Global Warming. Image by Parabol Studio via Shutterstock.com, with elements furnished by NASA

Transcription

1 Global Warming Image by Parabol Studio via Shutterstock.com, with elements furnished by NASA

2 Global Warming Is it real or just an alarm? Is it man made or a natural phenomenon? Should we stop using coal and oil? Are Solar and Wind energy the answer? Is there a more serious problem?

3 Even the scientists don t agree The analysis provided from both sides is inconclusive, but more scientists agree, than disagree with Global Warming.

4 Graphs of minute temperature changes measuring less than 2/100ths degree variations World temperatures range from 30 to + 40 degrees at any time From 1880 to 2010

5 Peak Same chart, but different results why? Since 2000 there has been no consistent upward trend. Why not with rising power usage?

6 Warming forecasts wrong Estimates quite wrong Since about we are burning more power every year, but warming is no longer increasing? Why no increase Since 2000?

7 How do we compare to the past? Who do we believe?

8 So, is global warming our main concern or just a symptom of a more serious problem? Consider --- Population explosion Dramatic increase in affluence, cars, planes, construction.

9 Population explosion since 1800 Humans are estimated to have existed for about 200,000 years It took until about 1800 to reach 1 billion By 1930 we doubled to 2 billion billion billion 2017 just over 7 billion 2050 estimate 9 to 10 billion

10 Too many people in the world?

11 World capacity of people Many scientists think Earth has a maximum carrying capacity of 9 to 10 billion people. One such scientist, the eminent Harvard University sociobiologist Edward O. Wilson, bases his estimate on calculations of the Earth's available resources. Oct 11, LiveScience Food sources, land available, forest clearing, Contamination, waste disposal, plastics, water supplies Energy use, construction and other Increasing affluence more use of resources

12 CO2 Emission increases China & India causes Affluence, cars, power usage.

13 Too many cars China traffic 44 lanes wide

14 India traffic Increasing wealth more cars

15 Vehicle emissions Temperature change ree g e d O.8 Carbon

16 Plane travel we are much more affluent now 16,000 planes in air on average at any time, January 2019.

17 Parramatta construction since 2005 Pre 2005

18 Land coverage

19 Castle Hill 2019 Now Already approved

20 Solar and Wind Energy Is it the answer to warming? the real challenge with AC power difficulty of managing power supply we cannot control wind and sun

21 AC Alternating Current power supply precise control is essential, voltage, frequency and current, over 3 phases, too much can be worse than too little minute by minute generation must match usage

22 In my time, electricity generation engineering post war blackouts Lynton Pix magazine photo ESCO manufacturing Co. Our lunch room, footpath in lane way I volunteered to operate the new blackout diesel supply system. Lynton

23 1948 blackout emergency supply

24 Anglicare January 2019 A small, automatic unit, outside the chapel hall All the larger units in RACFs were fully functional in the recent blackouts. Output is adjusted automatically to match usage.

25 Wind generators are huge structures To generate power similar to a fuel fired power station, you need lots of them, and constant wind. MacArthur (Australia) 140 turbines, 5,500 hectares Massive and Expensive, Over 300 tons.

26 Getting bigger

27 A massive concrete and steel base

28 The Nacelle This sits on top of the column, 96 metres high, full of huge, heavy, machinery

29 Inside wind turbine nacelle, heavy complex machinery. Total weight 300 tons

30 The wind blades are huge Casting a blade

31 Repairing blade Fires

32 MacArthur Wind farm Victoria by far the largest in Australia (at 2017), but - Output has been far below forecast Forecast to produce 32% output, actual 23% Rated at 420 MW, in 2016/17 actual 96 MW The Liddell coal plant operated at 51% capacity = 1000 MW, due to being disabled for maintenance during the year. During that time wind and solar did slightly ease that shortage, but coal, gas & diesel plants still provided 91% of the demand. Liddell is due for closure by At present there is nothing of sufficient capacity to replace it. Coal fired generators like Liddell are essential to react to usage surges.

33 Wind farms problems excess supply Germany wind farms overload Intervened 50,000 times in May. As winds pick up with little warning, engineers at control centers constantly have to keep a close eye out and be ready to act at a minute s notice and intervene if the power surges (or drops) to dangerous limits. To prevent overloading of the grid, control centers often have to shut down wind parks until the power supply moves into a safe range. These unplanned wind park shutdowns are occurring more and more often, NDR writes. Switching off has become much more frequent the workers at the control center confirm. Transformer stations in Schleswig-Holstein had to have their output reduced 50,000 times in May a record.

34 Wind farm facts from National Wind Watch USA On average, wind turbines do not generate near their capacity. Industry estimates project an annual output of 30-40%, but real-world experience shows that annual outputs of 15-30% are more typical. Wind farms need 80% backup (ie 100 MW = 80 MW batteries, coal etc?). Wind turbines cannot work in a blackout, they need connection to supply. Ratings such as.. can power up to 20,000 homes are unrealistic. Comparisons to current Coal generator output would be more factual.

35 Solar energy Ross river Queensland Up to 148 MW Enough for 54,000 homes? But at 15 to 30% average 22 to 49 MW Liddell 2000 MW, at 80% - 40 farms like this to replace Liddell. But coal and gas generators can operate 24 hours a day, solar may operate 12 hours a day, and not respond to usage fluctuations Liddell (and others) are aging, must be replaced Hail damage USA

36 Solar panel surge is overloading the electricity grid and could lead to blackouts: Energy Group Aust., May 2018 "We have almost one in three households in Queensland that have solar panels on their roof and to be honest, by world standards, that is off the chart, the electricity grid was not designed to cope with the amount of energy being generated in the middle of the day when demand is low, resulting in "solar spill". Chief Executive Andrew Dillon Energy Networks Australia says. "The first one is we start to get voltage and frequency issues, which can damage equipment or even localise outages," "The second one is we have networks saying to customers wanting to connect solar, 'No you can't do it because we're full'."

37 Coal fired power stations planned Australia? Existing 24 Planned??

38 On demand Power Banks (reservoirs) essential for maintaining constant AC supply Hydro - dams Coal, gas, diesel, nuclear, stored fuel Re-pumped hydro Batteries converted direct current (DC) - still far too small

39 Batteries The world's biggest lithium-ion battery built by tech billionaire Elon Musk's company Tesla last year in South Australia Excellent rapid response rate, but -Poor storage - 75 minutes at full output (recently 30% for 3 hours). Still very tiny At least 10 times larger needed Limited life, disposal problems?

40 Energy supply is only 26% (1/4) of the problem. The greater majority of the problem exists in other areas, how can these be managed?

41 Problems facing the world Global warming is just one part of the real problems 1. Far too many people, (fortunately birth rate is slowing) 2. Greatly increasing affluence, using up limited world resources 3. The increasing use and disposal of plastics, batteries and other contaminants 4. Food 5. Sourcing reliable and efficient energy - particularly storage

42 Benidorm Spain was a fishing village in 1950

43 Our descendants face many challenges to maintain a livable planet.