The international global-change research programmes on Earth System Science

Transcription

1 Governance Summer School, SENSE in Amsterdam The international global-change research programmes on Earth System Science Rik Leemans Professor in Environmental Systems Analysis, Wageningen University Chair SC-ESSP

2 Outline o A global-change problem illustrated by changes in ecosystem services o Communicating research results: science-policy assessments (exemplified with the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment) o The international global change programmes and their Earth System Science Partnership ESSP o The visioning process, Belmont forum and the Earth System Research for Global Sustainability Initiative Possible questions for discussion: o How do we govern or stimulate international collaborative interdisciplinary research? o How to improve the utility of such research? o How can global-change problems be solved?

3 Trends in direct drivers Boreal forest Temperate forest Tropical forest Temperate Grassland Mediterranean Tropical grassland and savanna Desert Inland water Coastal Marine Island Mountain Polar Habitat change Human-appropriated net primary production as a percentage of potential net primary production (Haberl et al. 2008) Impact is increasing Impact is at a constant rate Impact is decreasing

4 Trends in direct drivers Habitat change Boreal forest Temperate forest Tropical forest Pollu?on Temperate Grassland Mediterranean Tropical grassland and savanna Desert Inland water Coastal Marine Island Mountain Polar Impact is increasing Impact is at a constant rate Impact is decreasing

5 Trends in direct drivers Boreal forest Habitat change Pollu?on Climate change Temperate forest Tropical forest Temperate Grassland Mediterranean Tropical grassland and savanna Desert Inland water Coastal Marine Island Mountain Polar Impact is increasing Impact is at a constant rate Impact is decreasing

6 Trends in direct drivers Boreal forest Habitat change Pollu?on Climate change Invasive species Temperate forest Tropical forest Temperate Grassland Mediterranean Tropical grassland and savanna Desert Inland water Coastal Marine Island Mountain Polar Impact is increasing Impact is at a constant rate Impact is decreasing

7 Trends in direct drivers Boreal forest Habitat change Pollu?on Climate change Invasive species Over- exploita?on Temperate forest Tropical forest Temperate Grassland Mediterranean Tropical grassland and savanna Desert Inland water Coastal Marine Island Mountain Polar Impact is increasing Impact is at a constant rate Impact is decreasing

8 Tradeoffs Enhancement of some services often leads to degradation of others creating new winners and losers

9 The Objective of the Biodiversity Convention is to conserve biodiversity, the sustainable use of its components and the fair and equitable sharing of the benefits arising out of its u;lisa;on.

10 Ecosystem Services in Web of Science

11 Ecosystem Services in Web of Science Bioscience, 1983 Cited over 1850 times

12 The MA: Unprecedented Changes Humans have made unprecedented changes to ecosystems in recent decades to meet growing demands for food, fresh water, fiber, and energy.

13 The MA: Unprecedented Changes o Humans have made unprecedented changes to ecosystems in recent decades to meet growing demands for food, fresh water, fiber, and energy o These changes have helped to improve the lives of billions, but at the same time they weakened nature s ability to deliver other key services such as purification of air and water, protection from disasters, and the provision of medicines o The pressures on ecosystems will increase globally in coming decades unless human attitudes and actions change

14 The MA: Unprecedented Changes o Humans have made unprecedented changes to ecosystems in recent decades to meet growing demands for food, fresh water, fiber, and energy o These changes have helped to improve the lives of billions, but at the same time they weakened nature s ability to deliver other key services such as purification of air and water, protection from disasters, and the provision of medicines o The pressures on ecosystems will increase globally in coming decades unless human attitudes and actions change

15 The way forward: Involving businesses to value biodiversity The Economics of ecosystems and biodiversity (TEEB) study: Mainstreaming economics of nature Some messages for business: o All companies impact on biodiversity and depend on ecosystem services o Biodiversity risks to business are real, tangible and should be managed o Managing these risks involves looking beyond sites and products o Effec;ve biodiversity risk management may be facilitated by enabling frameworks and partnerships

16 TEEB s Adaptive Management Framework incorporates the ecosystem approach

17 The way forward: Communica?ng to policy makers A new assessment for Biodiversity and ecosystem services The intergovernmental UN platform IPBES aims at catalyzing a global response to the loss of biodiversity and world's economically-important ecosystems. IPBES will bridge the gap between scientific knowledge on the accelerating degradation of the natural world, with knowledge on effective solutions and decisive government action required to reverse these damaging trends.

18 The way forward: innovative & integrative research

19 History of global change research Climate Change monitoring and prediction of regional climate and climate variability hydrological research sources and sinks of greenhouse gases land use and biodiversity socio-economic analysis of adaptation and mitigation strategies Multidisciplinary Global Change interdependency of global processes in terms of biogeochemical and atmospheric processes Sustainability Research analysis of socio-economic driving forces exploration of development trajectories with a smaller impact on the environment Interdisciplinary analysis of potential (Industrial Transdisciplinary Transformation) synergies in policies development and testing of addressing global research methodologies/ change concepts in view of systems methods development change and transition in the and testing in processes of production and integrated assessment consumption of energy, food and fibre Integration and Integrated Assessment Methods Understanding of complex mechanisms underlying climate change, global change and sustainability, the driving force, impact and response patterns regarding the relation between society and environment, integrated assessment modeling, indicators, scenarios, system transition and science policy.

20 innovative & integrative research: Earth System Science partnership ESSP is a joint initiative of

21 Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) ESSP facilitates the study of the Earth s environment as an integrated system in order to understand how and why it is changing, and to explore the implications of these changes for global and regional sustainability.

22 The ESSP programmes provide policy relevant information in all stages of understanding and dealing with environmental problems.

23 Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability (COSUST) o New GEC journal with review and synthesis and synthesis papers o Science strategy papers o ISI-listed after two years with first Impact Factor of 2.2 (Q2). ESSP is a joint initiative of

24 ESSP Science Highlights GCP: Carbon Budget 2009 Friedlingstein P, Houghton RA, Marland G, Hackler J, Boden TA, Conway TJ, Canadell JG, Raupach MR, Ciais P, Le Quéré C. Update on CO 2 emissions. Nature Geoscience, DOI /ngeo_1022, Online 21 November ESSP is a joint initiative of

25 ESSP Science Highlights -GWSP ESSP is a joint initiative of

26 ESSP Science Highlights GECAFS Synthesising 10-years of research ESSP is a joint initiative of

27 GECAFS gave birth to CCAFS Climate Change and Food Security CCAFS seeks to overcome the threats to agriculture and food security in a changing climate, exploring new ways of helping vulnerable rural communities adjust to global changes in climate. ESSP is a joint initiative of

28 Science Update to UNFCCC-SBSTA The ESSP, the regional intergovernmental research networks and IPCC presented s science update to the Parties at the UNFCCC-SBSTA in Bonn in June. The goal of the mee;ng was to present emerging science and enhance dialogue between the research community and the Par;es to the UNFCCC. hjp://unfccc2.meta- fusion.com/kongresse/sb32/ templ/play.php?id_kongresssession=2731&theme= unfccc

29 SBSTA 33 Dialogue Highlights of talks o Ocean acidification (and warming) Before bleaching o Biodiversity loss o Planetary boundaries o Emissions and sinks paths o IPCC mistakes and adaptation in Himalaya After bleaching Species extinctions and changes in ecosystem services require a link between UNFCCC and CBD ESSP is a joint initiative of

30 The Belmont Challenge Urgent needs: o Coordinated efforts and enhanced support to address the needs of a sustainable environment and development. o Facilitate the dialogue between scientists, decision makers and the general public to support decisions and actions at the forefront of society s Priorities needs. to address the Belmont Challenge: o Encourage natural and social scientists to work o Develop Earth System knowledge for different together to ensure that environmental knowledge regions most effectively meet the needs of society. o Facilitate the communication of knowledge to o Maintain decision and expand makers. access to, and use of, the current global observing and monitoring systems. o Respond o Nurture to society s the next increasing generation demand of for experts detailed information at the regional and local scales. ESSP is a joint initiative of

31 ICSU s Visioning process The Grand Challenges There is a need for transitions from: o Research dominated by the natural sciences to research involving the full range of sciences and humanities. o Research dominated by disciplinary studies to a more balanced mix of disciplinary research and research that draws disciplinary expertise into an integrated approach that facilitates inter- and trans-disciplinarity. See for more information: ESSP is a joint initiative of

32 ICSU s Visioning process The grand Challenges: Progress in understanding and addressing both global environmental change and sustainable development requires better integration of social science research. ESSP is a joint initiative of W. V. Reid, D. Chen, L. Goldfarb, H. Hackmann, Y. T. Lee, K. Mokhele, E. Ostrom, K. Raivio, J. Rockström, H. J. Schellnhuber, A. Whyte Earth System Science for Global Sustainability: Grand Challenges. Science 330,

33 ICSU s grand Challenges 1.Forecasting: Improve the usefulness of forecasts of future environmental conditions and their consequences for people. What environmental changes result from human actions? How would those changes affect human well-being, and how are people likely to respond? What threats does global change pose for vulnerable communities and what are effective responses in reducing harm to those communities? ESSP is a joint initiative of

34 ICSU s grand Challenges 2.Observing: Develop, enhance & integrate the observation systems needed to manage global and regional environmental change. What do we need to observe in coupled social-environmental systems and at what scales, in order to respond and adapt to global change? What are the characteristics of an adequate system for observing and communicating this information? ESSP is a joint initiative of

35 ICSU s grand Challenges 3.Confining: Determine how to anticipate, recognize, avoid and manage disruptive global change. Which aspects of the coupled social-environmental systems pose significant risks of positive feedback with harmful consequences? How can we identify, analyze and track our proximity to thresholds and discontinuities in coupled social-environmental systems? What strategies for avoidance, adaptation and transformation are effective for coping with abrupt changes? How can improved scientific knowledge of the risks of global change and options for response most effectively catalyze and support actions by citizens and decision-makers? ESSP is a joint initiative of

36 ICSU s grand Challenges 4.Responding: Determine what institutional, economic and behavioural changes can enable effective steps toward global sustainability. What institutions are effective in balancing the trade-offs inherent in coupled social-environmental systems across local, regional and global scales and how can they be achieved? What changes in economic systems and lifestyles contribute most to improving global sustainability and how could they be achieved? How can institutions prioritize and mobilize resources to address poverty, social injustice and development needs under growing environmental pressures? How can the need to curb global change be integrated with other interconnected global policy challenges? How can effective, legitimate, accountable and just, collective environmental solutions be mobilized at multiple scales? ESSP is a joint initiative of

37 ICSU s grand Challenges 5.Innovating: Encourage innovation (coupled with sound evaluation mechanisms) in developing technological, policy, and social responses to achieve global sustainability. What incentives are needed to strengthen systems for technology, policy and institutional innovation to respond to global change and what good models exist? How can pressing needs for innovation and evaluation be met in the following key sectors? ESSP is a joint initiative of CSES= coupled social-environmental sy

38 Earth System Research for Global Sustainability: A New 10-Year Research Initiative o The status quo cannot deliver the integrated research that is needed to effectively respond to the Grand Challenges. o The current The GEC goals programs of the and Initiative ESSP face are a to: number of challenges that Deliver will at make global it difficult and regional for them scales to answer the the Grand Challenges knowledge that societies need to effectively (e.g. a shortage of resources; difficulty in attracting young scientists; respond overly complex to global structures; change insufficient while dialogue meeting with policy makers; and limited economic inter- and and trans-disciplinary social goals; collaboration). o There is hence Coordinate a need for and a focus new structure international which scientific allows more integration of research the existing to address GEC structures the Grand and Challenges activities. The Grand Challenge and Belmont agenda should Challenge; be owned by the new initiative. An overarching Engage governance a new committee generation should be of set-up researchers rapidly to guide in the implementation of the transformation. the social, economic, natural, health, and The overarching steering committee should have the following tasks: Scientific engineering sciences in global sustainability leadership and coordination of a major new integrated research program research. emanating from the Grand Challenge report, Co-design and coordination with international funding agencies, and Co-design with partners ESSP is a joint initiative of

39 Initiative Characteristics o Focus on global sustainability research. It needs to deliver the knowledge that societies need at global and regional scales to effectively respond to global change while meeting economic and social goals. This requires an improved integration of scientific disciplines and structures. o Cutting-edge network structure. The progress that has been made on global change research over the last decades was due in no small part to the effective use of coordinated research networks. o Built around strong regional nodes. Strong regional research nodes that can more effectively identify and respond to needs and priorities of decision-makers at regional and national scales. ESSP is a joint initiative of

40 Initiative Characteristics o Active engagement with decision-makers. Mechanisms exist through which the scientific community can interact with decision-makers at the global scale (e.g. IPCC, CBD). A critical need now exists for similar arrangements to better facilitate sciencepolicy interactions at regional scales. o Actively engage the full range of disciplines. Tackling the grand challenges for global sustainability research requires a stronger involvement and greater integration of the social sciences, economics, health sciences, engineering and humanities, along with the natural sciences. o Actively engage young scientists. To succeed, the Initiative must focus on exciting research questions, must be open to bottom up innovation in research directions, and must proactively ensure that governance and decision-making in the Initiative actively incorporates both younger and more senior scientists. ESSP is a joint initiative of

41 How to succesfully engage Social Science and Humanities (SSH)? o Generally find ways of moving ESS to the heart of the field Let the SSH define their agenda in their terms Focus on real societal problems Get leading scientists in the relevant disciplines to lead the debate o Give it sufficient time and provide appropriate instruments to facilitate (see next slide as some of the instruments are common to dealing with interdisciplinarity) o Allow for blue sky type of projects on ESS to help build the field o Find ways of coping with the qualitative nature of much SSH work (or: do not a priori exclude narratives etc.) o In international collaboration on SSH: pay attention to the cultural differences and schools of thought between fields and between countries o Pay attention to the data needs of SSH (Done in ICSU visioning process)

42 Planet Under Pressure 2012 New knowledge towards solutions Based on the latest scientific evidence, this conference will provide a comprehensive update of our knowledge of the Earth system and the pressure our planet is now under. The conference will focus on climate, ecological degradation, human well-being, planetary thresholds, food security, energy, governance across scales and poverty alleviation. The conference will discuss solutions, at all scales, to move societies on to a sustainable pathway. It will provide scientific leadership for the UN conference on sustainable development, Rio +20, also in ESSP is a joint initiative of

43 Concluding remarks o Biodiversity and ecosystems provide us essential services but this is poorly recognised. They are an essential part of global-change research and governance. o The are ample opportunities to move towards a more sustainable world. o Integrated approaches are cool: You ll work with other disciplines in an integrated way (i.e. real interdisciplinary science). This increases understanding. You ll work with decision- makers, resource managers and lay-people to get it right (i.e. trans-disciplinary science). This increases relevance!

44 Developing an integrated Earth System Science Possible questions for discussion: o How do we govern or stimulate international collaborative interdisciplinary research? o How to improve the utility of such research? o How can global-change problems be solved? Courtesy of J. Rockström Resilience Allience