlands (MODAM) Households /business (HAUSHALT WASSER) (INDUSTRIE WASSER) Energy / Mining Water suppliers Mining Power plants Irrigation Minimal flow for conservation Atmospheric Deposition Drainage Surface denudation Groundwater Diffuse source / Sink: Wetlands Nutrient concentr. Phytoplankton Oxygen water technologies (KASIM) Agriculture / Irrigation Transport on inland waterways Transport on inland waterways Water quality (QSim)

11 4. Product line Climate Elbe STAR2P Regionalization of global change Future climate (STAR) agricultural sector (RAUMIS) Economics and demography (REGE) energy sector (KASIM) STAR 2P Orlowski et al. 2006, PIK Change in mean yearly temperature [K ] 2046/ /2003 ( 831 German and Czech stations ) water technologies

12 4. Product line Climate Elbe STAR2P Yearly mean of the climatic water balance (P-Epot) for the Elbe basin, Three of hundert realisations: Dry, Median, Wet P-Epot ( mm ) Year Werner et al. 2006, PIK

13 4. Product line Climate Elbe REGE Regionalization of global change Future climate (STAR) agricultural sector (RAUMIS) Economics and demography (REGE) energy sector (KASIM) water technologies A1: Globalisation, B2: Regionalisation open society niche society Germany /2004 J. Blazejczak et al. 2006, DIW Population 10 6 Persons Labour Force 10 6 Persons Persons Employed 10 6 Persons Unemployed 10 6 Persons Unemployment Rate Percent GDP Volume in 10 9 Productivity in 10 3 per person Czech Rep. Population 10 6 Persons Labour Force 10 6 Persons Persons Employed 10 6 Persons Unemployed 10 6 Persons Unemployment Rate Percent GDP Volume in 10 9 CZK Productivity in 10 3 CZK per person ,5 43,3 38,9 4,4 10,1 2110,3 54, ,2 5,1 4,7 0,4 8,3 2467,6 524,4 A1 84,0 46,2 44,5 1,7 3,8 2897,0 65,1 A1 10,4 5,4 5,2 0,2 3,1 4914,6 940, B2 83,4 45,9 42,9 3,0 6,6 2677,9 62,4 B2 9,9 5,0 4,7 0,4 7,4 3663,2 784,9 A1 in Pct per year A1 0,1 0,4 0,8 2,0 1,1 2020/2004 0,1 B2 in Pct per year 0,3 0,7 4,4 3,7 B2 0,1 0,4 0,6 1,5 0,9-0,2-0,1-0,1 2,5 2,6

14 4. Product line Elbe SWAT SWIM Land use and regional water balance Hydrological cycle and crop yields (SWIM) Land use (LAND USE SCANNER) Conradt et al. 2006, PIK he simulation area with 2255 subbasins nd data transfer points for the coupling with WBalMo.

15 4. Product line Elbe SWAT SWIM Land use and regional water balance Hydrological cycle and crop yields (SWIM) Land use (LAND USE SCANNER) Conradt et al. 2006, PIK Hattermann et al. 2006, PIK he simulation area with 2255 subbasins nd data transfer points for the coupling with WBalMo.

16 4. Product line Elbe SWAT SWIM Land use and regional water balance Hydrological cycle and crop yields (SWIM) Land use (LAND USE SCANNER) x 100 Realisierungen Conradt et al. 2006, PIK

17 4. Product line Water Management X13 Regionalization of global change Future climate (STAR) Land use and regional water balance Hydrological cycle and crop yields (SWIM) Land use (LAND USE SCANNER) X3 Water management (WBALMO) Inflow Evaporation Wetlands Nutrient load (MONERIS) Point source: Point source: Sewage plant Sealed surfaces Erosion agricultural sector (RAUMIS) Economics and demography (REGE) energy sector (KASIM) Water use Wetlands (MODAM) Households /business (HAUSHALT WASSER) (INDUSTRIE WASSER) Energy / Mining Water suppliers Mining Power plants Irrigation Minimal flow for conservation Atmospheric Deposition Drainage Surface denudation Groundwater Diffuse source / Sink: Wetlands Nutrient concentr. Phytoplankton Oxygen water technologies (KASIM) Agriculture / Irrigation Transport on inland waterways Transport on inland waterways Water quality (QSim)

18 4. Product line Elbe - WBalMo Elbe profile: planning horizon 2010 Water management (WBALMO) 700 Inflow 600 Evaporation discharge [m³/s] Wetlands Water suppliers 100 Mining User Grenze D/CR Dresden Torgau Aken Barby Magdeburg Wittenberge Neu Darchau Wehr Geesthacht Power plants Reservoirs 114 MQ (500a / 2010) MNQ (500a / 2010) MQ (observed ) MNQ (observed ) Kaltofen et al. 2006, WASY Irrigation Minimal flow for conservation Transport on inland waterways Balance profiles Subregions

19 4. Product line Elbe-Moneris/ Elbe QSIM Nutrient load (MONERIS) Point source: Point source: Sewage plant Sealed surfaces Erosion Atmospheric Deposition Drainage Surface denudation Groundwater Diffuse source / Sink: Wetlands Nutrient concentr. Phytoplankton Oxygen Behrendt et al. 2006, IGB Changes of TP- and TN-concentration in the Elbe, Havel and Saale for discharges corresponding to the 10, 25, and 90 Percentile of future discharges at the station Neu Darchau for the period 2025 to Water quality (QSim)

20 4. Product line Fully coupled X13 X4 Regionalization of global change Future climate (STAR) X1 X15 Land use and regional water balance Hydrological cycle and crop yields (SWIM) Land use (LAND USE SCANNER) Y5 Y3 X2 X3 Water management (WBALMO) Inflow Evaporation Wetlands Z5 Nutrient load (MONERIS) Point source: Point source: Sewage plant Sealed surfaces Erosion agricultural sector (RAUMIS) Economics and demography (REGE) energy sector (KASIM) Y4 Y1 Y8 Y2 Y7 Z1 Water use Wetlands (MODAM) Households /business (HAUSHALT WASSER) (INDUSTRIE WASSER) Energy / Mining Z4 Z3 Z2 Z1 Water suppliers Mining Power plants Irrigation Minimal flow for conservation Atmospheric Deposition Drainage Surface denudation Groundwater Diffuse source / Sink: Wetlands Nutrient concentr. Phytoplankton Oxygen water technologies Y6 (KASIM) Agriculture / Irrigation Transport on inland waterways Transport on inland waterways Z7 Z9 Water quality (QSim) Z6

21 5. Our Invitation to stakeholders - Modelling Use the (unique) platform opportunity (water frame directive, water management, agriculture, risk assessment), contact modelling groups for cooperation - Assessment Question our results, address your questions to us, suggest management alternative

22 Thank You for your attention!