How the Drought of 2011 Impacted Us and the Future. By: Ken Clark, Commissioner Galveston County

Transcription

1 How the Drought of 2011 Impacted Us and the Future By: Ken Clark, Commissioner Galveston County

2 Overview The Drought of 2011 Planning Process Possible Solutions

3 The Drought of 2011 Drought in Review Economic Costs

4 Drought in Review This drought has been the most intense one-year drought in Texas since at least 1895, when statewide weather records began. The annual rainfall in Texas ranges from as much as 55 inches in the eastern part of the state to as little as 10 inches in the western part of the state. This drought has been a continuous three-year drought.

5 Rain Fall Totals Late 2011 GCWA Fresh Water Intake Structure on the Brazos River

6 Drought in Review 2o inches or less of annual rain fall is considered a desert condition The Brazos River at GCWA Intake August 2011

7 Drought in Review Odessa has registered 0.77 inches of rain for the year Twelve-month rainfall was driest on record across much of western, central and southern Texas Many stations received less than 25% of normal 12-month precipitation. The historic drought has depleted Texas aquifers to lows rarely seen since 1948, It could take months or even years for the groundwater supplies to fully recharge - NASA satellite data Typically, it s going to take months to years of above average rainfalls to bring aquifers back up.

8 Drought in Review Economic Cost of the Drought Cattle Agriculture Cost Crops Fires Other Cost

9 Drought in Review Economic Cost of the Drought Cattle The state also has a long history with drought, which has cost it more than $14 billion in agriculture losses since The driest year in Texas history caused a record $7.62 billion in agriculture losses, billions more than previously estimated. Cattle account The for Brazos about River half of at Texas GCWA agricultural Intake production, which makes up 9 percent of its economy. It remains the nation's leading beef producer.

10 Drought in Review Economic Cost of the Drought Texas is the nation's No. 3 producer of agricultural products behind California and Iowa, so when crops and cattle fail in the Lone Star State, prices can be expected to rise nationally. Many ranchers sold off or slaughtered cattle after rangeland dried up and the price of hay skyrocketed. The state has its smallest herd since the 1950s after losing about 660,000 head during the drought. It could end up reducing the cattle inventory in Texas by 12 to 16 percent.

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12 Drought in Review Economic Cost of the Drought Crops The worst one-year drought in Texas history has produced a statewide hay shortage that has more than doubled the price of large round and small square bales. Many ranchers paid has much as $115 a round bale in Sept. The price for the same bale in May was $65 and in 2007 that same bale sold for $35. Feed prices have increased on average of $101 per ton, over base feed cost in a normal year.

13 Drought in Review Economic Cost of the Drought Crops Cotton losses are estimated at $2.2 billion, and corn farmers lost about $736 million. The remaining losses were largely in hay production, wheat and sorghum. If it rains, crops such as wheat, cotton and sorghum can quickly recover. Rebuilding the state's cattle herd will take longer because it can take years for pastures and grazing lands destroyed by drought to come back, and animals have to be bought or bred.

14 Drought in Review Economic Cost of the Drought Fires More than 21,000 wildfires have burned through nearly 3.7 million acres in the Lone Star State, according to the Texas Forest Service. Fires consumed 1,195 homes, though firefighters were able to prevent the flames from claiming more than 30,000. Ten people have died in the fires, including four firefighters and six civilians.

15 Drought in Review Economic Cost of the Drought Fires The largest fire was in Bastrop County consumed nearly 500 homes and 25,000 acres was the summer from hell for Texas. The cost associated with fighting the thousands of wildfires to our volunteer fire departments has been tremendous.

16 Drought in Review Economic Cost of the Drought Other Costs Lawn service business Welders working outside Fireworks stands Cracked Foundations Lost of up to 500 million Trees Impact on Wildlife Stress on our Quality of Life

17 Planning Process Water Planning in Texas Early Water Plans In Texas, planning is driven by drought Texas Water Development Board founded in 1957 ( drought) State plans from Austin in 1961, 1968, 1984, 1990, 1992, 1997 Top-Down approach to water planning Minimal local involvement Early plans emphasized reservoirs

18 Storage in Reservoirs (Million Acre-Feet) Planning Process Drought The Brazos River at GCWA Intake

19 Planning Process The Brazos River at GCWA Intake September 1956

20 Planning Process The Brazos River at GCWA Intake August 2011

21 About the Plans Planning Process The regional water plan shall provide for the orderly development, management, and conservation of water resources and preparation for and response to drought conditions -Texas Administrative Code Encourage public and stakeholder input throughout the process Study and consider: Population and demand growth Drought-of-Record water supply projections Costs of water management strategies Monetary Environmental

22 State Water Plan Developed as a compilation of Regional Water Plans Entry of regional planning data into TWDB database Published in year following conclusion of regional planning 2007 SWP followed 2006 RWPs DRAFT 2012 SWP is available Planning Process

23 Planning Process Regional Planning - Region H Regional Planning does not replace the need for planning at the local level Regional Planning does build upon local planning efforts to provide longterm, regional direction Communication and feedback are essential to the process No mandate to adopt strategies in the plans Consistency with the State Water Plan is required to: Obtain TWDB funding for infrastructure Obtain a water right permit

24 Planning Process Region H: Demand for Water Municipal 2010 census Population: 6.02-Million Industrial 2010 demand for Harris, Brazoria, and Galveston Counties 1,914,011 Ac-Ft/Yr Irrigation 2010 demand for Brazoria, Chambers, Liberty, and Fort Bend Counties: 450,175 Ac-Ft/Yr

25 Planning Process 2011 Region H Water Plan Revision to values in the 2006 Regional Water Plan Updated population and associated demand with data from various sources: State Data Center Texas Water Development Board Individual communities and water authorities Population estimates by Texas State Data Center significantly exceeded 2006 RWP projections for five Region H counties: Brazoria (6.93%) Chambers (9.26%) Fort Bend (11.39%) Harris (3.25%) Montgomery (8.54%)

26 Planning Process 2011 Region H Water Plan Revision to values in the 2006 Regional Water Plan Updated population and associated demand with data from various sources: State Data Center Texas Water Development Board Individual communities and water authorities Population estimates by Texas State Data Center significantly exceeded 2006 RWP projections for five Region H counties: Brazoria (6.93%) Chambers (9.26%) Fort Bend (11.39%) Harris (3.25%) Montgomery (8.54%)

27 Population (Millions) Planning Process Year Austin Brazoria Chambers Fort Bend Galveston Harris Leon Liberty Madison Montgomery Polk San Jacinto Trinity

28 Planning Process Demand Comparison 2010 and 2060 Year 2010 Demand Total Demand of 2.38 Mil. Ac-Ft/Yr Year 2060 Demand Total Demand of 3.53 Mil. Ac-Ft/Yr Livestock, 0.3% Steam-Eelctric, 6.2% Irrigation, 12.2% Livestock, 0.5% Steam-Eelctric, 3.8% Mining, 2.4% Irrigation, 18.9% Manufacturing, 30.4% Municipal, 43.9% Mining, 2.0% Manufacturing, 27.0% Municipal, 52.4%

29 Supply (acre-feet per year) Planning Process 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , Decade Groundwater Surface Water

30 Volume (Ac-Ft/Yr) Planning Process 1,400,000 1,200,000 Projected Shortages 1,000, , , ,000 The Brazos River at GCWA Intake 200,

31 Planning Process Water Statistics The average water usage rate within Region H varies from less than 100 gallons per person to more than 200 gallons per person. A one-inch rain on one acre of ground brings 27,154 gallons of water. A normal household, during the summer, uses 10,000 gallons of water per month. Reliant Stadium holds 3,083,240,000 [about 3.1 Billion] gallons of water, or about 9500 acre feet. For purposes of visualizing what this means, Galveston County uses approximately 115,000 acre feet a year. An Acre Foot of Water is 325,000 gallons of water.

32 Possible Solutions Conservation Price Reservoirs Groundwater Reuse Desalination

33 Possible Solutions

34 Industrial Improve processes to utilize recapture and use less water Possible Solutions Conservation Strategies Irrigation Change varies along with plant methodologies that require less water. Make it permissible for Homeowners to Zero- Scape lawns and other less water intensive practices, without HOA or Municipal code enforcement issues.

35 Possible Solutions Municipal Conservation Strategies Increase the price to discourage consumption. Low Flow Toilets Shut the water off when brushing teeth or shaving. Flow Restricted Faucets and Shower Heads. Less water intensive landscaping. Capture Air Conditioning condensation for landscaping. Use warm-up water for landscaping or houseplants. Water in the early morning and use drip irrigation. Pool covers saves 35 gallon a year per foot of water surface

36 Possible Solutions Price Strategies People want water but do not want to pay for the water. Have the price of water reflect the true cost of production. Reduced price scale as volumes of water decrease.

37 Possible Solutions Reservoirs Texas has 196 major reservoirs, a major reservoir being defined as an impoundment that currently has at least 5,000 acre-feet of storage capacity at its normal operating level. Of the 196 major reservoirs, 175 have a water supply function. Are expensive to build and acquire the land

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40 Possible Solutions Groundwater Almost 60 percent of water demands in Texas are satisfied from groundwater. An excessive groundwater withdrawal is the major cause of subsidence throughout the greater Houston area. Some experienced wells going dry in 2011.

41 Possible Solutions Reuse Reuse water can be used for landscaping and irrigation. A lot of Houston s water is reuse from the Dallas /Ft Worth area. ( 400 million gallons a day) There may be time we will have get pass the YUK factor. The 2012 state water plan predicts use of so-called reclaimed water will grow by about fifty percent by the year 2060, to 614,000 acre-feet per year, or more than 20 million gallons.

42 Possible Solutions Desalination Given our plentiful supplies of brackish water, desalination may well become a centerpiece of forward-looking Texas water policy. Throughout the state, 44 desalination plants currently supply about 120 million gallons of water. Texas s supplies of brackish water alone are estimated to be large enough to meet our water needs for 176 years. Texas s first permanent desalination plant is scheduled to open on South Padre Island in 2014.

43 Possible Solutions Desalination El Paso proved recently that desalination plants can work well, and they built theirs in two years. The state s largest plant, its capacity at full throttle is said to be 27.5 million gallons of water per day. Desalination very expensive to build and operate. It has long been prohibitively expensive, up to four times as expensive as other water treatment methods. The brackish waste could be problematic.

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45 Possible Solutions Conclusion But from a policy perspective, there is simply no time to wait and see what nature will bring. The emergency in water is now. There are no Silver Bullets. We must act early by implementing the low hanging fruit of conservation we all should do our individual part. Plan ahead as many solution will be long term. Educated family, friends and co-workers. Limited water means limited Economic Development opportunity