Sustainable Cities a Trilemma approach

Transcription

1 Sustainable Cities a Trilemma approach Building an index for cities Stuart Neil, Senior Director for External Affairs and Communications 9 th May 2017

2 hat is the Energy Trilemma? Meeting energy demand Secure energy is critical to maintaining and driving economic growth. Delivering social benefits Energy must be accessible and affordable at all levels of society. fasdf Minimising environmental impacts The impact of energy production and energy use on the environment must be reduced. orld Energy Council 2015

3 orld Energy Trilemma Index what gets measured gets done Balancing the three core dimensions of the energy trilemma is the basis for prosperity and competitiveness of individual countries. If the energy sector is to deliver on climate goals and support the achievement of development goals, it needs to do so in balance with the other two dimensions, to ensure sustainability of energy systems. ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY ENERGY SECURITY ENERGY EQUITY A basis for improvement orld Energy Council 2016 orld Energy Council 2015

4 he Index illustrates existing trade-offs and points o key areas countries must give extra attention It comparatively ranks countries in terms of their likely ability to provide a secure, affordable and environmentally-sustainable energy system. It points to key areas that countries should pay extra attention to in order to further develop a balanced energy profile and to minimise the uncertainties and risks associated with an unbalanced approach. The Index covers 130 countries - 94 member countries and an additional 36 nonmember countries. Each country is given: a rank which measures overall performance on the Index and a balance score which highlights how well a country manages the tradeoffs between the competing dimensions. Developed in partnership with Oliver Wyman

5 anada on rank 6 Challenges: Balancing resource development with environmental sustainability Developing diverse markets for energy resources Ensuring an appropriate sharing of the benefits from resource development Score Energy security A Energy equity A Environmental sustainability B Overall rank and score AAB

6 apan on rank Trend Score Energy security i B Energy equity i A Environmental sustainability i B Overall rank and score i ABB

7 iverse array of economies and priorities High-GDP per capita All Asia Low-GDP per capita 2 Low-GDP countries Armenia Azerbaijan Bangladesh Cambodia China Georgia India Indonesia Kazakhstan Mongolia Nepal Pakistan Philippines Sri Lanka Tajikistan Thailand Vietnam High-GDP countries Australia Hong Kong, China Japan Korea (Rep.) Malaysia New Zealand Singapore Taiwan, China

8 Regional differences and priorities North America Research, development and demonstration Lower carbon fossil fuel use through gas and technology deployment Europe More efficient energy use Greater share of low-carbon energy sources in energy supply Middle East & North Africa Transparent energy pricing to incentivise efficient energy use Increase share of solar and wind energy in energy supply Latin America & Caribbean Regional integration and interconnection Education and information to drive behavioural changes in consumers and increase energy efficiency Sub-Saharan Africa Tap potential for renewables and gas for energy supply Access to energy and clean cooking fuels Asia Technology transfers to manage demand growth Social acceptance of changing energy supply Increase resilience Energy efficiency and demand management

9 Creating an Index Lessons for Cities

10 country performance is based on an analysis of 60 data sets used to develop 23 indicators Total score Indicator type Dimension Indicators Country performance 100% 1. Energy performance 75% 2. Contextual performance 25% 1.1 Energy Security 25% 1.2 Energy equity 25% 1.3 Environmental sustainability 25% 2.1 Political strength 8.3% 2.2 Societal strength 8.3% 2.3 Economic strength 8.3% Ratio of total energy production to consumption Diversity of electricity generation Distribution losses as a percentage of generation Five year CAGR of the ratio of TPEC to GDP Days of oil and oil product stocks 1.1.6a For importers Net fuel imports as a percentage of GDP 1.1.6b For exporters Fuel exports as a percentage of GDP Affordability of retail gasoline Affordability and quality of electricity relative to access Total primary energy intensity CO 2 intensity Effect of air and water pollution CO 2 grams/kwh from electricity generation Political stability Regulatory quality Effectiveness of government Control of corruption Rule of law Quality of education Quality of health Cost of living expenditure Macroeconomic stability Availability of credit to the private sector 1/6 Each 1/2 Each 1/4 Each 1/3 Each 1/4 Each 1/3 Each A country s overall rank in the sustainability index consists of two indicator types: energy performance and contextual performance, weighted with a 3:1 ratio. Each of the two broad indicator types is re-divided into three, equally-weighted sub-dimensions, with equally-weighted indicators. Each indicator and the average of the dimension result are normalised (0-10, where 10 is the max). To calculate the energy and contextual performance, and the overall result, the individual dimension results are then weighted (25% or 8.3%) and added up.

11 nergy performance Energy performance considers supply and demand, the affordability and access of energy, and the environmental impact of the country s energy use. Axes Dimensions Indicators 1 Energy security 1. Consumption growth relative to GDP growth 2. Ratio energy production to consumption 3. Distribution losses as % of generation 4. Diversity of electricity generation 5a Exporters Fuel exports as % of GDP 5b Importers Fuel imports as % of GDP Energy performance 2 Energy equity 1. Affordability of retail gasoline 2. Affordability & quality of electricity relative to access 3 Environmental sustainability 1. Total primary energy intensity 2. CO2 intensity 3. Effects on air and water 4. CO2 emissions from electricity generation 1

12 nergy performance rankings are calculated by adding he individual weighted (25%) dimension results Since few countries rank highly in all 3 dimensions, many countries rank higher in overall energy performance than in any individual dimension (e.g., United Kingdom, Sweden, Austria, Spain, New Zealand) Due to the contextual performance countries can move up or down overall compared to their actual energy performance Top 11 Index performers and their energy performance compared to overall / final rank: Country Rankings Scores Weighted score Energy performance rank (by score) Switzerland Denmark United Kingdom Sweden Austria France Spain Canada Norway Germany New Zealand Final Rank

13 ontextual performance Contextual indicators consider the broader circumstances of energy performance including societal, political and economic strength and stability. Axes Dimensions Indicators 1 Political strength 1. Political stability 2. Regulatory quality 3. Effectiveness of government Contextual performance 2 Societal strength 1. Control of corruption 2. Rule of law 3. Quality of education 4. Quality of health 3 Economic strength 1. Macro-economic stability 2. Cost of living expenditure 3. Availability of credit to the private sector 1

14 ndex results roll up from indicators to dimensions to xes (or indicator types) and finally to an overall result dividual indicators are normalised to a standard scale, with consistent statistical properties (0-10, where 10 is the max) to produce index imensions and and overall index results. Example: Oil stocks in days Country Absolute Normalised Indicators Dimensions Indicator type (contextual / energy) Overall result Each of the six individual dimensions is calculated from the average of the dimension s individual, normalized indicator results. That average is then normalized again. Example, energy equity dimension To calculate the energy and contextual performance the respective dimension results are weighted (25% or 8.3%) and then added. Example, energy performance dimensions are weighted 25% each. The overall country result is based on the sum of the individual weighted dimensions. Austria Brazil Qatar Country Indic. 1 Indic. 2 Average Norm. Austria Brazil Qatar Country Security Equity Environ. Energy P. Austria 7.50 x x x Brazil 7.96 x x x Qatar 9.45 x x x Country Energy P. Contextual P. Overall Austria Brazil Qatar

15 atasets used GDP, current prices billion USD GDP (PPP), billion USD Populations, millions Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) per capita GDP Total Primary Energy Consumption (TPEC) Total Primary Energy Production (TPEP) nt Oil Data Initiative, Total Products, Thds Barrels (kbbl), Closing Stocks nt Oil Data Initiative, Product Stocks, Thds Barrels (kbbl) nt Oil Data Initiative, Crude Stocks, Thds Barrels (kbbl), Closing stocks nt Oil Data Initiative, Total Products, Thds Barrels (kb/d), Refinery intake/demand rostat demand and product stocks demand (Quadrillion BTUs) crude production (Quadrillion BTUs) I World Development Indicators Report I World Development Indicators Report bal Tracking Framework SE4All F Global Competitiveness Index TPEC, Quadrillion Btu, for last 5 years TPEP, Quadrillion Btu, for current year Petroleum demand (Kilo-barrels) Product stocks Crude oil stocks (kilo-barrels) Petroleum - Crude production supplements JODI data above supplements JODI demand supplements JODI crude production Total merchandise imports ($BN) % of merchandise that is fuel Total merchandise exports ($BN) Fuel exports as percentage of merchandise (%) Electricity generation sub-indicators; diversity of electricity production (Shannon index) DistribuQon losses (BN KWH) Total generaqon (BN KWH) Super Gasoline (US cents/litre) Access to electricity Quality of Electricity Household electricity expenditure (USD per kilowatt hour)

16 atasets used C C le Environmental Performance Index Emissions intensity (CO2 per USD GDP) Total primary energy intensity of GDP at PPP (koe/$05p) Air pollution (effects on humans) Water (effects on humans) Air Pollution (effects on ecosystem) Water (effects on ecosystem) CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion rld Bank Grammes of CO2/kWh Political stability Regulatory quality Effectiveness of government Control of Corruption Rule of law F Global CompeQQveness Index Health (index) Education (index) Macro-economic stability rld Bank ernational Comparison Program I World Development Indicators Report Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, int $ M Individual consumption expenditure by households, int $ M Domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP)

17 he structure of the Index Guiding Principles Relevance: Indicators are chosen or developed to provide insight into country situations in the context of the project goals. Distinctiveness: Each indicator focuses on a different aspect of the issue being explored, unless reinforcement is required. Balance: Indicators within each dimension (and dimensions across the Index) exhibit a coverage of different issues. Contextual sensitivity: Indicators capture different country situations (for example, wealth, size) and where appropriate indicators are normalised by GDP (PPP) and per capita. Coverage: Individual indicators are required to provide data for 85% of WEC member countries. Only countries with data available for at least 75% of all indicators were included in the Index calculation. Robustness: Indicators to be taken from reputable sources with the most current information. Comparability: Data to calculate an indicator is derived from a single common unique source to ensure comparability between countries. What is unique to cities?: Identify data specific to the city supply from grid

18 Thank you

19 orld Energy Council The world energy leaders network Since 1923 Truly global and inclusive 90+ country members OECD & non-oecd 3000 organisations Gov t / industry / academia / NGOs Strategies: global, regional, national World Energy Congress October 2016 in Istanbul, Turkey 1

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