Cumulative Adverse Effects of Offshore Wind Energy Development on Wildlife

Transcription

1 Cumulative Adverse Effects of Offshore Wind Energy Development on Wildlife Wing Goodale, Department of Environmental Conservation Advisor: Dr. Anita Milman

2 Why do we care? Legal: Legal requirement to include cumulative effects in environmental assessments in the U.S., Canada, U.K., E.U. Ecological: Ecologically it is the accumulation of all anthropogenic actions over time and space Offshore wind energy development (OWED): Nearly every paper on OWED effects on wildlife finds that while the effects of one project may not be significant, those cumulatively from multiple projects will be If U.S. OWED goals are met, there would be ~9,000 turbines in the water

3 NEPA Definition Cumulative impact is the impact on the environment which results from the incremental impact of the action when added to other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable future actions regardless of what agency (federal or non-federal) or person undertakes such other actions. Cumulative impacts can result from individually minor but collectively significant actions taking place over a period of time. 40 CFR

4 Effect vs. Impact Impact action of one object coming forcibly into contact with another influence of one person, thing, or action, on another Effect a change that is a result or consequence of an action Adverse effects Used in environmental legislation NOAEL no observed adverse effect level

5 Cumulative Adverse Effects What is this? People, place, or thing?? (CAE) CAE is a process with levels of severity Low Medium High The process through which adverse effects accumulate Effect on individuals accumulate to cause population declines

6 A Modeling Approach Actions (Ai) and receptors (Rj) are discrete values taken from sets, A and R, respectively. Space (x) is represented as x-y locations in a 2-dimentional plane within a bounded area (Ω), however space could instead be represented as a set of areas. Time (t) is divided into two periods, past (t0) to present (tc) and present to some defined point in the future (t1). Masden et al. 2010

7 What are adverse effects? Chrichton 2009: The Risk Triangle

8 Adverse effects of OWED on Wildlife Hazards: physical changes to the environment from OWED (i.e., impact-producing factors ) Vulnerability: species that are vulnerable to the hazards of OWED Exposure: vulnerable species must be exposed to OWED to have adverse effects. If they are not there they cannot be adversely affected. Adverse effects = Hazards & Vulnerability & Exposure

9 Pre-construction Construction Operation Decommissioning Hazards Network connection? Individual Effects Pathways Direct Indirect Fish Sea turtle Marine mammal Bird Bat Vulnerable Receptors Time Space Exposure Cumulative Effects Pathways Additive (CAE = a + b) Synergistic (CAE > a + b) Antagonistic (CAE < a + b) Population Threshold Population Threshold Goodale and Milman 2014 Cumulative Adverse Effects

10 OWED Hazards: Cause

11 Vulnerability:Adverse Effects Direct effects: injury or death Indirect effects: habitat modification and behavioral modification (avoidance/attraction)

12 OWED Effects on Fish Pre-construction Cause: Seismic surveys (noise and pressure) Effect: Mortality (fish and eggs), displacement Construction Cause: Pile-driving (noise and pressure), trenching Effect: Mortality (fish and eggs), displacement, hearing loss, habitat modification Operation Cause: New hard substrate in the water (scour protection) & EMF Effect: Habitat modification changing local biodiversity, avoidance Decommissioning Cause: To be determined activities Effects: local disturbance of marine habitat All phases Lights, boat traffic, pollution

13 OWED Effects on Sea Turtles Pre-construction Cause: Seismic surveys (noise and pressure) Effect: Hearing damage, behavioral change Construction Cause: Pile-driving (noise and pressure), trenching Effect: Mortality (hatchlings), displacement, hearing loss, Operation Unknown Decommissioning Cause: To be determined activities Effects: local disturbance of marine habitat All phases Lights, boat traffic, pollution

14 OWED Effects on Cetaceans Pre-construction Cause: Seismic surveys (noise and pressure) Effect: Hearing damage, behavioral change Construction Cause: Pile-driving (noise and pressure) Effect: Hearing damage, behavioral change Operation Cause: new hard substrate in the water (scour protection) & EMF Effect: habitat modification changing local biodiversity, avoidance Decommissioning Cause: To be determined activities Effects: local disturbance of marine habitat All phases Lights, boat traffic, pollution

15 Pre-construction Little Construction Little OWED Effects on Birds Operation Cause: rotating turbines, project footprint Effect: morality/injury and displacement Decommissioning Little All phases Lights

16 Pre-construction Little Construction Little OWED Effects on Operation Cause: rotating turbine Effect: morality/injury Decommissioning Little All phases Lights Bats

17 Pre-construction Construction Operation Decommissioning Hazards Network connection Individual Effects Pathways Direct Indirect Fish Sea turtle Marine mammal Bird Bat Vulnerable Receptors Time Space Exposure Cumulative Effects Pathways Additive (CAE = a + b) Synergistic (CAE > a + b) Antagonistic (CAE < a + b) Population Threshold Population Threshold Cumulative Adverse Effects

18 Exposure Time Past Present Reasonably foreseeable future actions Space Project Region Cumulative effects pathways Additive (CAE = a + b) Synergistic (CAE > a + b) Antagonistic (CAE < a + B) Population thresholds Effects to individuals pass a threshold to cause population level effects Need to define your population

19 Importance of Scoping Defining the hazards (impact-producing factors) Understanding the source Homotypic Heterotypic Understanding effects pathways Defining vulnerable species Refining the receptors Having a clear baseline Stating a threshold Defining exposure Determine spatial boundaries Determine temporal boundaries

20 Mitigating CAE 1. Avoid Site projects away from biological hot spots 2. Minimize Use best practices to reduce hazards during all operational phases 3. Compensate Increase reproductive success by protecting breeding sites Increase adult survivorship by reducing other anthropogenic stressors (e.g., fisheries bycatch)

21 Challenges How do we make decisions on something that may theoretically occur but we cannot detect in the field? Lack of cause/effect evidence OWED hazards = or population decline We don t know our populations! Analysis boundaries Temporal/spatial/source Responsibility Developer/government/third party Financial, research, data management Data sharing Project based analysis can be proprietary

22 Solutions Field research Exposure: What species are where, when (i.e., surveys) Vulnerability: What species will be adversely effected (i.e., cause/effect studies) Hazards: What are the impact producing factors and how far do they propagate into the environment (e.g., distance of pile-driving noise) Guidelines: BOEM CAE scoping guidelines to provide certainty to developers and regulators on what to include in an analysis Collaborative governance Actions/decisions need to be taken PRIOR to CAE being detected (if it can be detected) Private-public partnerships Mitigation on assumed/predicted adverse effects Best practices Avoid/minimize/compensate

23 My Research Step 1: Literature Synthesis Effects of OWED on wildlife CAE literature Framework for understanding CAE Scoping CAE assessment Step 2: Interviews with regulators 12 complete Step 3: Analysis of EIS of OWEDs in U.S. and Europe How has CAE been approached

24 Thank you! Questions?