Section 4.13 Population and Housing Introduction

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1 Section 4.13 Population and Housing Introduction This section addresses potential impacts of the Project on population, housing, and employment in the Project area; and provides an overview of current population estimates, projected population growth, current housing, employment trends, and the regulatory setting. Sources of information and data provided in this section include but are not limited to the Kern County General Plan and Housing Element, the 2000 Regional Housing Assessment Plan, and demographic information from the California Department of Finance (DOF), the California Economic Development Department (CEDD), the U.S. Census Bureau, and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Environmental Setting Regional and Local Population Trends With an area of 8,202 square miles, Kern County is the third largest county in California. Because of its size, the Kern County Housing Element divides the County into nine (9) subareas. The Project site would be located in the following two (2) subareas: Tehachapi Subarea. The Tehachapi subarea encompasses 1,264 square miles, and had a population of 33,077 in 2006 with 21,098 residents in its unincorporated areas. Within this subarea, the City of Tehachapi is the only incorporated city, which is located seven (7) miles north of the Project site, and the unincorporated communities within the Tehachapi subarea include Golden Hills, Stallion Springs, Bear Valley Springs, Cummings Valley, Alpine Forest and Old Town, none of which are in the vicinity of the Project site. Antelope Valley subarea. The Antelope Valley subarea encompasses 1,381 square miles, and had a population of 43,278 in 2006 with 30,619 residents in its unincorporated areas. This subarea includes the incorporated California City and the unincorporated communities of Boron and North Edwards, none of which are in the vicinity of the Project site. However, the Project site borders the unincorporated communities of Mojave, Willow Springs and Rosamond. Existing development in the area includes rural access roads, nine (9) residences within one (1) mile of the Project site, hunting blinds (in use and abandoned), unauthorized off-highway vehicle use, and planned/existing meteorological towers (met towers). Table presents current population trends in Kern County, based on the population estimates and projections from the DOF with the 2000 benchmark (DOF population estimates are projections and are subject to change). As shown in the table, population growth in Kern County is heavily concentrated in the incorporated cities. Morgan Hills Wind Energy Project July 2011

2 Table Kern County Population Trends DOF Area 2000 Total 2009 Total 2010 Total Percent Change Percent Change Population Population Population 2000 to to 2010 Incorporated 397, , , % 1.5% Unincorporated 264, , , % 1.5% Total 661, , , % 1.5% Source: California Department of Finance, E-5 Population and Housing Estimates for Cities, Counties and the State, , with 2000 Benchmark (DOF, 2010a) The DOF issued a press release dated December 9, 2010, that summarized population trends during the State fiscal year beginning July 1, 2009 through July 1, 2010, and was based on population estimates. California s growth rate during this fiscal year was less than 1 percent (1%), continuing the pattern of slower growth rates each year since The only years of lower growth rates since 1900 were in the years 1994 through With a growth rate of 1.28 percent (1.28%) between 2009 and 2010, Kern County was the fifth fastest growing county in California and continues to be the thirteenth-most populated county. (DOF, 2010b) Population trends in Kern County have been historically volatile and are expected to be the same in the future. Variability in population can be attributed to historic energy cycles and, recently, to increased construction and associated in-migration. The increase in population during the past years is largely driven by the significant amount of construction, as well as housing that is still affordable, relative to the coastal areas of California. As a result, between the years of 2001 through 2006, Kern County was experiencing significant migratory growth with an average of three percent (3%) growth per year. However, due to current economic conditions, population trends have decreased to one percent (1%) growth per year. Current projections estimate that Kern County total populations will be 1,080,000 by 2020 (DOF, 2007). Regional and Local Housing Trends Housing as a whole in Kern County has grown and continues to grow at a fairly rapid pace. Table provides housing data based on DOF estimates, which indicate that housing has increased in incorporated areas of Kern County since 2000 more than in unincorporated areas of Kern County (DOF, 2010a). Housing units include single-family residences, multiple-family residences, and mobile homes. Table Kern County Housing Trends DOF 2000 Total 2010 Total Percent Change Area Housing Units Housing Units Incorporated 130, , % Percent Vacant Unincorporated 100, , % Percent Vacant Total 231, , % Percent Vacant Source: California Department of Finance, E-5 Population and Housing Estimates for Cities, Counties, and the State, , with 2000 Benchmark (DOF, 2010a) Morgan Hills Wind Energy Project July 2011

3 Regional and Local Employment Trends Kern County s economy is based on agriculture, energy, oil, aerospace, healthcare, tourism and transportation and warehousing (KCEDD, 2010). Despite this seeming economic diversification, the overall performance of the County has been mixed in recent years when compared to the State and other counties. This is due in part to the cyclical and uncertain nature of oil and aerospace which are often affected by many external factors. Further, the agricultural sector consists largely of lower paying and often seasonal employment which limits the positive multipliers within the economy. Moreover, key industries in the County, like value-added agriculture, are regional and national leaders, and new ones, such as transportation, logistics and warehousing have emerged. The County also has distinctive assets related to renewable energy and aerospace, two areas with significant potential to expand and develop. Wind, solar, biomass and geothermal are established forms of locally-generated renewable energy. Aerospace potential is driven by the emergence of private sector space-travel activities as well as other private sector aerospace activities and government contracts related to the County s two (2) military bases (KCEDD, 2010). Kern County had a labor force of 358,400 persons and an unemployment rate of 17.5 percent (17.5%) in March 2011, compared with California s unemployment rate of 12.3 percent (12.3%) in the same month (CEDD, 2011). Kern County s unemployment rates have generally followed the same trends as the State and national average, but have been consistently higher. In 2000, the County s labor force was 267,603 with 6.7 percent (6.7%) unemployment (US Census, 2000). Based on the current labor information above, over the last decade the County s labor force increased by 25.3 percent (25.3%); however, recently unemployment rates have grown by 10.8 percent (10.8%) due to deteriorating economic conditions across the country. In comparison, California had a labor force of 18.0 million with a 12.3 percent (12.3%) unemployment rate in March 2011 (CEDD, 2011) and a labor force of just over 17 million and a 4.7 percent (4.7%) unemployment rate in January 2001 (BLS, 2011). As mentioned above, this increase in unemployment rates is due to deteriorating economic conditions throughout the country. As of 2009, 20.4 percent (20.4%) of individuals in Kern County lived below poverty level, compared to 13.2 percent (13.2%) for California (U.S. Census, 2009a and 2009b). Several industries provide employment opportunities in Kern County. Table summarizes the industries in Kern County as well as the percent of the County population that each industry employs based on 2000 U.S. Census data, which is the most recent available data. Table Industries in Kern County Industry Percent of Population Agriculture, forestry, fishing, hunting, and mining 12.3 Construction 6.9 Manufacturing 6.0 Wholesale trade 4.8 Retail trade 10.7 Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 5.3 Information 1.8 Finance, insurance, real estate, and rental and leasing 4.8 Morgan Hills Wind Energy Project July 2011

4 Table Industries in Kern County Industry Percent of Population Professional, scientific, management, administrative, and waste management services 7.6 Educational, health, and social services 19.6 Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services 7.1 Other services (except public administration) 5.0 Public administration 8.2 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, DP-3 Profile of Selected Economic Characteristics: 2000 (US Census, 2000). As noted in Table , educational, health, and social services; agriculture, forestry, fishing, hunting, and mining; and retail trade industries provided the greatest amount of County employment opportunities in Kern County employment projections between 2008 and 2018 by industry type are shown in Table Table Industry Employment Projections for , Bakersfield, Kern County Annual Average Employment Employment Change Industry Title Numerical Percent Self Employment 17,200 18,600 1, Private Household Workers 3,100 4,200 1, Total Farm 49,600 48, Mining and Lodging 10,700 11, Construction 16,500 18,000 1, Manufacturing 13,700 15,500 1, Wholesale Trade 7,700 10,200 2, Retail Trade 27,400 30,300 2, Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities 9,600 10,700 1, Information 3,000 3, Finance and Insurance 5,500 5, Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 3,300 3, Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 10,500 14,100 3, Management of Companies and Enterprises 2,400 2, Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 12,200 14,800 2, Education Services (Private) 1,900 2, Health Care and Social Assistance 23,600 33,300 9, Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 21,500 25,900 4, Accommodation and Food Services 19,100 23,000 3, Other Services 7,000 7, Federal Government 9,800 10, State Government 10,000 10, Local Government 41,700 47,200 5, Source: California Economic Development Department, Industry Employment Data, 2009 (CEDD, 2009) Table shows that the areas of largest growth are expected to be in the Health Care and Social Assistance, Private Household Workers, Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, and Wholesale Trade industries with the areas of lowest growth projected to be in Management of Morgan Hills Wind Energy Project July 2011

5 Companies and Enterprises and Finance and Insurance. In addition, employment in the Farm industry is expected to decrease by 1.6 percent (1.6%) Regulatory Setting State Local California Housing Element Law The California Housing Element Law, enacted in 1969, is implemented by the California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD), one (1) of 13 departments within the California Business, Transportation and Housing Agency. The HCD is responsible for reviewing local government housing elements for compliance with State law and providing written comments to the local government. Using the information provided by local government in its housing element, the HCD determines the regional housing need for each county and allocates funding to meet this need to the council of governments for distribution to its jurisdictions. The HCD also oversees distribution of the regional housing need by the council of governments to the local governments to ensure that funds are appropriately allocated. Kern County General Plan (KCGP), Revised September 2009 The policies, goals, and implementation measures in the KCGP for population and housing applicable to the Project are provided below. The KCGP contains additional policies, goals, and implementation measures that are more general in nature and not specific to development such as the Project. Therefore, they are not listed below, but, as stated in Chapter 2, Introduction, all policies, goals, and implementation measures in the KCGP are incorporated by reference. Chapter 1. Land Use, Open Space, and Conservation Element 1.0 General Provisions Goals Goal 1. Ensure that the County can accommodate anticipated future growth and development while maintaining a safe and healthful environment and a prosperous economy by preserving viable natural resources, guiding development away from hazardous areas, and assuring the provision of adequate public services. Policies Policy 6. The County shall ensure the fair treatment of people of all races, cultures, incomes and age groups with respect to the development, adoption, implementation and enforcement of land use and environmental programs. Policy 7. In administering land use and environmental programs, the County shall not deny any individual or group the enjoyment of the use of land due to race, sex, color, religion, ethnicity, national origin, ancestry, lawful occupation or age. Policy 8. The County shall ensure that new industrial uses and activities are sited to avoid or minimize significant hazards to human health and safety in a manner that avoids over concentrating such uses in proximity to schools and residents. Morgan Hills Wind Energy Project July 2011

6 Implementation Measures Implementation Measure A. The Kern Council of Governments (COG) will monitor population growth and its subsequent development effects to identify the distribution of population increases and the capabilities of governmental and public agencies to provide new development with adequate services and facilities in a fiscally acceptable manner. 1.6 Residential Goals Goal 2. Ensure the provision of safe and amenable living environments and the promotion of efficient and economical use of land. Goal 3. Discourage scattered urban density development within Kern County that is not supported by adequate infrastructure. Goal 7. Minimize land use conflicts between residential and resource, commercial, or industrial land uses. Policies Policy 3. The owners of individually residentially zoned lots of record will, in any event, retain the right to develop a housing unit structure regardless of the General Plan designation, provided County development ordinance criteria are met. Policy 5. Discourage premature urban encroachment into areas of intense agriculture areas. Policy 9. Development in areas without adequate infrastructure or development that places a burden on public services (i.e., fire, sheriff, parks, and libraries) shall be discouraged. Implementation Measures Implementation Measure A. All General Plan Amendments, zone changes, conditional use permits, discretionary residential developments of five or more dwelling units, and variations from height limits established by zoning for properties which are located in the Airport Influence Areas or near a military airport shall be reviewed by the Planning Department for compatibility with the Kern County Airport Land Use Compatibility Plan. Implementation Measure G. Discretionary project applicants shall provide documentation of adequate public infrastructure and services which include, but are not limited to: 1. Fire protection. 2. Police protection. 3. Sewage disposal. 4. Water service including quality and quantity. 5. Documentation that water conservation measures have been considered. Implementation Measure I. Discretionary projects located within a Moderate, High, or Extreme Fire Hazard Zone shall abide by building materials and construction requirements set forth by the Kern County Fire Department and Office of Emergency Services. Morgan Hills Wind Energy Project July 2011

7 Kern County General Plan, Housing Element , Adopted 2008 The housing element is a separate element of the KCGP. Each city and county is required by California housing law to develop a housing element, one of the seven (7) general plan elements, in order to qualify for allocation of State regional housing funding. To receive regional housing funds, each city and county must update its General Plan housing element on a regular basis (generally, every five years). The housing element must incorporate policies and identify potential sites that would accommodate the city or county s share of the regional housing needs. Kern County adopted the current housing element in December Because the Project would not include new housing, the goals and policies of the housing element largely do not apply to the Project. Kern Council of Governments (COG) A COG acts as an area-wide planning agency. COGs assist local governments with multijurisdictional issues such as air quality, transportation, water quality, energy, and housing. The Kern COG serves this purpose for Kern County. The primary function of the Kern COG is to address regional transportation issues, but it also functions as the State-designated Census Data Center Affiliate. The Kern COG and its member agencies include the and the 11 incorporated cities within Kern County (KCOG, 2011). The Kern COG facilitates comprehensive planning and intergovernmental coordination. Under California housing law, the HCD is responsible for estimating the relative share of California s projected population growth that would occur in each county in the State based on DOF population projections and historical growth trends. Based upon the projected growth in the number of households in Kern County between 2008 and 2013, the HCD calculated the number of additional units that need to be available during that period. In turn, the Kern COG is required by State law to determine the portion of funding for regional housing to be allocated to each jurisdiction within the region. To do this, the Kern COG developed a Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA) for the period between 2006 and The plan addresses all housing needs for all income levels in the Kern region. Need is based on available census data, market demand for housing, employment opportunities, the availability of suitable sites, public facilities, commuting patterns, and population projections. Future housing needs refer to the projected amount of housing a community is required to plan for during a specified planning period. The RHNA supports communities in anticipating growth so that they can grow in a way that enhances quality of life; improves access to jobs, transportation, and housing; and avoids adversely affecting the environment. Each of the local governments has an opportunity to comment on the allocations proposed by the Kern COG (KCOG 2008). The Kern COG is required to assign regional housing shares to the cities within its region on a similar five- (5-) year schedule. The shares of the regional need are allocated before the end of the cycle so that the cities and counties can amend their housing elements by the deadline. The Kern COG has determined the additional housing construction needed by 2013 is 42,640 for the entire County, and 8,586 units for unincorporated areas of the County. Kern County Ordinance (Title 19), Revised March 2009 The Wind Energy (WE) Combining District (Chapter 19.64) contains development standards and conditions (Section ) that would be applicable to the siting and operation of wind turbine Morgan Hills Wind Energy Project July 2011

8 generators. None of the provisions of Chapter apply to population and housing issues related to the Project Impacts and Mitigation Measures Methodology Population, housing, and employment in the area were evaluated by reviewing the most current data available from the U.S. Census Bureau, the California DOF, the KCGP, the Kern Economic Development Strategy, the 2007 RHNA, and the Kern COG. Thresholds of Significance The Kern County California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) Implementation Document and Kern County Environmental Checklist state that a project would have a significant impact on population and housing if it would: Induce substantial population growth in an area, either directly (for example, by proposing new homes and businesses) or indirectly (for example, through extension of roads or other infrastructure); Displace substantial numbers of existing housing, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere; or Displace substantial numbers of people, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere. As discussed in Appendix A (Notice of Preparation/Initial Study [NOP/IS]), the Project was determined to have no impact with regard to the following impact threshold: Induce substantial population growth in an area, either directly (for example, by proposing new homes and businesses) or indirectly (for example, through extension of roads or other infrastructure). This issue is not discussed further in this EIR. Project Impacts Impact : Displace Substantial Numbers of Existing Housing, Necessitating the Construction of Replacement Housing Elsewhere There are nine (9) residences located within one (1) mile of the Project site. The Project would not require the removal or displacement of these structures or their inhabitants. Since no housing would be displaced, the Project would not require construction of replacement housing elsewhere. Therefore, the impact would be less than significant. Mitigation Measures The Project would comply with the goals, policies, and implementation measures of the KCGP. No mitigation measures are required. Level of Significance Impacts would be less than significant. Morgan Hills Wind Energy Project July 2011

9 Impact : Displace Substantial Numbers of People, Necessitating the Construction of Replacement Housing Elsewhere There are nine (9) residences located within one (1) mile of the Project site. The Project would not require the removal or displacement of these structures or their inhabitants. Since no housing would be displaced, the Project would not require construction of replacement housing elsewhere. Therefore, the impacts would be less than significant. Mitigation Measures The Project would comply with the goals, policies, and implementation measures of the KCGP. No mitigation measures are required. Level of Significance Impacts would be less than significant. Cumulative Setting Impacts and Mitigation Measures Cumulative Setting Cumulative impacts are two (2) or more individual impacts that, when considered together, are considerable or that compound or increase other environmental impacts. The geographic scope for cumulative impacts to population and housing includes past, present, and reasonably foreseeable projects located within 30 miles of the Project site. This geographic scope of analysis is appropriate because it is likely that any Project-related workers that would relocate as a result of the Project would relocate to the nearby unincorporated communities of Mojave, Willow Springs, and Rosamond, or Cities of California City, Tehachapi, Lancaster and/or Palmdale, all of which are located within 30 miles of the Project site. Impact : Contribute to Cumulative Population and Housing Impacts The Project is expected to create a small amount of jobs that can largely be filled by existing residents located within reasonable commuting distance and would therefore not contribute to substantial population growth and related demand for housing (Impact ). Similarly, the Project would not be expected to increase the development of any new permanent housing, businesses, or new infrastructure during construction or operation. Further, growth in the Kern County area has been accounted for in the local and regional plans cited above, and projections provided therein. Accordingly, less than significant impacts would occur due to the Project. Displacement of and demand for housing and changes in the local labor market and population would not be considered to be cumulative impacts of the Project (Impact ). The Project s impacts would not be cumulatively considerable. Further, each related project (see Chapter 3, Project Description), would be assessed for its potentially significant impacts (direct, indirect and cumulative) through the standard CEQA review process. Mitigation Measures No mitigation measures are required. Morgan Hills Wind Energy Project July 2011

10 Level of Significance Cumulative impacts would be less than significant. Morgan Hills Wind Energy Project July 2011