China s Cities at a Crossroads: Coping with History s Largest Urban Migration. Rob Watson, NRDC E2 San Francisco Earth Day, 2006

Transcription

1 China s Cities at a Crossroads: Coping with History s Largest Urban Migration Rob Watson, NRDC E2 San Francisco Earth Day, 2006

2 China s Unprecedented Urban Migration Over the next 20 years: 400 million people into cities Equivalent to 2 new New York Cities per year China s urban dwellers use three times resources of rural inhabitants We must rethink Cities and rethink Buildings to avoid a catastrophe

3 The Fantasy

4 The Reality

5 Energy Use & Atmospheric Emissions Buildings represent 40-45% of China s energy consumption

6 Water Use: >80% Potable water

7 40-50% of all materials and wood use

8 90% Time Spent Indoors

9 2 million acres developed each year in China Equivalent of combined area of Delaware and Rhode Island 25% of this is farmland being replaced by development each year

10 Growth in China s Oil Dependency 70% 60% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 8% 31%

11 Effect of Congestion on Networks

12 Inevitable

13 Land Use Choices Automobile Dependent Pedestrian Friendly

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15 Reality

16 What are Green Buildings? Sustainable land use & site planning Safeguarding water and water efficiency Energy efficiency and renewable energy Conservation of materials and resources Indoor environmental quality

17 Re-Thinking Water

18 Water Availability on Earth 97% 2% 1% 1% 0% Salt Water Ice Groundwater Surface water 0.03% is Surface Water ½ is contaminated; ¾in China 0.67% is Ground Water ½ is contaminated or inaccessible

19 Water Policy Measures Mandatory water efficiency standards Market Incentives Costs less to save a ton of water than to build the infrastructure to deliver it to the end-user

20 Re-Thinking Energy

21 China Energy Crisis 2004 Power shortage = 30 Diablo Canyons Growth forecast >10% Affects social and economic development

22 China Energy Crisis Skyrocketing growth in building energy consumption is biggest problem 50% of summer peak is air conditioning Enterprises experience production stoppages due to blackouts

23 Total Electricity Use, per capita, ,000 kwh 12,000 U.S. 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 California 8,000 7,000 2,000 Californian policies save a net of $1,000/family 0 KWh

24 Energy Policy Measures Enforce mandatory energy code Also address water and indoor air quality Demand-side management (DSM) programs Utility hook-up fees

25 Re-Thinking Materials

26 Biomimicry: Learning from Nature Mussels create glue that sets underwater with minimal energy and no pollution Abalone shell is harder than manmade ceramics w/ no heat or pollution Spider silk is stronger than steel with no contamination

27 Re-Thinking Indoor Environment

28 Importance of Indoor Environmental Quality People spend up to 90% time indoors Indoor air more polluted than ambient air Occupant salaries are largest cost of buildings Good indoor environments promote health productivity competitiveness

29 Costs of California Floorspace $/SF Energy Salaries Rent O&M % of time chasing 10% of benefits?

30 ACCORD21: China s 1 st Certified Green Building

31 ACCORD21: Energy Efficiency Benefits % Savings Typical Practice New Standards ACCORD21

32 ACCORD21: Environmental Benefits If all non-residential new construction followed the ACCORD21 model: Electricity savings = Three Gorges Dam Water savings = needs of Shanghai households

33 NRDC Strategic Market Transformation Plan Demonstration Projects Mandatory Minimum Measures Green Building Programs Demonstration Projects Develop Standards Pilot Implementation Industry Development Mandatory Full Implementation Continuous Improvement Increasing Stringency Training Gov t Officials & Workers Designers Professionals Procurement Buildings Early Adopter Programs Equipment Incentive Programs Beyond Standards Incentives Develop Standards Pilot Implementation Industry Development Full Implementation Continuous Improvement Advanced Green Technology Mainstream Green Technology

34 Capturing Lost Opportunities Miss initial opportunity: waste and damage go on for years Marginal cost lowest for new construction Integration = additional benefits + eliminates extra costs

35 Revitalizing Urban Environments

36 Economic Benefits of Green Buildings Competitive first costs -2% to +15% ROI increase by 6.6% Occupancy up 3.5% Rent up 3% Reduced operating costs 8-9% lower Building value increase by 7.5%

37 Green Building Benefits CA Study $70.00 $60.00 $50.00 $40.00 $30.00 $20.00 $10.00 $0.00 ~$6.45 Costs/SF ~$64.50 Benefits/SF

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39 Build green, everyone profits.