Ontario s Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan David Pearson Laurentian University 13 November 2011

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1 Ontario s Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan David Pearson Laurentian University 13 November 2011

2 Climate Ready: Ontario s Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Fall 2011

3 Ontario s Changing Climate These seemingly small temperature changes bring big changes in weather patterns and impacts 2010 has been estimated as the hottest year on record with significant warming in northern Ontario Warmer weather and winters in particular allow disease vectors and other pests to survive and spread Extreme wind and flooding causes major infrastructure damage Changing weather has already impacted some tourism activities (e.g. snowmobiling) 3

4 Climate Impacts Finch Avenue Washout in Toronto in 2005 resulted in ~$500M in insurance claims. Flooding resulting in infrastructure failure, backed up storm sewers, property damage. 4 4

5 Climate Impacts In 2009, Vaughan and Grey County tornadoes resulted in $76M in insurance claims. Wind damage resulting in personal injury, infrastructure and property damage, and power failures. An August 21, 2011 tornado in Goderich resulted in heavy damage to the city s downtown core and disruptions in electricity and natural gas utilities. 5 Photo: Tornado damage in Vaughan,

6 Value of Adaptation Cost of adaptation increases when action delayed Cost of climate change in Canada could escalate from roughly $5 billion per year in 2020 to $21-43 billion by 2050 (National Round Table on the Environment & Economy, 2011). In Toronto, climatic changes causing increases in the number of heat and ozone related deaths could increase costs related to premature mortality risks (insurance) by $2.6 billion per year by the 2050s. In Ontario, the impacts to timber supply due to increased pest disturbances, fires and changes to forest growth, will cost the economy a minimum of $2 billion per year by Value of early action and targeted investment Well-targeted, early investment to improve climate resilience is likely to be cheaper and more effective than complex disaster relief efforts after the event. 6

7 Climate Ready: Ontario s Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan In April 2011, Climate Ready was released; the Strategy and Action Plan: Provides a framework for current actions needed to better manage the risks of a changing climate and a vision for future actions that may be considered to 2014 and beyond Responds to the Expert Panel whose top recommendation was for an adaptation strategy and action plan Was developed through a collaborative effort across ministries and informed by meetings with key external stakeholders 7

8 Ontario s Adaptation Vision and Goals VISION A province prepared for the impacts of a changing climate through implementation of policies and programs that minimize risks to our health and safety, the environment and the economy, and maximizes the benefits from opportunities which may arise GOALS 1. Avoid loss and unsustainable investment, and take advantage of economic opportunities 2. Take reasonable and practical measures to increase climate resilience of ecosystems 3. Create and share risk-management tools to support adaptation efforts across the province 4. Achieve a better understanding of future climate change impacts across the province 5. Seek opportunities to collaborate with others 8

9 Actions to Deliver the Strategy and Action Plan Action 1: Require consideration of climate change adaptation To ensure that government policies and programs consider the impacts of climate change Action 2: The province will take leadership role and drive the implementation of the Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Act as a catalyst for new policy; assist review of existing policies Report on adaptation actions Develop risk-management framework to guide adaptation decision-making Sustain adaptation actions across government Co-ordinate/undertake economic and climate impact studies Integrate science and policy Be a resource for the public and government on adaptation Establish OPS Climate Modelling Collaborative Chair cross-ministry steering committee to ensure integration across government 9

10 Climate Ready Actions Water Resources Promote conservation through the Water Opportunities & Water Conservation Act, 2010 (Action 3) Ensure climate change considerations are integrated into Ontario s drinking water safety net and source water protection framework (Action 9) Develope an Adaptation Strategy for Lake Simcoe (Action 20) Build consideration of impacts and adaptation actions in all Great Lakes Agreements (Action 18). Buildings & Infrastructure Update the Ontario Building Code to increase resiliency to climate change impacts (Action 5) Conduct infrastructure vulnerability assessments to understand impacts of climate change (Action 6) Re-align and strengthen the winter road network in Northern Ontario (Action 11) 10

11 Climate Ready Actions Health Support the development of a heat vulnerability tool to identify at-risk populations (Actions 24 and 35) Raise awareness of Lyme disease, as disease vectors expand into new areas of Ontario with warming temperatures (Action 25) Agriculture Develop new approaches to protect plant health by undertaking research on new crops and best management practices (Action 13) Protect animal health through detection and surveillance of new and emerging animal diseases (Action 12) 11

12 Climate Ready Actions Communities Take climate change adaptation considerations into account in the Provincial Policy Statement and increasing local awareness of land use planning tools that support adaptation (Action 22) Provide outreach and training to support communities as they assess local impacts and put effective adaptation strategies into place (Actions 28 and 35) Modeling & Science Develop new monitoring programs to acquire information to inform decision-making (Action 31) Establish an OPS Climate Modelling Collaborative to strengthen the application of climate projections in government decision-making (Action 34) 12

13 Ontario Regional Adaptation Collaborative Urban Component Build capacity through outreach and training with large urban communities (e.g. municipalities, public health units) across Ontario. Partners: CAP. Rural/Northern Component Build capacity through outreach and training with small, rural, agricultural, resource-based and Northern communities across Ontario. Partners: OCCIAR. Outreach & Capacity Building Weather and Water Information Gateway: Create a web-based integrated Provincial weather and water information discovery and access service to facilitate decisionmaking the community level. Partners: MNR, ACER. Ontario RAC Public Health Tools Develop heat vulnerability assessment tool to enable public health units to deliver scarce resources during a heat event. Partner: Toronto Public Health. Municipal Risk Assessment Tools Expand and update municipal guide to assist municipalities to create risk-based vulnerability assessments. Partner: MMAH. Water Resources Risk Management Source Protection Ensure assessment reports and source protection plans for vulnerable communities in Ontario include climate change adaptation (e.g. potential water shortages) policies and data. Partners: MOE, TRCA/CO, York University. Resilient Buildings Document and make available best practices to retrofit existing homes to improve resilience to climate extremes. Information could be used to update provincial building code, municipal bylaws, current constructions practices, etc. Partner: Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction. 13

14 RAC: Drinking Water Protection Source Protection & Water Resources Management MOE, Toronto and Region Conservation Authority (on behalf of Conservation Ontario) and York University are: Establishing a community of practice site (hosted by York University) to connect climate change scientists and source protection practitioners. Providing training and technical support to Source Protection Committees to enable water budgets to integrate adaptation considerations

15 RAC: Information Gateway Weather & Water Information Gateway Provides timely access to the best available climate change impacts data and information at the local level through a web-based portal. Municipalities, conservation authorities and others can use this information to assess their adaptation vulnerabilities to facilitate community level decision-making related to climate change impacts on water including low water and drought management, flood water and stormwater management. Gateway will establish Local Adaptation Collaboratives (LACs) in five regions of the Province to test the gateway as a decision-making tool: Flooding (Otonabee Region Conservation Authority and the City of Peterborough) Stormwater Management (Toronto Region Conservation Authority) Northern Community & Integrated Risk Management (Nickel District Conservation Authority and the City of Sudbury) Source Water Protection (National Capital Commission, and the Mississippi and Rideau Source Protection Planning Committee) Low Water Response (Nottawasaga Valley Conservation Authority) 15 15

16 RAC: Heat Vulnerability Assessment Public Health Extreme Heat Vulnerability Tool Toronto Public Health has used spatial information to locate the most vulnerable populations in the City of Toronto. The primary project outcome is the implementation of a Heat-Related Vulnerability Assessment Approach using GIS Models and Mapping. This GIS tool could be used in other cities to support adaptation responses for vulnerable populations in extreme heat events. Types of decisions this tool can support: Optimal location of cooling centres Target groups for door-to-door outreach activities Identifying existing clients in at-risk areas and potential new clients Identifying residential zones where A/C may not be accessible (i.e. older construction high-rise towers, some city owned public housing units) Practical collaboration between agencies during peak demand Service delivery and emergency power setup during power outages 16 16

17 RAC: Heat Vulnerability Assessment Public Health Extreme Heat Vulnerability Tool Tool is used to geographically plot areas of high heat vulnerability against areas where there are high numbers of seniors living alone. Allows Public Health Units to target programs like cooling centres in areas where high populations of seniors are most vulnerable to heat. Sample Map Produced Using the Heat-Related Vulnerability Approach 17 17

18 RAC: Infrastructure Best Practices Increasing Building Resiliency The Institute of Catastrophic Loss Reduction is developing best practice guidance for the construction of new buildings, and retrofitting of existing buildings, to improve their resilience to weather extremes (increased frequency and intensity of windstorms, precipitation & snowloads). The data gathered through extreme event site investigations and laboratory simulations can be used to inform: updates of provincial and national building codes; municipal bylaws, and; current construction practices. ICLR is also identifying actions that owners of existing homes can take to protect their properties by preparing mitigation handbooks on wild fires and floods. Next steps have UWO Engineering staff documenting measures that homeowners could take to reduce risks associated with heavy snowfalls

19 Next Steps Annual report to the public on the action plan Part of Ontario s Climate Change Annual Report Adaptation Directorate will track programs Each goal includes a future vision which identifies potential areas of priority for consideration in the future Over the next four years, working to further integrate adaptation into government policies and programs Ensure Ontario is CLIMATE READY 19

20 Panel Report 2009 Process: ( ) Panel of 11 met with senior managers, ADMs and DMs from almost all government ministries to engage in discussion of: 1) What policies, strategies, programs and actions are being used in your ministry for adapting to the impacts of climate change? 2) What policies, strategies, programs and actions do you believe are

21 Vision 5 goals 5 implementation principles 2 key actions 37 actions across government Future Vision

22 Vision A province prepared for the impacts of a changing climate through implementation of policies and programs that minimize risks to our health and safety, the environment and the economy, and maximise the benefits from opportunities which may arise.... Note the framing: changing climate observed changes in weather patterns, not climate change a science based concept. Minimizing risk = due diligence; maximising benefits = good governance.

23 Implementation Principles 1 Seeking the best available science for decision-making while recognizing that there is uncertainty in climate change projections and the associated impacts. 2 Incorporating climate change adaptation into existing policies and programs wherever possible.

24 Implementation Principles 3 Being flexible when developing action plans to accommodate ongoing improvement in our understanding of climate impacts and potential risks. 4 Prioritizing actions that have co-benefits between mitigation and adaptation. 5 Contributing to sustainable development, taking into account the effect of decisions on current and future generations.

25 Key Action 1 Mainstreaming adaptation The Government of Ontario will require adaptation be a key consideration in updating existing policies and programs, and in developing new policies and programs. Mainstreaming adaptation.. requires adaptive efforts from every part of the provincial government.. All Ministries - not just a matter for Min of Environment or Natural Resources

26 Key Action 2 Governance and Accountability Establish a Climate Change Adaptation Directorate The Government of Ontario will create a Climate Change Adaptation Directorate to drive the implementation of the Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan..

27 The Adaptation Directorate... will Catalyze new policies and actions in and with ministries Ensure transparent accountability by reporting annually to the public on adaptation actions in the Plan

28 The Adaptation Directorate will... Develop a risk management framework for decisions Undertake / coordinate economic and impact studies One window resource for public and government Establish an Ontario Public Service Climate Modelling Collaborative Lead integration of science and policy in strategies Chair a cross-ministry steering committee

29 Steering Committee... To support the Directorate, the Government of Ontario is creating a cross-ministry steering committee to provide knowledge, advice and official points of contact on adaptation across the Ontario Public Service.

30 Goals Goal 1 (p.27) Avoid loss and unsustainable investment, and take advantage of economic opportunities loss can be significant and include lives, property and resources. Insurance industry Proactive measures to reduce the impacts of extreme weather New opportunities from e.g. growing season

31 Goal 1 Water management Infrastructure Built environment Water Transportation Energy Agriculture Tourism

32 Actions under Goal 1 (p.29) Water management... impacts Falling water levels Algal issues Flooding (e.g. Finch) Action 3 (p.30) promote water conservation Use Water Opportunities and Water Conservation Act will require municipalities to develop a Municipal Water and Sustainability Plan

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34 Actions under Goal 1 (p.31) Action 4 - Review the Ontario Low Water Response Program to improve ability to reduce impacts of drought on water supplies MNR plus other Ministries and Conservation Authorities... Flood warning system (p.32 but no action item)

35 Actions under Goal 1 (p.34) Action 5 Consider climate change impacts in Ontario s Building Code Make buildings more resilient to the impacts of extreme weather Enhance water and energy conservation

36 The Building Code... Action 5 Consider Climate Change Impacts in the Building Code The Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing is consulting on updates to the Building Code to make new buildings in Ontario more resilient to climate change impacts and to enhance their ability to conserve water and energy.

37 Physical infrastructure... Action 6 Undertake Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessments The Government of Ontario is to undertake infrastructure vulnerability assessment case studies to better understand infrastructure vulnerabilities due to the impacts of climate change.

38 Adaptation is a data-based risk assessment process in the face of uncertainty Risk Communication Step 1: Initiation: define issues, team, process, End Go Back Next Step-Take Action Step 2: Preliminary Analysis: Vulnerabilities? identify hazards, risk scenarios Step 3: Risk Estimation: risk frequency & severity Step 4: Risk Evaluation: (un)acceptability, priorities Step 5: Risk Control: adaptation plan, residual risk Step 6: Implementation and Monitoring 38

39 Actions under Goal 1 (p.34) Action 6 - undertake Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessments Min of Environment propose to use Engineers Canada Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee s protocol to assess municipal stormwater and waste water infrastructure (n.b. Investment Markets Require Disclosure... Ontario Securities Commission and Securities Exchange Commission)

40 Goal 2 Take reasonable and practical measures to increase the resilience of ecosystems Goal 3 Create and share risk management tools to support adaptation efforts across the province

41 Goals Goal 4 Achieve a better understanding of future climate change impacts across the province Goal 5 Seek opportunities to collaborate with others

42 37 Actions... Action 7 Build Climate Change Adaptation into Ontario s 10- Year Infrastructure Plan Action 8 Integrate Climate Change Impacts into the Environmental Assessment Process.. Water management. Infrastructure. Health. Great lakes. Biodiversity. Monitoring. Emergency management. Education. Land Use Planning. Action 34 Establish an OPS Climate Modelling Collaborative

43 The future of CCCSN?

44 Future vision Ontario recognizes the need for the federal government to have a continued role in managing a national approach to climate change adaptation in order to drive effective infrastructure design, climate science and other investments in light of a changing climate.

45 Future Vision The Regional Adaptation Collaborative (RAC), which will be completed in March 2012, is a small step in the right direction, but a great deal more strategic planning and funding is required. Ontario encourages the federal government to enhance its commitment and will be pleased to participate in subsequent joint initiatives designed to support national and community-based adaptation action.

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47 Know your audience... no such thing as the public Global Warming s Six Americas Leiserowitz, Maibach and Roser-Renouf,

48 3 April 2011

49 Provide consumers with choices to reduce costs and save energy the need for innovation. help families pocketbooks, reduce our dependence on finite energy sources and help create good jobs here in the United States. Policies to Reduce Consumers Costs at the Pump with More Efficient Cars and Trucks Cut Energy Bills with More Efficient Homes and Buildings

50 Innovate our way to a clean energy future Leading the world in clean energy is critical to strengthening the American economy and winning the future. Harness America s Clean Energy Potential so that 80 percent of electricity will come from clean energy sources by 2035 Win the future through Clean Energy Research and Development Lead by Example so that the Federal Government models best practices and clean energy technologies

51 Thank you

52 Context Ontario s Changing Climate There has been an increase of up to 1.4 C in average temperatures in Ontario since

53 Adaptation Primer Adaptation means: Coping with an uncertain future Taking measures to reduce the negative effects of climate change or take advantage of the positive effects Adaptation examples: Changing the way we design and build our roads, bridges and buildings to better withstand greater storm activity Studying different crop varieties that will be resilient in the face of variable temperature and water availability 53

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55 Taking adaptation seriously

56 @resources/documents/resource/stdprod_ pdf Climate Ready Released by the Ontario Ministry of the Environment 21 April, 2011 Strategies and Actions based on the 2009 Adaptation Panel report Adapting to Climate Change in Ontario.