Climate mitigation pathways and sustainable development Elmar Kriegler

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1 Climate mitigation pathways and sustainable development Elmar Kriegler ThinkForest Workshop on Climate Policy and Forest Bioeconomy Brussels, December 4 th, 2018

2 The Story of 2 o C Mitigation Pathways Re directing investments from fossils to low carbon and efficiency solutions Peak in 2020 Steep emissions reduction Carbon neutral economy Electrification of end uses Challenges: Freight transport, aviation, shipping Heavy industry Carbon neutrality Net CO 2 removal Power sector decarbonization Coal phase out Compensate residual emissions (incl. agricultural N2O emissions) Compensate budget overshoot Luderer et al. (2018) Residual fossil CO emissions in o C pathways. Nature Climate Change

3 The Additional Challenge of Limiting Warming to 1.5 o C Steeper emissions reduction Earlier carbon neutrality Earlier & more net CO 2 removal Luderer et al. (2018) Residual fossil CO emissions in o C pathways. Nature Climate Change

4 The role of land in 1.5 and 2 o C pathways GHG emission reduction Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) Agricultural GHG emissions [Gt CO2-e] Baseline Mitigation RCP2.6 Stevanovic et al. 2017, ES&T Based on Popp et al. ; Bauer et al. 2017, GEC Elmar Kriegler Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

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6 IPCC SR1.5 findings on 1.5 o C pathways Requires substantial emissions reductions until 2030 and global net zero CO2 emissions by mid century Global total net CO2emissions Billion tonnes of CO₂/yr IfNDCs until 2030 are implemented, 1.5C will be breached, even if supplemented by drastic emissions reductions thereafter NDCs in 2030: GtCO 2 e/yr 1.5C pathways: GtCO 2 e/yr 40 60% reductions of CO 2 wrt to 2010 Four illustrative model pathways P1 P2 Requires transformational change at unprecedented scale in all sectors global CO 2 neutrality around mid century P3 P4 Timing of net zero CO2 Line widths depict the 5 95th percentile and the 25 75th percentile of scenarios Pathways limiting global warming to 1.5 Cwithno or low overshoot Pathways with high overshoot Pathways limiting global warming below 2 C (Not shown above) Source: IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 C, Fig. SPM3a Elmar Kriegler Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

7 The timing of land-based mitigation and CDR Source: IPCC SR1.5 SPM Fig. SPM3b Elmar Kriegler Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

8 Range of carbon dioxide removal options Portfolio of CDR technologies would limit deployment and therefore sustainability issues for each single technology Soil carbon enhancement, biochar and land restoration Afforestation BECCS using energy crops BECCS using algae Direct Air Capture (DAC) + Geological storage Carbon capture and usage (e.g. carbon fiber / wood) Enhanced Weathering Artificial ocean alkalinization Terrestrial storage Early deployment Geological storage Medium Long term Mineralisation Medium Long term 8

9 Integrated Carbon Management for Reaching Carbon Neutrality (by Mid Century?) Slide courtesy of Gunnar Luderer

10 From mitigation patways to sustainable development pathways The World in 2050 Framework ( Elmar Kriegler Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

11 Sustainability of land use based mitigation Humpenöder, Popp et al (2018), ERL 11

12 Sustainability of land-use based mitigation Bioenergy Afforestation Humpenöder et al. ERL, 2018 Kreidenweis et al. ERL, 2017 Serious consequence for food prices due to increased competition for land. Elmar Kriegler Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

13 Discussion SENSES project on scenario communication and visualization (senses project.org) Primer on Climate Change Scenario Approaches: Name, Research Domain 13