Identification Mission to IMGW, Wroclaw, Poland. Helmus van de Langemheen / Thieu van Mierlo

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2 Identification Mission to IMGW, Wroclaw, Poland Helmus van de Langemheen / Thieu van Mierlo December, 2000

3 Contents 1 Introduction Aim of the Identification Mission Scope of the Identification Mission Readers guide General aspects Main Actors in Polish river basins Flood forecasting practices in Poland Involvement of IMGW Activities by IMGW, Wroclaw Geographical data Weather forecasting Overview of Flood Forecasting Models Hydro-meteorological data collection The System Hydrology Operational (SHO) Historical hydro-meteorological data storage and processing Water quality monitoring Suggested topics/fields of future co-operation/assistance Snowmelt modelling Development of a Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) Water quality modelling Recommendations WL Delft Hydraulics i

4 Appendices A000 Itinerary... A 1 B000 Characteristics of the Odra river basin... B 1 C000 Estimate of required resources in developing snowmelt models... C 1 D000 Estimate of required resources in developing a FEWS... D 1 WL Delft Hydraulics ii

5 1 Introduction An identification mission was carried out by Mr. Helmus van de Langemheen (RIZA, Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management in the Netherlands) and Mr. Thieu van Mierlo (WL Delft Hydraulics) from November 2000 to the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Wroclaw in Poland. 1.1 Aim of the Identification Mission The aim of the identification mission was to determine topics/fields of possible further Dutch-Polish co-operation within the framework of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the Ministry of Environmental Protection, Natural Resources and Forestry of the Republic of Poland and the Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management of the Kingdom of the Netherlands. More precisely the primary aim was to identify possibilities for further co-operation between RIZA and IMGW on hydrological models, hydrodynamic models and flood early warning systems for the Odra river basin, based on proposals formulated by IMGW. However, a number of other topics were mentioned by IMGW and also discussed during the mission. 1.2 Scope of the Identification Mission During the identification mission, discussions with various staff members of IMGW, Wroclaw were held (see Appendix A) in order to obtain more insight into the actual needs of IMGW. Based on these insights possible topics/fields, which could be addressed in an extension of the current co-operation between IMGW and RIZA were established. In a meeting with Assoc. Prof. Dr. Alfred Dubicki (Director of IMGW, Wroclaw) these findings were discussed, resulting into three possible topics/fields which might be addressed in a continuation of the co-operation/assistance between RIZA and IMGW, Wroclaw. 1.3 Readers guide General findings of the identification mission are given in Chapter 2. A brief description of the various IMGW activities as discussed during the identification mission are given in Chapter 3. A description of the suggested topics/fields for future co-operation/assistance between RIZA and IMGW are given in Chapter 4. Finally in Chapter 5 a recommendation for the topic/field to be addressed first in a possible continuation of the existing cooperation/assistance between RIZA and IMGW, Wroclaw is given. WL Delft Hydraulics 1 1

6 2 General aspects. 2.1 Main Actors in Polish river basins Except for Ministries and Provincial bodies, the main (water) actors in Polish river basins are: RZGW s: Regional boards of Water Management, IMGW s: Institutes for Meteorology and Water Management. The RZGW s are in charge of reservoir operation and river maintenance (e.g. flood protection works, dredging, shipping locks etc.). The RZGW s are also responsible for the (quantitative) management of the available water resources. The IMGW s are in charge of monitoring and analysing of various hydro-meteorological (both quantitatively and qualitatively) processes, such as precipitation, river stages, groundwater etc. In addition the IMGW s are in charge of making both weather forecasts and flood forecasts. It was observed that IMGW Wroclaw is hardly involved in water resources management activities/studies. The International Commission for the Odra (ICO) plays an important role in stimulating international co-operation. Participants are Poland, Czech, Germany and the European Union. In addition to flood protection, ICO also focuses on the protection of the Odra river basin and the Baltic Sea from pollution and improvement of the water quality. 2.2 Flood forecasting practices in Poland In Poland both weather forecasts and flood forecasts are made by IMGW s. At present IMGW, Wroclaw is on the brink of using FloodWatch, which is a Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) covering the entire Odra river from its origin in the South-west of Poland up to its mouth in the Baltic Sea (see Appendix B for a brief description of the Odra river basin). Unfortunately during the identification mission no demonstration of FloodWatch was given. The actual operation of reservoirs during times of flood is the responsibility of RZGW. Under severe flood conditions, the possibilities of the existing reservoirs (all located on river Odra tributaries) for mitigating flood conditions along river Odra are to be considered as limited only. However, flood conditions directly downstream of these reservoirs might be improved due to manipulating with such a reservoir. This will especially yield for medium type of flooding/flood conditions (strongly related to typical high river discharge and effective storage capacity of the reservoir). WL Delft Hydraulics 2 1

7 2.3 Involvement of IMGW During the identification mission, it was brought forward by IMGW that their financial as well as their human resources are limited only. In case during the co-operation/assistance a lot of work (e.g. the processing of data) is required, IMGW will need additional external resources to have these activities carried out by either a local consultancy firm or by having its own staff making overtime. WL Delft Hydraulics 2 2

8 3 Activities by IMGW, Wroclaw This Chapter does not aim at giving an overview of all activities carried out by IMGW, Wroclaw. In effect only these IMGW activities related to the aim of the identification mission and which were discussed during the identification mission are reported upon. 3.1 Geographical data At present no digital terrain models (DTM s) are available for the Odra river and its tributaries. It is envisaged that these DTM s will be established in an anticipated World Bank project. Presently river flow models can be constructed using topo-sheets (flood plain data) and cross-sections (bathymetric data). Hence, no data is available for using Baseline (programme which can derive river cross-sectional profiles from digital elevation data) in the extension of the existing SOBEK model. 3.2 Weather forecasting Weather forecasts (precipitation, temperatures etc.) for the river Odra basin are made by IMGW, Wroclaw. At present daily precipitation values are given with a forecast horizon of 48 hours. In the near future it is anticipated that 12 hrs precipitation values will be forecasted. The weather forecasts are made on basis of the experience and understanding of the local meteorologist of the prevailing weather systems in the river Odra basin, where the results of the Deutschland model (Deutscher Wetter Dienst, Offenbach), observed data from synoptic stations, observations by weather radar s both in Poland and in the Czech Republic as well as on-line satellite images are taken into account. 3.3 Overview of Flood Forecasting Models Presently at IMGW a flood forecasting model is used, which covers the Odra catchment area upstream of Wroclaw only. In the near future IMGW will use FloodWatch for making flood forecasts for the whole Odra river, from its origin in the South-west of Poland up to its mouth in the Baltic Sea. The computational back-bone of FloodWatch comprises of a Mike11 hydrodynamic model combined with NAM rainfall-runoff models. It was understood that FloodWatch aims at predicting flood conditions in the river Odra itself. In view thereof, upstream catchment areas have been lumped to a large degree, hence not allowing for a detailed modelling of the remote upstream mountainous catchment areas. It was informed that presently two additional flood forecasting models for the entire Odra basin are being developed in the framework of the FLODIS-ODRA and the International Odra Project. In the FLODIS-ODRA project RZGW (not IMGW) is involved where it concerns the modelling part. Also a private company called Neokart GIS is involved. The Odra Project is carried out by the technical university of Hamburg (e.g. Gkks Forschungszentrum Geesthacht Gmbh, Germany) in close co-operation with IMGW and the Marine Institute in Stettin. WL Delft Hydraulics 3 1

9 3.4 Hydro-meteorological data collection Discharge measurements by IMGW are usually made from bridges using flow-current meters. This discharge measuring method is often not fast enough for measuring the actual peakdischarge. Hence improvements can/might be achieved by using ultrasonic measuring devices. Water levels are often measured using limnigraphs. At main meteorological stations, precipitation is measured using ombrographs, which in winter are not always equipped with heating devices. Under the anticipated Worldbank project (delayed), the IMGW hydro-meteorological measuring network will be updated and optimised. At present Polish hydro-meteorological data (needed for updating flood forecasting models, see section 3.3) are collected by UHF radio, after which this data is manually entered in the SHO database (see section 3.5). Only data of some stations, located within the Czech Republic are received in digital format through IMGW, Warsaw. Within the anticipated Worldbank project, IMGW intends to equip its measuring stations with devices enabling the automatic on-line collection of observed data in digital format. 3.5 The System Hydrology Operational (SHO) SHO (System Hydrology Operational) is installed at the flood forecasting centre of IMGW in Wroclaw. It enables the storage of on-line collected hydro-meteorological data with a maximum record-length of 365 days. From SHO downloads can be made in formats, which enable direct loading of this data into the presently used flood forecasting system and in future into the FloodWatch model. Further on SHO allows for some data screening activities such as making of plots of observed versus observed catchment outflow. Through SHO, flood forecasts and warnings can be directly sent (by or fax) to concerned parties. Recently, the SHO was brought under the MS Windows environment by a Polish software company. 3.6 Historical hydro-meteorological data storage and processing At IMGW historical hydro-meteorological data is available in the Historical Hydrometeorological System (HHS), which at present is basically a number of organised file boxes. It was informed that a tender has been called for the development of a user-friendly database for the storage, retrieval and analysis of historical hydro-meteorological data. In view of this a short demonstration of the HYMOS software package developed at WL Delft Hydraulics was given, which enables for the storage, retrieval and analysis (e.g. double mass analysis, fitting and extrapolation of rating curves, series homogeneity tests, spatial homogeneity tests, fitting of distributions etc.) of hydro-meteorological data. WL Delft Hydraulics 3 2

10 3.7 Water quality monitoring The water quality monitoring department monitors and analyses the water quality (groundwater, stream-flow and precipitation) within the Odra basin. The department classifies the water quality of various river stretches as function of actual stream discharges. In addition the department determines the magnitude of diffuse sources. The department is not involved in water resource management studies. In the recent past it was tried to apply the water quality module of the Mike11 to some Odra river stretches. It appeared that there was not sufficient coherent data available allowing for the application of the Mike11 water quality module. It was informed that since this experience no more additional water quality data has become available. The water quality monitoring department possess a well equipped and modern laboratory for establishing the physics, chemistry and biology conditions of water samples. The consultants were pleased to obtain an explanation on the various laboratory facilities. WL Delft Hydraulics 3 3

11 4 Suggested topics/fields of future cooperation/assistance In consultation with Assoc. Prof. Dr. Alfred Dubicki (Director of IMGW, Wroclaw), the following topics/fields for the extension of the present co-operation/assistance between RIZA and IMGW in the framework of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) were suggested, viz: 1. Snowmelt modelling; 2. Development of a Flood Early Warning System (FEWS); and 3. Water quality modelling. 4.1 Snowmelt modelling Contribution by snowmelt is of importance during the genesis of flood waves occurring in early spring. In the Odra river basin the magnitude of summer floods is in general larger than the magnitude of spring floods. Nevertheless, IMGW Wroclaw feels that it should obtain experience/expertise on snowmelt modelling, since snowmelt is also an important resource of water during early spring. At present there is no experience with snowmelt modelling at IMGW, Wroclaw. It was informed that the HBV software package was (not that successfully) applied for snowmelt modelling by IMGW Warsaw for relatively low-lying catchment areas. The reasons for the less successful application of HBV model by IMGW Warsaw are not fully understood. It has to be explicitly mentioned that HBV model is with satisfaction used for modelling snowmelt in the middle range German mountains as well as for the Swiss Alps. By IMGW Wroclaw two catchment areas were identified which might serve as pilot areas for snowmelt modelling and for which sufficient hydro-meteorological data (rainfall, snow depth, newly fallen snow, water equivalents, daily minimum and maximum temperatures and discharges) as well as topographical and land-use data are available. These two catchment areas are respectively: 1. the Nysa Klodzka river catchment upstream of Otmuchow reservoir; and 2. the Bobr river catchment upstream of Pilchowice reservoir. During the identification mission no software package to be used in snowmelt modelling was selected. Taking into account the long standing experience record of the HBV model (developed by SHMI, Sweden) and the fact that RIZA has satisfying experience in the application of this model, it is suggested to apply the HBV model for the above described snowmelt modelling. In Appendix C an estimate of the required expatriate and Polish manpower input as well as an estimate of the costs involved in making snowmelt models for one of the above mentioned two catchment areas is given. WL Delft Hydraulics 4 1

12 4.2 Development of a Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) Initially it was suggested to develop a flood forecasting model (or Flood Early Warning System, FEWS) for the river Odra stretch from Brezg Dolny up to Gozdonwice. This would refer to a tremendous amount of work and hence costs involved. Taking into account the fact that this part of the Odra river is already covered by FloodWatch, which is anticipated to be very soon operational at IMGW, Wroclaw, it was suggested to consider the development of a FEWS for one of the sub-catchment described in section 4.1. In effect such a FEWS means that the anticipated snowmelt models are brought under a user friendly dedicated user-interface. In addition it is suggested to incorporate the operation of the local reservoir into this user-interface. This will allow for the simulation of such local reservoir during times of flood. Hence, the effects of a different operation strategy of the local reservoir on the mitigation of the flood conditions directly downstream of such local reservoir could be analysed. RZGW could be consulted on the findings of such different operation strategy and requested to adopt its reservoir operation accordingly. It is obvious that the final decision on how to operate the local reservoir will always remain the responsibility of RZGW. Furthermore it is obvious that by incorporating the local reservoir the co-operation between IMGW and RZGW can be strengthened. It is to be mentioned that the above described catchment areas are also included in FloodWatch. However, it was informed that they are included in much less detail. In other words the local flood conditions are not modelled in sufficient detail in order to serve for local flood forecasting purposes. In Appendix D an estimate of the required expatriate and Polish manpower input as well as an estimate of the costs involved in developing a FEWS for one of the two considered subcatchment areas is given. 4.3 Water quality modelling As already indicated in section 3.7, there is no sufficient data for water quality modelling. At the first sight, the development of a strategy for optimised measuring and monitoring would be more important than an improvement of (water quality) modelling. WL Delft Hydraulics 4 2

13 5 Recommendations For further improvement of both flood forecasting and flood prevention/management in the Odra basin, most important recommendation would be to start with the snowmelt modelling for one of the two considered sub-catchment areas and to later on proceed with the development of a Flood Early Warning System (FEWS). There is however one important precondition: improvement of flood prevention/management (i.e. development of FEWS for one of the two proposed sub-catchments) should be done not only in co-operation with IMGW, but also with concerned the RZGW (or more precisely with the department in charge of the reservoir operation). Additional notes/reflections: co-operation in the field of snowmelt modelling is also interesting for RIZA because of the similarity of processes in the Rhine Alps (focussed on knowledge exchange rather than system development); HYMOS (WL Delft Hydraulics) can be recommended for the analysis of data that has been or will be stored in the Historical Hydro-meteorological System; development of a FEWS for the suggested part of the Odra basin (i.e. from Brezg Dolny up to Gozdonwice, hence extension of the existing SOBEK model) is quite expensive and doesn t seem to be very useful when there isn t a well-identified group of users for this specific system. WL Delft Hydraulics 5 1

14 A000 Itinerary Tuesday, November : Travel to Wroclaw in Poland. Wednesday, November : Discussion/exchange of ideas between Mr. Helmus van de Langemheen (RIZA, Ministry of Public Works, The Netherlands), Mr. Thieu van Mierlo (WL Delft Hydraulics) and Ms. Kinga Stronska (IMGW, Wroclaw, Poland) regarding possible future fields of cooperation/assistance between RIZA, WL Delft Hydraulics and IMGW, Wroclaw. Explanation by Ms. Barbara Wrona on the weather forecasts prepared and issued by IMGW, Wroclaw. Thursday, November : Continuation of discussion/exchange of ideas between Mr. Helmus van den Langemheen, Mr. Thieu van Mierlo and Ms. Kinga Stronska regarding possible future fields of co-operation/assistance between RIZA, WL Delft Hydraulics and IMGW, Wroclaw. Demonstration and explanation of the SHO (System Hydro-meteorology Operational) in use at IMGW, Wroclaw by Ms. Kinga Stronska. Discussion with Ms. Barbara Maciejowska on the collection and processing of historical hydro-meteorological data by IMGW, Wroclaw. This activity is referred to as the HHS (Historical Hydro-meteorological System). Meeting with Assoc. Prof. Dr. Alfred Dubicki (Director of IMGW, Wroclaw) in which the possible fields of co-operation between IMGW, RIZA and WL Delft Hydraulics were actually defined. This meeting was also attended by Dr. Zenon Wozniak, Ms Kinga Stronska (both of IMGW, Wroclaw), Mr. Helmus van de Langemheen and Mr. Thieu van Mierlo. Friday, November : Discussion/elaboration on possible fields of co-operation/assistance regarding flood forecasting (as defined on the Thursday meeting with Prof. Dubicki) in close consultation with Kinga Stronska. Discussion/investigation regarding possible fields of co-operation/assistance on water quality issues with Mr. Rysard Z. Tivaroski and Ms. Barbara Marchleuska of IMGW, Wroclaw. In addition a visit was paid to the well equipped water quality analysis laboratory of IMGW, Wroclaw. WL Delft Hydraulics A 1

15 B000 Characteristics of the Odra river basin The Odra river flows through Central Europe. Its length is 866 kilometres, from which 746 kilometres are in Poland. The total catchment area is approximately square kilometres. In the following table these figures are compared with Rhine and Meuse. River Catchment area (km 2 ) Length (km) Rhine Meuse Odra The river Odra originate in the eastern part (i.e. Sudeten) of the Czech republic at an elevation of 634 metres above mean sea-level and discharges into the Baltic Sea. Some tributaries in the south, in the Polish-Czech borderland (Sudeten) originate at a height of meters above mean sea-level. Most import tributaries are rivers Warta, Bobr and Neisse. Downstream from the confluence of Odra and Neisse, the Odra forms the borderline between Germany and Poland. Upstream reservoirs and dams are important for hydropower production and for the regulation of water levels on river Odra for navigation purposes. WL Delft Hydraulics B 1

16 Figure B.1 The Odra catchment, most important tributaries and the German part (dark shading) at the eastern side from Neisse/Odra. WL Delft Hydraulics B 2

17 C000 Estimate of required resources in developing snowmelt models Based on experience it is estimated that for the development of snowmelt models for one of the two possible catchments described in section 4.1 (e.g. the Nysa Klodzka river catchment upstream of Otmuchow reservoir or the Bobr river catchment upstream of Pilochowice reservoir), following resources are needed, viz: Manpower input: 20 days by RIZA staff; 36 days of WL Delft Hydraulics staff; and approximately 52 days of IMGW, Wroclaw staff. Financial input: Dfl. 32,200,- exclusive BTW (Value Added Tax) for the input by RIZA; Dfl. 100,370.- exclusive BTW (Value Added Tax) for input by WL Delft Hydraulics; and approximately Dfl. 31,200.-, exclusive any kind of taxes for the input by IMGW, Wroclaw. The costs of the suggested HBV software package are approximately Dfl ,- exclusive BTW (Value Added Tax). It is to be mentioned that in case only one snowmelt model is to be developed the costs involved can be reduced. In addition is to be mentioned that the above estimate serves as an indication of required resources (manpower and costs) only. Hence the above estimate is as such not to be considered as a financial offer by WL Delft Hydraulics. In developing the snowmelt models following phases can be discerned: Selection of Pilot area & Definition of required data; Collection of data by IMGW, Wroclaw staff; Review of collected data and explanation on required data processing and analysis; Processing and analysis of collected data by IMGW, Wroclaw staff; Review of analysed data and explanation on how to develop and calibrate the snowmelt models; Development of snowmelt models by IMGW, Wroclaw staff; Review of status of developed snowmelt models; Elaboration on developed snowmelt models by IMGW, Wroclaw staff; Finalising of the development of the snowmelt models; Preparation of final report. WL Delft Hydraulics C 1

18 D000 Estimate of required resources in developing a FEWS Based on experience it is estimated that for the development of a Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) for one of the two possible catchments described in section 4.1 (e.g. the Nysa Klodzka river catchment upstream of Otmuchow reservoir or the Bobr river catchment upstream of Pilochowice reservoir), following resources are needed, viz: Manpower input: 15 days of RIZA staff; 81 days of WL Delft Hydraulics staff; and approximately 25 days of IMGW, Wroclaw staff. & staff of the concerning RZGW. Financial input: Dfl. 25,400,-, exclusive BTW (Value Added Tax) for the input by RIZA; Dfl ,-, exclusive BTW (Value Added Tax) for input by WL Delft Hydraulics and approximately Dfl. 15,000.- exclusive any kind of taxes for the input by IMGW, Wroclaw. It is to be mentioned that the above estimate serves as an indication of required resources (manpower and costs) only. Hence the above estimate is as such not to be considered as a financial offer by WL Delft Hydraulics. In developing a FEWS following phases can be discerned: Joint collection of reservoir data by IMGW, Wroclaw & concerned RZGW staff; Analysis of collected reservoir, definition of reservoir module, definition of FEWS; Development of FEWS in the Netherlands; Implementation/training of FEWS in Poland; Preparation of final report and FEWS manual. WL Delft Hydraulics D 1