Climate Change as a Survival Strategy:

Transcription

1 Climate Change as a Survival Strategy: Soft Infrastructure for Coastal Resilience and Climate Adaptive Capacity in Australia Chen Nan (PhD candidate, UNSW/CSIRO CAF) sponsored by CSIRO CAF/CSIRO OCE Scholarship Presented By: Dr. Peter Graham, Head of Discipline Architecture & Design RESILIENT CITIES 2010: Bonn, Germany 29 May 2010 City Futures Research Centre Faculty of the Built Environment UNSW

2 Agenda Overview Objectives Research Questions Rationale Soft infrastructure Limits to risk Resilience Research Direction Conceptual framework Research methods

3 Australian Climate Change: Probable Impacts Significant loss of biodiversity: Including the Great Barrier Reef and Queensland Wet Tropics. Water security: Projected to intensify in southern and eastern Australia. Production from agriculture and forestry: Projected to decline over much of southern and eastern Australia. overview Ongoing coastal development and population growth in some areas of Australia are projected to exacerbate risks from sea level rise and increases in the severity and frequency of storms and coastal flooding. Source: (IPCC, 2007)

4 Australian Climate Change: Vulnerabilities overview Gold Coast settlement and infrastructure highly vulnerable to climate change Photo Source: city futures,2009 & SCCG 2008

5 Australian Climate Change: Vulnerabilities 80% of Australians live in the coastal zone Approx. 711,000 addresses >3km of the coast and < 6 m above sea level Governance in the coastal zone is described as ''complex and fragmented Action is also fragmented - Sydney Coastal Councils: overview - 30% of councils that refer to climate change in planning and management policies, had assessed climate risk or developed hazard mitigation strategies. - 60% had no plans to do so. Sources: Sydney Morning Herald, oct 27,2009; Climate Change Risks to Australia s Coast, 2009, Department of Climate Change

6 Drivers of Change in Australia s Settlements not just Climate Change overview 7 Drivers towns of change which will shape our towns and cities CLIMATE CHANGE PEAK OIL DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE URBAN DENSIFICATION SOCIAL INCLUSION AND SOCIAL EQUITY INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS Significant Co-Benefits: - Retrofitting - Markets in efficiency - Employment Australian Cities are not the problems for climate change but the solutions!

7 Problem Context overview Generic adaptation (top-down or bottom up) Need to move beyond Risk Management Lack of fundamental understanding of system behavior Neglecting the social aspect of the social-ecological context Plenty of research not enough implementation

8 Research objectives Adapt Theories of Resilience and test their efficacy in CCA planning strategies and policies for vulnerable coastal settlements. Define soft infrastructure and its implication on coastal resilience and adaptive capacity of the built environment. Identify resilient adaptation options for soft infrastructure with a focus on Development Control Planning. overview

9 Knowledge Gaps Risk Hard infrastructure overview Risk + Resilience Soft infrastructure e.g. DCPs Hard infrastructure Analytic framework Analyse Informing Supporting Implementing

10 THE FAILURE OF HARD INFRASTRUCTURE IS OFTEN CAUSED BY THE FAILURE OF SOFT INFRASTRUCTURE rationale News_FB_BTWB_HurricaneKatrinaAnniversary.jpg

11 Soft Infrastructure - definitions Foresight activities and anticipatory networks rationale First Responders (fire, ambulance-hospitals, police) (Hayes, 2008) Ability to support the development of the hard infrastructures, i.e. the policy, regulatory and institutional frameworks (Asian Development Bank and AsianDevelopmentBankInstitute 2009); Protection and nourish function to the hard infrastructure (Natural Resources Canada, 2009); Educational systems, professional associations and community groups ; or as capacity building (Casey,2005) DCPs as soft infrastructure - DCPs as the nexus between hard and soft infrastructure requires shift in focus through a resilience lens

12 Directions: Risk + Resilience & Adaptation directions Social-ecological systems (Adaptive Cycles) Sources: e.g. Gunderson et al. 1995, Holling et al. 2002

13 Resilience Theory connects adaptation with sustainable development Resilience: provides the capacity to absorb shocks while maintaining function. directions Sustainability: the ability to create, test and maintain adaptive capacity Development: the process of creating, testing and maintaining opportunity. Sustainable Development: The goal of fostering adaptive capabilities and creating opportunities Sources: e.g. Holling 1986, 1996, 2001

14 Indicators for Resilience & Adaptive Capacity Resilience and adaptive capacity to impacts of climate change depend on: The amount of shock that the built environment can absorb and still provide basic services; The degree to which the built environment is capable of self-organizing; The degree to which the built environment can learn through change. Source: Resilience Alliance, 2009

15 Indicators for Resilience & DCP s Learning from the past; - Post-occupancy review - Performance monitoring - Retrofitting directions Anticipating the future; - Buildings as dynamic systems of functional layers - Designed for change of use, disassembly and deconstruction Provide for learning - Involvement & Multi-disciplinarily - Feedback & Reflection Experimentation - Active: Designing a building to test a hypothesis - Passive: Monitoring performance & model building - Diversity & Novelty (not putting all your eggs in one basket)

16 RISK + RESILLIENCE Resilience and adaptive capacity to impacts of climate change depend on: The amount of shock that the built environment can absorb and still provide basic services; Risk Management The degree to which the built environment is capable of self-organizing; The degree to which the built environment can learn through change. Resilience Analysis

17 RISK + RESILLIENCE directions Source:

18 RESILIENCE + RISK directions Reduce risk and enhance resilience before a disaster Source: Hartmut Fuenfgeld (2009) Key Climate Risks & Potential Responses: Working with Local Government on Climate Change Adaptation DIRECTIONS

19 RESEARCH DIRECTIONS Description of System: Vulnerable coastal settlement Step 1 key processes (DA) structure and actors soft infrastructure (existing components) Step 2 External shock (physical/socia l/ecological) Risk Soft infrastructure (definition) Buildingrelated policy Construction ecology Step 3 Resilience analysis Indicators with resilience measures Step 4 Adapted from Carpenter,2006 Better integrated theories Policy and Management Actions (based on stakeholder evaluation)

20 Summary: Change & Opportunity Intended/anticipated Surprises Being managed by change is a survival strategy

21 Thank You! City Futures Research Centre Faculty of the Built Environment, UNSW