IAEA activities, methodology work and scenario studies

Transcription

1 IAEA activities, methodology work and scenario studies Aliki van Heek 3E Analysis Planning and Economic Studies Section (PESS) GIF-IAEA Interface meeting VIC, March 2018

2 Economics and market related activities at IAEA INPRO/PESS: NESA economics support tool (NEST) NPTDS/PESS: Deployment Indicators for Small Modular Reactors PESS: Nuclear Power and Climate Change Nuclear power and new energy markets Nuclear Cost Basis PESS represents IAEA as Member of GIF EMWG

3 UPDATE OF NESA ECONOMICS SUPPORT TOOL (NEST) NESA: Nuclear Energy System Assessment

4 UPDATE OF NESA ECONOMICS SUPPORT TOOL (NEST) Objective of this activity: to convert existing Excel version of NEST into a single computer tool comprising four separate modules modern user friendly interface NEST update implementation steps 4

5 Opening page of Excel version of NEST 5

6 Home page of NEST ver1 6

7 Input data 7

8 Output: LUEC and sensitivity diagram 8

9 NPTDS/PESS: Deployment Indicators for Small Modular Reactors Purpose: Identify country conditions generally favorable for using nuclear power, and broad indicators for deployment of SMRs

10 Categories and Indicators National Energy Demands SMR Energy Demands Financial/ Economic Sufficiency Physical Infrastructure Sufficiency Climate Change Motivation Energy Security Motivation Growth of Economic Activity Dispersed (Rural) Energy Ability to Support New Investments Electric Grid Capacity Reduce Fossil Fuel-Energy Consumption Reduce Energy Imports Growth Rate of Primary Energy Consumption Co- Generation Openness to International Trade Infrastructure Conditions Reduce CO 2 Emissions per Capita Utilize Domestic Uranium Resources Per Capita Energy Consumption Energy Intensive Industries Fitness for Investment Land Availability Achieve NDC Carbon Reduction Goals Balance Intermittent Renewables Indicators were selected that provide distinctive measures (avoiding duplication) 10

11 Key indicators for deploying SMRs Grid Compatibility Trans. losses, quality, remote locations, scaling Energy-Economics-Environment Growing market demand, energy stability and environment valued in prices Nuclear experience RR programs, country agreements (BOO-T) Energy Security and Reliability Import dependence, high reliability needed 11

12 PESS activities Nuclear Cost Basis Nuclear Power and Climate Change Nuclear power and new energy markets

13 Nuclear Power and Climate Change PESS led UN booth at COP23 Bonn 3 Side Events Energy Policy Trade-offs within the Broader Sustainable Development Challenge (joint UN Side Event) Connecting roadmaps for innovative nuclear energy to the NDC timeline Can Nuclear Power deliver on the Climate Change Mitigation needs? 2 brochure publications Nuclear Power for Sustainable Development Nuclear Power and Market Mechanisms under the Paris Agreement COP24, Katowice, Poland International Conference on Climate Change and the Role of Nuclear Power VIC, October

14 Nuclear power and new energy markets studies and publications in preparation Global Review of Integration of Renewable Generation in the Electricity Markets Disruptive Market Prospects for Advanced Nuclear Technologies Financing Nuclear Power in evolving electricity markets With NPTDS: Technical Meeting on Nuclear-Renewable Hybrid Energy Systems for Decarbonized Energy Production and Cogeneration, VIC, October

15 Nuclear Cost Basis Nuclear Cost Basis Report Methodologies Nuclear Cost Basis Canvas Nuclear Cost Database Technical Meeting on Nuclear Power Cost Estimation and Analysis Methodologies, VIC, April 2018 Characterizing the Broad Context Cost Breakdown Cost Projection Timeline & Cash Flow Profile Uncertainty Propagation Project Valuation Progress will be reported in EMWG Meetings feedback appreciated 15

16 Nuclear Cost Basis suggestion for discussion Study Cost Estimation with G4-ECONS for Generation IV Reactor Designs presented at GIF Symposium 2012 in San Diego Partially based on proprietary data Update the study with publicly available data Make study with data and G4-ECONS files available to GIF members / to the public Example results: Overnight construction costs Electricity generating costs 16

17 Thank you!