Current Status of Renewable Energy and Climate Change in the U.S.

Transcription

1 G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Denver, Colorado Current Status of Renewable Energy and Climate Change in the U.S. Energy Change Institute Open Day 2019 Australian National University Greg Wilson G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC 12 February, 2019

2 G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 2 Overview 1. Context for the talk. 2. Reducing CO 2 emissions and advancing renewable energy during the Trump years. 3. U.S. PV, wind and storage deployment updates. 4. Looking forward - H 2 and renewable fuels. 5. Closing thoughts.

3 G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 3 Overview 1. Context for the talk. 2. Reducing CO 2 emissions and advancing renewable energy during the Trump years. 3. U.S. PV, wind and storage deployment updates. 4. Looking forward - H 2 and renewable fuels. 5. Closing thoughts.

4 4 G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Earth Human Population 7.7 B Annual Electricity Demand = 25,700 TWh Annual Fossil CO 2 Emissions = 37.1 Gt Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration 405 ppm Rate of CO 2 Increase 2.5 ppm/year Slide 4

5 G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 5 Risk: Destabilization of Earth s Climate Source: Steffen et al, PNAS, 6JUL18.

6 G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 6 Context Challenges & Opportunities The energy transition and humanity s collective efforts to save our planet will fundamentally change our world over the next 50 years. These challenges will also create new industries and wealth creating opportunities for those that understand how to use science & technology to move humanity beyond the current crisis.

7 G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 7 Overview 1. Context for the talk. 2. Reducing CO 2 emissions and advancing renewable energy during the Trump years. 3. U.S. PV, wind and storage deployment updates. 4. Looking forward - H 2 and renewable fuels. 5. Closing thoughts.

8 Climate Change in the USA Wildfires Katia Irma José This picture was taken by the GOES-16 earth observation satellite and was posted on the Atlantic Monthly website on 12 September, The headline was When the Planet Looks Like a Climate-Change Ad hurricanes formed in rapid succession beginning in August causing over $320B in damages. Hurricane Irma - Cat 5, 185 mph for 3 days, destroyed the U.S. Virgin Islands. Hurricane Maria - Cat 5, 175 mph for 3 days, destroyed Puerto Rico and hit the USVI a second time. Wild land fires burned 10 million acres hurricanes, 2 were major. At one point, 4 were active at the same time. Hurricane Michael, a Cat 4, was the 3 rd strongest to hit the U.S. mainland. Wild land fires burned 8.6 million acres. The Camp fire destroyed the city of Paradise, California and killed 86 people. G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 8

9 G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 9 Fourth National Climate Assessment Excerpts from the Report Reducing net emissions of CO 2 is necessary to limit near-term climate change and long-term warming. This congressionally mandated report was published in June, 2017 and concludes that the world must take immediate action. The 2018 global CO 2 emission rate gives us a little over 6 years before we reach the 230 Gt limit. Stabilizing global mean temperature to less than 3.6 F (2 C) above preindustrial levels requires substantial reductions in net global CO 2 emissions prior to 2040 relative to present-day values. Given estimated cumulative emissions since 1870, no more than approximately 230 GtC may be emitted in the future to remain under this temperature threshold.

10 G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 10 Trump vs. Climate Change Realities The Trump administration has worked diligently to reverse the progress made during the Obama administration but their initiatives often fail because of lawsuits quickly moved through the U.S. court system and even actions of the U.S. Congress. Fortunately, the low cost of wind, PV and now energy storage is allowing deployments of RE to continue unabated. The actions of individual state governments and investor owned utilities are becoming significant.

11 G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 11 Most Aggressive RE State Policies Hawaii: House Bill 623 created a 100% RPS by California: SB100 created a state zero-carbon electricity goal of 100% by New Jersey: Executive Order calls for 100% RE by From NREL s Q3/Q Solar Industry Update David Feldman & Robert Margolis

12 G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 12 Other Signficant State RE Goals New York: 100% zero carbon electricity by 2040, 50% RE by Current RPS is 30% (by 2015). Connecticut: 100% RE by 2050, current RPS is 40% by Colorado: 100% RE by 2040, current RPS is 30% by Oregon: 100% RE by 2050, current RPS is 50% by New Mexico: 80% RE by 2040, current RPS is 20% by Nevada: 50% RE by 2030, current RPS is 25% by From NREL s Q3/Q Solar Industry Update David Feldman & Robert Margolis

13 G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 13 Xcel Energy Colorado 55% RE by 2026 In June of 2017, Xcel Energy Colorado unveiled a new power plan that the utility estimates could save customers $215 million, cut carbon emissions by half and lift renewable energy sources to 55% of its electricity portfolio by The plan includes retiring 660 megawatts of coal generation from the Commanche 1 and Commanche 2 plants in Pueblo and adding 1,100 megawatts of new wind capacity, 750 megawatts of solar generation and 380 megawatts of flexible gas sources. The utility also plans to add 275 MW (1000 MWh) of battery storage capacity.

14 G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 14 Hawaiian Electric 100% RE by 2045 A utility already moving aggressively to add RE to counter the high cost of generation from barge shipped fossil fuels, Hawaiian Electric recently announced the lowest PV + storage costs so far. The table below shows that PV with 4 hours of equivalent storage will come in at 8 /kwh.

15 G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 15 Largest U.S. Emissions Problem - Oil Globally, fossil fuels are the largest CO 2 emissions sources. In the U.S., renewable electricity with storage will further reduce emissions from coal and gas but oil consumption by the transportation and industrial sectors remains a formidable problem.

16 G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 16 Overview 1. Context for the talk. 2. Reducing CO 2 emissions and advancing renewable energy during the Trump years. 3. U.S. PV, wind and storage deployment updates. 4. Looking forward - H 2 and renewable fuels. 5. Closing thoughts.

17 U.S. Solar Resource Map G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 17

18 G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 18 Global PV Demand Forecast Global PV installations for 2018 are expected to range from 75 GW to 102 GW. The drop in Chinese installations is responsible for the year-overyear decrease. Still, China is expected to remain the largest PV market through From NREL s Q2/Q Solar Industry Update David Feldman & Robert Margolis From NREL s Q3/Q Solar Industry Update David Feldman & Robert Margolis

19 G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 19 U.S. PV Installations - 4.7GW in 1H18 Module Prices U.S. Tariffs Impact TRUMP Sources:Wood Mackenzie Power and Renewables/SEIA: U.S. Solar Market Insight Q From NREL s Q3/Q Solar Industry Update David Feldman & Robert Margolis PV Installations in the US have been impacted by Trump administration tariffs but quarterly deployments have still been relatively strong.

20 U.S. Solar Penetration The U.S. generated 2.1% of its total electricity demand from solar between July 2017 and June Previous 12 months was 1.6%. California generated 17.6% of its electricity from solar. States like VT and MA have made significant progress given their much poorer solar resource as compared to CA and other SW U.S. states. From NREL s Q2/Q Solar Industry Update David Feldman & Robert Margolis G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 20

21 G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 21 U.S. PV System Prices U.S. PV installed system price declines are slowing. System size is a major factor as utility scale system prices for 2018 are expected to be ~$1/W. From NREL s Q2/Q Solar Industry Update David Feldman & Robert Margolis

22 U.S. PV Generation Costs Utility scale PV generation costs are now approaching 2 /kwh. Note that the DOE s 2020 SunShot target is 6 /kwh. From NREL s Q2/Q Solar Industry Update David Feldman & Robert Margolis G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 22

23 U.S. PV Generation Costs From NREL s Q Solar Industry Update Robert Margolis et al. Utility scale PV generation costs are now approaching 2 /kwh. Note that the DOE s 2020 SunShot target is 6 /kwh. Utility scale PPA pricing has fallen by roughly 10x in the last 10 years. G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 23

24 U.S. Wind Resource Map G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 24

25 G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 25 U.S. Wind Installations 7 GW in 2017 From LBNL s 2017 Wind Technologies Market Report Ryan Wiser & Mark Bolinger

26 G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 26 U.S. Wind Installations & Forecast From LBNL s 2017 Wind Technologies Market Report Ryan Wiser & Mark Bolinger

27 G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 27 U.S. Land-Based Wind Turbine Trends From LBNL s 2017 Wind Technologies Market Report Ryan Wiser & Mark Bolinger

28 G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 28 Wind Capacity Factor Trends by Region From LBNL s 2017 Wind Technologies Market Report Ryan Wiser & Mark Bolinger

29 Wind Generation Costs As with utility scale PV, wind generation costs are now approaching 2 /kwh. Wind PPA prices are now lower than the projected cost of gas combined cycle plants. From LBNL s 2017 Wind Technologies Market Report Ryan Wiser & Mark Bolinger G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 29

30 G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 30 Energy Storage State Level Mandates From NREL s Q3/Q Solar Industry Update David Feldman & Robert Margolis Energy storage deployments in the U.S. are growing rapidly. Nearly all are PV + Li ion storage. Note the plan for 275 MW of Li ion storage by Xcel Energy in Colorado. Also note the low PV + storage PPA prices that have been achieved in Hawaii, 8 /kwh.

31 G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 31 Overview 1. Context for the talk. 2. Reducing CO 2 emissions and advancing renewable energy during the Trump years. 3. U.S. PV, wind and storage deployment updates. 4. Looking forward - H 2 and renewable fuels. 5. Closing thoughts.

32 G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 32 U.S. DOE s H2@Scale Project From B. Pivovar, N. Rustagi & S. Satyapal, Electrochem. Soc. Interface Spring 2018

33 G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 33 - Cost Projection From B. Pivovar, N. Rustagi & S. Satyapal, Electrochem. Soc. Interface Spring 2018

34 G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 34 Overview 1. Context for the talk. 2. Reducing CO 2 emissions and advancing renewable energy during the Trump years. 3. U.S. PV, wind and storage deployment updates. 4. Looking forward - H 2 and renewable fuels. 5. Closing thoughts.

35 Closing Thoughts A warming climate is increasingly acknowledged as a threat to many Americans thanks to increasingly common catastrophic storms and wild land fires. Major news outlets are also doing more to educate the public. Over the last 2 years, the U.S. has made progress in reducing carbon emissions from the power sector largely through continued progress in deploying renewable energy. Leadership has moved to individual states (CA in particular) but also public utilities, corporations and non-profits. The U.S. still faces major challenges in reducing fossil fuel emissions from the transport and industrial sectors. G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Slide 35

36 Thank You G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC G. M. Wilson Consulting, LLC Phone: Slide