RE s impact on the grid Global and Sgp perspectives

Transcription

1 RE s impact on the grid Global and Sgp perspectives ESI Seminar Thu 18 Feb 2016 Christophe Inglin Christophe@energetix.sg Energy transitions take generations, but are speeding up Coal: Oil: Natural gas: Nuclear: 18 Years to achieve 5% share Years to achieve 25% share Wind: 35 PV: 25 Pre-electric grid era Era of grid electricity In most of the world, wood and straw were the main sources of energy until at least They were renewable energy sources, but off-grid Nuclear & wind have yet to reach 25% share of energy production PV has yet to reach 5% share (est by 2020) christophe@energetix.sg 2

2 Contents Photovoltaics (PV) is past the inflection point PV = 1% of global electricity in 2014, after 100-fold growth since 2000 PV projected to soon reach 10% of global electricity supply PV already supplies >6% in Germany Growth drivers from subsidies to common sense RE s economic impact on the grid Grid stability balancing supply and demand Conclusions christophe@energetix.sg 3 PV could generate 10% of global electricity within a decade 100'000 PV share of world elec consumption grew 100-fold in 14 years World consumption 100% 1.5% CAGR 10'000 TWh/year 1'000 10% 40% CAGR 25% CAGR 1% 10% CAGR PV production* * PV production assumes global average specific yield of 1 200kWh/kWp. Underlying MWp from BNEF World consumption ( ) from US EIA. World consumption ( ) from Enerdata christophe@energetix.sg 4

3 Germany's RE share quadrupled from 8.8% to 35.6% TWh RE share = 8.8% (incl hydro) 2014: PV > gas 2013: biomass > gas 2012: wind > gas 35.6% Data: (from 50 Hertz, Amprion, Tennet, TransnetBW, EEX) christophe@energetix.sg 5 Contents Photovoltaics (PV) now on the energy radar screen Growth drivers - from subsidies to common sense PV a natural price hedge against volatile fossil fuel prices PV module prices drop as installations grow (experience curve) RE is faster to build, easier to finance, than coal or nuclear plants RE s economic impact on the grid Grid stability balancing supply and demand Conclusions christophe@energetix.sg 6

4 Oil prices are volatile and hard to predict Global banking crisis OPEC maintains quota during global slowdown US invades Iraq Asian financial crisis 911 terrorist attack OPEC quota cuts + strong world demand Hurricane Katrina Warm winter, mild hurricane season Data: Cushing, OK crude oil future contract, christophe@energetix.sg 7 Gas prices even more volatile than oil prices Coldest Nov/Dec on record. ST demand > ST supply Declining production for 6 quarters Hurricane Katrina Shale gas boom Global banking crisis Data: Henry Hub natural gas futures prices, christophe@energetix.sg 8

5 But PV gets steadily cheaper (experience curve) Module price drops ~20% as cumulative manufactured capacity doubles Polysilicon feedstock supply could not meet demand Polysilicon feedstock price collapse Data: Paul Maycock ( ), BNEF ( ) 9 PV is cheaper and faster to build than conventional Technology Capacity [MW] Lead time [Years] Install cost [USD/kW] Var O&M [USD/MWh] Fixed O&M USD/kW/yr] Adv nuclear Scrubbed coal Hydro Adv gas CC with carbon seq Solar PV Solar PV* Data from AEO2015, US Energy Information Agency. Costs in 2013 USD, for project start in 2014 * Energetix estimate, including land and full project development costs christophe@energetix.sg 10

6 Nuclear looks less and less attractive Nuclear power plants take many years to approve and build* Avg constr time [mths] Number of reactors Average construction times of 6-10 years Frequent cost overruns, fuel cost volatility Uncertain waste disposal and decommissioning costs Getting harder to secure development funding * World Nuclear Industry Status Report , Worldwatch Institute, April 2011 christophe@energetix.sg 11 Renewables dominate net new capacity in EU Source: EWEA christophe@energetix.sg 12

7 Renewables also gaining share of new capacity in US Source: EIA (includes debottlenecking and downsizing) 13 Contents Photovoltaics (PV) is past the inflection point Growth drivers - from subsidies to common sense RE s economic impact on the grid Adding distributed small-scale generators to traditional electricity grid PV shaves price peaks and lowers overall electricity prices RE disrupts economic conditions for higher-cost fossil power plants Grid stability balancing supply and demand Conclusions christophe@energetix.sg 14

8 Conventional on-demand power from centralised plant clusters 13GW already installed (~2x peak demand in 2013) Woodlands 3 355MW In 2013, 94% of electricity generated by a handful of CCGT generators Tuas 2 680MW Jurong Island 6 780MW Generating capacity (04/15) Installed (12 943MW) Pipeline (529MW) Source: EMA ( christophe@energetix.sg 15 Weather-driven power from dispersed small-scale PV plants 47MWp by Oct 2015*, heading towards 2GW within a decade * Central = 221 systems; E = 112, NE = 226, N = 45, W = 140 Total 836 systems at 30/09/15 = 47.2MWp ( PV projects (>900 sites) Installed (>60MWp) Backlog (>100MWp) christophe@energetix.sg 16

9 PV output coincides with daytime load in industrialised nations 5'500 PV shaves expensive peak load Power [MW] 5'000 4'500 4'000 3'500 Avg demand load (Mon 12 Sun 18 Mar 2007) Avg net demand after adding 2GW of PV 3'000 00:30 02:30 04:30 06:30 08:30 10:30 12:30 14:30 16:30 18:30 20:30 22:30 Demand load data from EMA (Singapore) 17 Renewable energy pushes down electricity market prices Price Electricity price formation excluding RE electricity generation impact Supply curve Price Electricity price formation including RE electricity generation impact Supply curve Nuclear Electricity exchange price Lignite Hard coal CCGT Gas turbine Merit-order effect Nuclear Lignite Hard coal CCGT Gas turbine Demand Electricity production RE plants 1 Demand Electricity production 1 Electricity from PV and wind have zero marginal cost Source: ZSW christophe@energetix.sg 18

10 Higher price conventional plants (gas) lose viability Improved CUF after post- Fukushima capacity cut nuclear lignite biomass Gas plants losing money coal hydro wind gas PV Data: (from 50 Hertz, Amprion, Tennet, TransnetBW, EEX) 19 RE has capped price spikes from 2009 Weekly day-ahead maximum & minimum German electricity prices Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer ISE. Data: EPEX-SPOT / EEX christophe@energetix.sg 20

11 High PV + wind, with low demand -> negative prices Import/export capacity helps balance grid Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer ISE. Data: EEX christophe@energetix.sg 21 Negative intraday prices on Easter Sunday 2014 * Plant utilisation compared to available capacity Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer ISE. Data: EEX Day-ahead prices were positive But intraday prices negative from 11:00-18:00 Prices from 14:00-15:00 hit EUR/MWh Load ~4GW below projections PV + wind production ~4GW above projection Plant utilisation* during 14:00-15:00 Source Power Utilisation factor PV 17.5GW - Wind 12.5GW - Pump. St. - - Gas HC 2.1GW 2.3GW 8.6% 13.1% BC 9.2GW 59.6% Nuclear 7.7GW 75.0% Bio 5.2GW - Hydro 1.7GW - christophe@energetix.sg 22

12 Contents Photovoltaics (PV) is past the inflection point Growth drivers - from subsidies to common sense RE s economic impact on the grid Grid stability balancing demand and supply Aggregate demand is predictable Managing intermittency, variability and steeper ramp rates Grid resilience through interconnectivity and storage Conclusions christophe@energetix.sg 23 Aggregate demand follows a predictable pattern (Sgp) even if individual loads are intermittent (switched on and off) 6'000 Lunch time Power [MW] 5'500 5'000 4'500 4'000 3'500 3'000 Offices closed on Sunday Half-day office on Saturday! Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun 00:30 02:30 04:30 06:30 08:30 10:30 12:30 14:30 16:30 18:30 20:30 22:30 Data: Singapore demand load from EMA during the week of March 2007 christophe@energetix.sg 24

13 Six years later, higher peak load, but same pattern (Sgp) Half-hourly demand [MW] 7'000 6'500 6'000 5'500 5'000 4'500 4'000 Lunch break Half day work Mon-Fri avg Sat Sun End of work TV + aircon at home 00:30 02:30 04:30 06:30 08:30 10:30 12:30 14:30 16:30 18:30 20:30 22:30 Data: Singapore s EMA (23 to 29 Sep 2013) christophe@energetix.sg 25 Rural demand has high evening peak (Philippines) Load profile similar to Sundays in industrialised nations 12'000 11'000 Bed time Hourly demand [MW] 10'000 9'000 8'000 7'000 End of work TV+lights at home 6'000 5'000 4' Data: ILECO-3 weekday demand, Visayas, Philippines christophe@energetix.sg 26

14 In temperate zones, load profile is seasonal (California) California s seasonal load curves [avg MW each hour] 39'000 Jul (summer) 34'000 Oct (autumn) 29'000 Jan (winter) 24'000 Apr (spring) 19'000 14' Data: CAISO one-minute data for 2014, averaged into hourly values for each month christophe@energetix.sg 27 PV output is very predictable on an annual level (but highly variable on an hourly basis in the tropics) Data: Phoenix Solar PV projects christophe@energetix.sg 28

15 Individual PV systems can show strong intermittency Single site, sunny morning and stormy afternoon Charts from SERIS (data from 25 irradiation sensors around Singapore on 12 Apr site average shows only residual variability Average of 25 sites Charts from SERIS (data from 25 irradiation sensors around Singapore on 12 Apr

16 Geographic aggregation smoothens the curves All 25 sites + average Avg fluctuates far less than individual curves Charts from SERIS (data from 25 irradiation sensors around Singapore on 12 Apr 2015 christophe@energetix.sg 31 In aggregate, PV is not intermittent; it is variable Charts: Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore (SERIS) christophe@energetix.sg 32

17 Good correlation in between forecast & actual solar in California Source: California Independent System Operator (CAISO), 28 June Forecast weather to manage intermittency Good correlation between forecast and actual electricity production in Germany (2014) Charts: B. Burger, Fraunhofer ISE; Data: EEX Transparency Platform 34

18 In California, solar growth alters net load profile 30'000 25' '000 30' '000 15'000 10'000 Peak solar share = 0.4% (15:00) 5'000 Total disp Wind Solar '000 20'000 15'000 10'000 Peak solar share = 13% (midday) 5'000 Total disp Wind Solar '000 30' '000 25' '000 20'000 15'000 Peak solar share = 6% (11:00) 10'000 5'000 Total disp Wind Solar '000 15'000 10'000 5'000 Peak solar share = 26% (midday) Solar = 8.4% of daily energy Total disp Wind Solar Data: California Independent System Operator (CAISO), 5 Feb each year christophe@energetix.sg 35 Duck curves predict rising generation ramp rates and over-generation risk Ramp rate ~13 000MW in four hours Net load: MW on 5 Apr 2015 at 15:46 Source: California Independent System Operator (CAISO) christophe@energetix.sg 36

19 Recent European solar eclipse caused extreme ramp rates Pre-eclipse = 12.9GW Germany s grid handled the 85% solar eclipse on Mid-eclipse = 5.4GW 20 Mar 2015, with 38GWp of PV connected Post-eclipse = 19.8GW Ramp rate = 130MW/min ( MW in four hours) PV supply to grid on 20/03/15 [GW] 0 04:48 07:12 09:36 12:00 14:24 16:48 19:12 Chart data: 50 Hertz, Amprion, Tennet, TransnetBW, EEX christophe@energetix.sg 37 Wide interconnectivity improves grid resilience Europe s electricity import/export helps to manage variable RE generation Import/Export in Europe, 2015 Import/Export Germany & neighbours, 2015 F CH: 9.7TWh CH F: 4.3TWh Charts: Fraunhofer ISE, Data: ENTSO-E christophe@energetix.sg 38

20 Declining battery storage prices open new opportunities A small amount of storage goes a long way to improve grid resilience Forecast price decline of a 10MW/5MWh battery storage system [USD million] Applications: Frequency regulation Renewables shifting, smoothing Peak load shifting Reactive power Spinning reserve Black start Arbitrage Hybrid RE/DG island grids system cost storage component reduction Balance of plant reduction 2019 system cost Chart: IHS, Nov 2015 christophe@energetix.sg 39 Contents Photovoltaics (PV) is past the inflection point Growth drivers - from subsidies to common sense RE s economic impact on the grid Grid stability balancing demand and supply Conclusions christophe@energetix.sg 40

21 Steep price decline triggers exponential market growth Where are the next roadblocks, and how to avoid them? Associated investment opportunities Regional grid interconnection RE resource forecasting Time of use metering Demand response Storage Data: Paul Maycock ( ), BNEF ( ) 41 Photovoltaics powering the future, today.