Climate Change The challenge for planning and transport professionals

Transcription

1 Climate Change The challenge for planning and transport professionals John Parry Presentation for Royal Town Planning Institute North Eastern Region 16 th February 2011 Climate Change & Legal Liabilities Legal liabilites for the foreseeable impacts of climate change may also develop in the UK, ( London Climate Change Partnership Finance Group 2009). Some lawyers already acknowledge there is sufficient information available to take climate change into account. Consequently Professional advisers including transportation specialists, may be found to fall in their duty to act prudently if climate change is ignored, (United Nations Environment Programme Asset Management Working Party,2009)

2 Today's presentation An Overview - Regulation Background and CIHT Guide A Changing Climate Consequences, Impact and Sustainability The Challenge to Adapt - Acceptance and Initiatives Climate Change UK Regulatory Programme Climate Change Bill introduced in Parliament November 2007 Passage through House of Lords March 2008 Committee Stage of House of Commons July 2008 Royal Assent December 2008 Climate Change UK Regulatory Programme The Act creates a new approach to managing and responding to climate change in UK Setting a 2050 target for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions The net UK carbon account for 2050 to be at least 80% lower than the 1990 baseline To confer powers to establish trading schemes

3 IHT Response Since 2006 the CIHT response has been led by the Transport Policy Board To adopt a definition of sustainable development Meeting our current needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. To set terms of reference To identify transportation issues considered to be effected by or have a direct impact on a changing climate. The Challenge A balanced and holistic approach was fundamental to embrace all transport professional areas To acknowledge that demand for travel arises within Society according to its activities There is a complex interaction in the context of the demographic situation between economic factors behavioural choices availability of travel choice Climate Change and Sustainable Transport the challenge for transport professionals The development of a framework of five themes setting out the key issues in the context of sustainability. Managing Demand Behavioural Change Accessibility and Social Equity Technology and Safety Administration and Finance

4 Climate Change & Sustainable Transport Report (2008) Challenge for professionals Opportunities for members of CIHT to take the lead in helping deliver sustainable transport systems Covered managing demand, changing behaviour, accessibility and social equality, technology and safety, design standards and fiscal incentives A Changing Climate Consequences, Impact & Sustainability Issues that threaten sustainability include: Climate change; Resource depletion; Ocean acidification; Road safety; Rising prosperity, population, demand; Economic sustainability; and Social equity.

5 Science of climate change We are releasing gases that trap the Earth s heat. Called greenhouse gases, they include carbon dioxide CO 2, methane, nitrous oxide and various industrial gases. Water vapour is a natural greenhouse gas. Million tonnes CO 2. 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 CO 2 EMISSIONS - ALL ENERGY USE World USA EU27 EU15 Russia China Asia (non-oecd)

6 Concentration in atmosphere ppm CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION Mauna Loa Law dome Adelie Land Siple South Pole Date CO 2 Concentration ppm CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION Vostok ice core Inter-glacial Inter-glacial ice age ice age ice age Thousand years before present ppm Inter-glacial ice age Interglacial CHANGES IN GLOBAL TEMPERATURE AND SEA LEVEL - IPCC Report 4 Difference from average over

7 Temperature anomoly o C.. TEMPERATURE ANOMOLY ENGLAND AND GLOBAL 1.5 Central England 1.0 Global A RECENT FORECAST OF SEA LEVEL AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE A 5ºC warming scenario is possible in this century if nothing is done. Stern says: This is not a black swan [an event beyond normal expectation]. This is not a small probability of a rather unattractive outcome. This is a big probability of a very bad outcome. Lord Stern, (2009), Speech at the Copenhagen Science Conference, March Quoted from Oxfam Briefing Paper 130, 2009

8 The World 4 o C warmer: New Scientist 28/2/2009 Canada: warm and wet ideal crop growing conditions Siberia: warm and wet ideal crop growing conditions Europe: desert south of Lyon China: desert India: desert Africa: desert Desert encroaches fertile land Dunhuang, China Emissions, million tonnes CO CO 2 EMISSIONS AND FORECAST - UK EU forecast all transport All transport plus international air and sea EU forecast road transport Road transport EU forecast cars Cars

9 Ocean acidification Ocean surface waters absorb about a quarter of the CO 2 emitted by burning fossil fuels. Ocean acidity has increased by 30% since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution 250 years ago. It is predicted that by 2050 ocean acidity could increase by 150%. Resource depletion oil, water Production of any material from finite resources tends to follow a bell-shaped curve. Production rises until about half the exploitable material has been extracted, then falls. Million barrels per day. US OIL PRODUCTION

10 Million barrels per day UK AND NORWEGIAN OIL PRODUCTION UK Norway OIL PRODUCTION AND RESERVES HISTORY AND FORECAST 9.0 BP reserves oil World reserves billion tonnes and R/P ratio World production billion tonnes per year. EU reserves oil EU reserves unconventional EU R/P ratio BP R/P ratio oil BP production oil EU production oil EU production unconventional BP Statistical Review of Energy 2008 EU Energy and Transport 2030, 2003 Demand for oil is forecast to rise steadily, mainly because of rising demand from Asia Many people doubt that production can match this forecast demand The consequences will be rising prices and erratic supply

11 Responses to climate change: - Mitigate by limiting emissions - Adapt to inevitable changes to come Global CO 2 emission limits To limit temperature rise to 2 o C, global emission of CO 2 since 1800 must be limited to 750 billion tonnes carbon By 2006, the world had emitted 500 bnt The remaining 250 bnt represents 20 years global emissions at current rates Climate Change UK Regulatory Programme The Act creates a new approach to managing and responding to climate change in UK - The net UK carbon account for 2050 to be at least 80% lower than the 1990 baseline. - The net UK carbon account for to be at least 34% lower than the 1990 baseline. - The account for intended to be 42% lower than 1990 if international agreement reached.

12 Emissions, million tonnes CO 2. CO 2 EMISSIONS AND FORECAST - UK All transport 2020 targets Road transport 2050 target Reducing CO 2 emissions and the use of fossil fuels Transport emits about 26% of the total CO 2 emissions from UK Cars emit about 13% of total CO 2 Power stations emit about 33%. We must tackle all aspects of energy use Greenhouse gas emissions from domestic transport

13 CO 2 emissions - million tonnes carbon CARBON DIOXIDE CO 2 EMISSIONS FROM TRANSPORT - UNITED KINGDOM Heavy duty vehicles are HGVs only from Passenger cars Heavy duty vehicles/hgvs HGVs plus buses Light duty vehicles Buses Railways International shipping Domestic shipping All aviation litres / 100 km FUEL ECONOMY - CAR FLEET Fleet New cars Average CO 2 emissions g/km NEW CAR CO 2 EMISSIONS Company cars Private cars

14 Technology to reduce CO 2 emissions and the use of fossil fuels is essential; But technology will not provide savings quickly enough, particularly if demand continues to grow; So behavioural change to reduce demand is also needed. Summary The evidence presented has shown you that climate change and resource depletion are threats to our way of life (but not to life itself) and will be a major technical challenge. The Challenge to Adapt: Acceptance and Initiatives Behaviour Change Managing Demand

15 The Need for Behaviour Change and Demand Management Behavioural change is needed to:- Travel less overall; Purchase fuel-efficient cars Share cars to save fuel Travel by more efficient modes, walk; Live where cars are not essential; Choose closer shops, schools, jobs, etc. Percent of total passenger km. PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL DISTANCE BY CAR ACCESS Households Main Other Non-driver * without car driver driver 22% of people Households with a car Walk Bus and coach Taxi and minicab Other public transport Car driver Car passenger Other private transport * includes children

16 Journeys per person per year JOURNEYS PER PERSON PER YEAR Note: Results re-weighed from 1995/97, causing jump in trips All modes All private Car driver Car passenger Walk Bicycle All public Local bus Rail REASONS FOR TRAVEL BY PEOPLE & GOODS Commuting 19.5% Distant Travelled/Yr For Work 9.5% Do Personal Business 6.7% Do Education 2.9% Do Visiting Friends 20.0% Do Shopping 13.0% Do Leisure 13.0% Do Holiday 7.2% Do Escort 8.2% Do Billion tonne km DOMESTIC FREIGHT MOVED All modes Road Water Rail Pipeline

17 Behaviour change The need to change travel behaviour Smarter Choices Changing the Way We Travel, DfT 2004 Local Transport Plans (LTPs) Sir Rod Eddington Study 2006 Sir Nicholas Stern s Review 2006 The King Review Part II 2008 Creating Growth Cutting Carbon Gov. White Paper Jan 2011 Smarter Choices and effectiveness Making services more accessible with real choice of when and how to travel Workplace Travel Plans School Travel Plans Hospital Travel Plans Personal Travel Plans Public Transport information and marketing Company bus services Car Clubs and car sharing Tele-working, Tele- conferencing and home shopping Cycling and walking facilities Smarter choices and reduction effectiveness - Studies to date Nation-wide all traffic High intensity 11% Nation-wide all traffic Low intensity 2-3% Workplace Travel Plans Car Commuter 10-30% School Travel Plans Car trips 8-15% Personal Travel Plans Urban 7-15% Rural 2-6% Public transport information/marketing Patronage increase City Wide 1.5-5% Car Clubs - Reduction in cars 5 per Car Club vehicle Teleconferencing - Reduced business travel 10-30% Home shopping < 5%

18 Smarter choices Sustainable Travel Towns DfT initiative 2003 and creation of showcase demonstration of sustainable travel and smarter choices Darlington Peterborough Worcester Darlington s Local Motion - a town on the Move! Darlington a town on the Move! The brand was marketed heavily to incorporate all types of sustainable travel activities taking place in the town and generate ongoing interest.

19 Darlington a town on the Move! Sustainable travel towns Peterborough - covering 11,700 households Walking: +11% Cycling: +22% Bus: +5% Car: -10% Worcester - covering 6,300 households Walking: +17% Cycling: +36% Bus: +22% Car: -12% Managing Demand Planning Policies, Strategic Assessments Of Infrastructure and Resource Needs Transport and Land-use Planning are inextricably linked. - Homes need access to work, education, shopping, health services,and leisure activities. Planning best locations and layouts for residential developments recognising need for, availability and affordability of transport choices wider fuel and environmental factors

20 Managing Demand Planning Policies & Strategic Assessments Essential Learning from history with lack of integrated approach and social exclusions - Declining levels of bus patronage, cycling and walking. - Large estates on urban edge designed around cars rather than people with low densities, dispersed or disconnected services, ( 1970s, 80s and 90s). - High density urban development failures with social breakdown in some inner cities,(1950s & 60s). Managing Demand Planning Policies & Strategic Assessments A Brave New World - Strategic opportunity to influence travel behaviour through provision of smarter travel choices. - Need to transform existing neighbourhoods within cities and towns shaping places to attract and retain families. - To promote designs using Manual for Streets and Guidance on Transport Assessment with emphasis on design quality and place shaping. Managing Demand Planning Policies Actions to secure Sustainable Developments Development Frameworks & Land Banks Better Development Designs Negotiation of Section 106 Agreements Undertake essential Integrated Transport Assessments.

21 Managing Demand Adopting Hard Measures City Centre Parking Strategies Re-allocating road space / no car areas Residential road closures for through routes Road pricing or congestion charging Promoting Cycling & Walking Modal shift potential / LT Notes & CIHT Guides DfT M investment to the six cycle demonstration towns 11m Local Sustainable Transport Fund for Bikeability 2011/12 Scheme Integrated Transport Policies Creating No Car Areas & Re-allocating Road Space

22 Creating Pedestrian Places Promoting Walking and Cycling Better use of existing network Small schemes large benefits Supply side infrastructure measures to reduce dominance of road traffic High Occupancy Lanes Active Traffic Management Driver Behaviour

23 Reduce Car Dominance Better use of existing network Before Better use of existing network After

24 BETTER USE OF EXISTING NETWORK Designing for safety Home zone safe for children and living

25 SUMMARY New economic drivers should work with rather than against integrated transport to serve new developments. Sustained integrated urban & sub-urban living patterns will become a priority as fuel prices increase. Reducing need to travel will in addition to being an environmental objective be an essential element in household budgeting-where to live and work. In addition to the need for behaviour change climate change will create opportunities to deliver new developments and residential standards to be proud of. That Challenge is now with you Thank You