CREATING REGIONAL MECHANISMS FOR PROVIDING CLIMATE INFORMATION: SPECIAL FOCUS ON RCOFS

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1 CREATING REGIONAL MECHANISMS FOR PROVIDING CLIMATE INFORMATION: SPECIAL FOCUS ON RCOFS Andre Kamga Foamohoue Chief, Climate&Environment Department African Centre for Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD) Niamey-Niger

2 OUTLINE MOTIVATION SUMMARY OF SOME RCOFs Achievements CHALLENGES TO BE ADDRESS IN THE CONTEXT OF GFCS APPROACHES TO ADDRESS CHALLENGES CONCLUSIONS

3 Motivation RCOFs is recognized as a mechanism providing: Gaps have been identified in RCOFs for example: - fragmentation of products; - difficulties of understanding and use; - early warning for early action (DDR) - climate information for adaptation to climate variability and change - products not based on expressed user needs; - limited tailoring of products to sectors like forecasting of extremes of high impact climate events for DRR ); - Little provider-user interactions in real time making the user a customer Adaptation involves : Assessment-prioritization-Information management-climate risk management coordination

4 Some RCOFS Achievements on networking, awareness raising and value for climate outlooks RCOFs have been extended worldwide as a regional mechanism for training, production and service provision, dialogue/interviews with users and media, trust building and dissemination of climate information. It has contributed to growing political commitment to climate change adaptation It has been a framework for multi stakeholder dialogue on climate, its impacts and sustainable development It has facilitated gradual shifts from reactive responses to proactive risk management with climate information Adaptation functions include: Assessment-prioritization-information managementclimate risk management-coordination

5 Achievements on quality and challenge on the use Summer 2012 case in West Africa Limited use of the product was noted due to lack of legal/regulatory frameworks at regional/ national levels, Vulnerability assessments, contingency planning forums involving providers of climate services, humanitarian and disaster managers. Specific user forums between climate service providers and Humanitarian/Disaster managers are pivotal to ensure RCOF product will have more value if associated with impacts profile (expected affected people)

6 Challenge 1: Expansion of Climate outlooks users why is this challenging? Users need decisions or measures, but climate information is mostly provided Current water management decisions for some hydropower systems are made with little use of climate information Energizing the world would require sustainable management of existing systems and structures with climate services

7 INTEGRATION AS A SOLUTION TO EXPAND USER NETWORKS

8 PROPOSED DECISION SYSTEM Integration of climate, discharge, optimization tools for water allocation The optimization box below is implemented jointly by climate and water experts

9 Challenge 2: Provision of climate services, related impact&vulnerability assessments, resilience measures Preliminary results Preliminary results from Africa Risk View (see figure) shows that food security might be affected by climate change in different ways in the Nile and in the Niger basins. In particular, according to considered scenarios, the Nile basin will enjoy more stable conditions for food security whereas in the Niger basin, large fluctuations in the number of drought affected people may occur over time scales of decades. RCOFs products need to be systematical considered in impacts&vulnerability assessments fora

10 Challenge 3: Provision of Quality climate services including communication Why is this challenging? Climate outlook business lacks : - agreed upon production procedures based on up to date systems and tools-human capacity needed for operational climate servicesnew products development mechanism Provision of seamless climate services ( from sub-seasonal to multidecadal) Liaise with National Adaptation Planning(NAP) process Help Desks for information dissemination from source to end users ( eg. case of floods info in Nigeria in summer 2012); Focus group discussions broadcasted via local radios and web based tools

11 Addressing Service quality challenges -Identify and test more predictors for statistical models - use local data for composite analyses required to understand variability - further explore analog and persistence forecasting methods - Demonstrate on and use weekly and monthly forecasts - do research to understand climate variability for all seasons (e.g little research has been done on MAM season in West Africa) Performance of statistical model over Nigeria Performance of statistical model over Africa

12 TOWARDS A COMMON PRACTICE FOR SEASONAL FORECASTING- TO ADDRESS QUALITY CLIMATE SERVICE CHALLENGE 1- Analysis of climate variability and trends for the target seasons ( focus has been on few seasons, climate scientists may address other important seasons of the year) 2- Selection of wet and dry years from station time series 3- SST and other parameters composite analysis for wet and dry years 4- Analysis of cumulative daily station precipitation for dry years and wet years at each station or region 5- Generation and analysis of Statistical forecasts with Climate Predictability Tools ( scientist will support development, validation of statistical tools for seasonal prediction and identification of predictors)

13 COMMON PRACTICE FOR SEASONAL FORECASTING- TO ADDRESS QUALITY CLIMATE SERVICE CHALLENGE 6- Identification of analog years based on SST behavior ( in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Ocean regions) and analysis of related precipitation and temperatures patterns ( need for scientists to improve understanding of climate variability through case studies on significant or extreme climate anomalies) 7- Analysis of each Global Producing Centre's for Long Range Forecasts products ( Single model ensemble approach, scientist may provide regular model performance assessment reports and related model interpretive guidance) 8 -Analysis of Multimodel Long Range Forecasts Products ( Multimodel ensemble approach, scientist may provide regular multimodel performance reports and related interpretive guidance, WMO LC, EUROSIP, NMME, ) 9- Combination of outputs from step 1 to step 8 including expert judgment to generate a consensus outlook ( scientist may put emphasis on assessment/verification of consensus climate outlooks)

14 Concluding Remarks on How to address the challenges in the GFCS context Data rescue and Management to provide high quality historical datasets for developing better understanding, forecasting tools and interpreting models outputs Joint CCl/WCRP panel of experts to identify, assess products and demonstrate on seamless climate services in RCOFs Development of climate services procedures and working instructions with initial emphasis on RCOFs Use available best practices to raise awareness and advocacy for policy makers to facilitate investment in manpower for climate services provision particularly in the developing world Liaise with user sectors institutions and projects ( FAO, WFP, IFRC, UNISDR, Vulnerability Assessment and Analysis projects) at regional level to organize/attend sector specific forums, group discussions leading to practical and more consensus based advices to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience

15 Concluding Remarks How to address the challenges in the GFCS context? Liaise with Universities and research institutions(eg ICTP) on climate and climate sensitive sectors to improve predictions, impacts and vulnerability assessment tools, adaptation options design, prioritization and implementation, production and communication of advices and recommended practices to user sectors Liaise with regional policy making institutions to organize or strengthen meetings and forums to mainstream climate information in national/regional adaptation plan process, establish legal/regulatory frameworks facilitating effective dissemination and use of climate information Strengthen provision of climate input to food, agriculture, water, health and disaster management advices and recommendations Establish RCOF clearing house involving climate service providers, users and other stakeholders The clearing house facilitates valuation of climate information, monitors exchanges between providers and users, may provide guarantee if needed to cover part of losses due to misuse of climate information, facilitate tailoring of climate products and information, provide guidance to provide climate services with continuous added value.

16 Tailoring, better use and sustainability of RCOF challenges Participation of climate service providers to User fora at national and regional levels is key; Establishment of help Desks as a platform to organize responses to customer request is essential; Clearing house to build sustainability is desirable The clearing house facilitates valuation of climate information, monitors exchanges between providers and users, may provide guarantee if needed to cover part of losses due to misuse of climate information, facilitates tailoring of climate products and information, provide guidance to provide climate services with continuous added value.

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