Peter Lilienthal, Ph.D.

Transcription

1 Optimizing Clean Power Everywhere Microgrids: Emerging Global Trends Islanded Grid Wind Power Conference Anchorage, Ak. March 6, 2015 Peter Lilienthal, Ph.D th St, Suite 100, Boulder, Colorado 80301, USA

2 HOMER NREL: Original developers now at HOMER Energy 120,000 users in 193 countries New versions released quarterly 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,

3 HOMER Industry standard for hybrid micro-grids Conventional resources Renewable resources Storage Load Management

4 The Future of Power Clean, distributed power with hybrid renewables and smart micro-grids But how do we get there?

5 Too Many Choices Wind Hydro Geothermal Biomass Fuel Cells Micro-turbines Micro-grids Demand Response Electric Vehicles Smart grids Load Management

6 What is best? Depends on the application Resources Loads Equipment prices Equipment performance A confused mind says No! HOMER fits the pieces together

7 Penetration Analysis from HOMER

8 Micro/mini/nano/pico???? < 1kW Solar home systems & lanterns 100% renewable kw Cabin in the woods Energy access in developing countries Possibly an infrequently used backup generator 100 kw 10 MW Typical Alaskan villages Multiple generators Moving to higher penetrations > 10 MWs Caribbean islands Looking at low penetration

9 Microgrid Value Proposition Reliability Emergency Services Forward Opera:ng Bases Developing Country Off- Grid Developing Country On- Grid Military Bases Renewable Energy & Electric Vehicle Grid Integra:on Fuel Savings Mines Campuses with CHP Islands Ecotourism Campuses without CHP Reduced Emissions

10 5M barrels oil/day burned for electricity $180 $180 billion billion per per year year 50-80% 50-80% reduction reduction possible possible

11 Lessons from the Remote Market What to do when the wind blows too strongly Secondary loads What to do when it stops too abruptly Load management as spinning reserve What to do with storage Use it sparingly until costs come down Stop thinking about base and peak loads Flexibility is the buzzword Small isolated grids are the smart grid trailblazers.

12 Clean Power Evolution Large u:li:es Security obstacles Regulatory obstacles Smaller systems Liquid fuels from oil High renewable penetra:ons

13 The Coming Train Wreck

14 Everybody s been crying Wolf.

15 The Coming Utility Finance Death Spiral

16 Renewables Evolution Pot Farmers & Mad Scientists Tax Shelters Real Economics High Penetrations Entering a new era Where are the real economics? How do you create high penetrations? Hint: do it in stages

17 Conclusions Diesel fuel displacement is the near term market with real economics Isolated utilities are the real trailblazers Integration issues are significant but manageable Require a lower cost development process Simpler models The larger utility market requires regulatory change Flexibility is the new buzzword Transition in stages We live in interesting times Contact - Dr. Peter Lilienthal peter@homerenergy.com