POTENTIAL WITH-Conservation Measure 2. Presentation to the Yolo Bypass Fishery Enhancement Planning Team August 25, 2011

Transcription

1 EXISTING HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS and POTENTIAL WITH-Conservation Measure 2 HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS IN YOLO BYPASS M i Ki kl d DWR Marianne Kirkland, DWR Presentation to the Yolo Bypass Fishery Enhancement Planning Team August 25, 2011

2 When has Fremont Weir Spilled? Source: Fact Sheet, Sacramento River Flood Control Project Weirs and Flood Relief Structures DRAFT October 2008, DWR Flood Operations Branch

3 Typical number of Fremont Weir overtopping events per year 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% No FW eve ents One or more Two or more Thre e or mo ore Fou ur or mo ore Five or more Derived From: Fact Sheet, Sacramento River Flood Control Project Weirs and Flood Relief Structures DRAFT October 2008, DWR Flood Operations Branch (WY )

4 Ends of final Fremont Weir overtopping events 33% 28% No FW Overtopping March or Earlier 39% April or r Derived From: Fact Sheet, Sacramento River Flood Control Project Weirs and Flood Relief Structures DRAFT October 2008, DWR Flood Operations Branch (WY )

5 Ends of final Fremont Weir overtopping events 64% 28% No FW Overtopping 8% Overtopping Ends by Feb 15 Overtopping Ends post Feb 15 Derived From: Fact Sheet, Sacramento River Flood Control Project Weirs and Flood Relief Structures DRAFT October 2008, DWR Flood Operations Branch (WY )

6 Likelihood of Some Fremont Weir overtopping by Half-Month 100% Historical 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May June June WY Stats Derived From Fact Sheet, Sacramento River Flood Control System Weirs and Flood Relief Structures, DWR CDEC data from FRE

7 Are there patterns by Water Year? Source: California Data Exchange Center,

8 Sac Valley Water Year Index Equation SV Water Year Index (Million Acre Feet) =.4 x Current April to July Runoff Forecast +.3 x Current October to March Forecast +.3 x Previous Water Year Index* *(Maximum Prior Year Index of 10 used) Source: California Data Exchange Center,

9 Sac Valley Water Year Classifications Wet (W) Above Normal (AN) 7.8 to 9.2 Below Normal (BN) 6.5 to 7.8 Dry (D) 5.4 to 6.5 Critical (C) 5.4 Year types are set by first of month forecasts, beginning in February. Final determination is made in May based on 50% exceedence forecast Source: California Data Exchange Center,

10 Distribution of Water Years in Long-Term Record 11% 35% Critical 20% Dry Below Normal Above Normal Wet 15% 20% Derived From: Fact Sheet, Sacramento River Flood Control Project Weirs and Flood Relief Structures DRAFT October 2008, DWR Flood Operations Branch (WY )

11 Typical maximum duration by water year Critical Years Derived From: Fact Sheet, Sacramento River Flood Control Project Weirs and Flood Relief Structures DRAFT October 2008, DWR Flood Operations Branch (WY )

12 Typical maximum duration by water year Dry Years Derived From: Fact Sheet, Sacramento River Flood Control Project Weirs and Flood Relief Structures DRAFT October 2008, DWR Flood Operations Branch (WY )

13 Typical maximum duration by water year Below Normal Years Derived From: Fact Sheet, Sacramento River Flood Control Project Weirs and Flood Relief Structures DRAFT October 2008, DWR Flood Operations Branch (WY )

14 Typical maximum duration by water year Above Normal Years Derived From: Fact Sheet, Sacramento River Flood Control Project Weirs and Flood Relief Structures DRAFT October 2008, DWR Flood Operations Branch (WY )

15 Typical maximum duration by water year Wet Years Derived From: Fact Sheet, Sacramento River Flood Control Project Weirs and Flood Relief Structures DRAFT October 2008, DWR Flood Operations Branch (WY )

16 POTENTIAL With-Conservation Measure 2 CONDITIONS

17 Examples: Hydrology in Recent Crop Year Record Yolo Bypass Crop Focal Years Water Year Type What Happened Max May FW FW Overflow FW Max YBY Dropped to Overflow Overflow (cfs) flow (cfs) 6,000 cfs Ended YBY Flow Dropped to 1,000 cfs What Might Have Happened with CM AN notch flow prior to late late event weir overtopping event 44,000 May 24 May 25 only prevents planting that was later wiped out? months of connection of 2006 W intermittent intermittent events, 9 day 25,000 May 4 May 6 events extension of FW flow (Dec May) through notch 2007 D No FW Overflow 2,100 Feb 17 added intermittent notch flows between December and March? 2008 C No FW Overflow added intermittent notch 6,300 Mar 7 flows between December (January) and March? added intermittent notch 2009 D No FW Overflow 2,700 Mar 11 flows between December and March?

18 Draft Tech Memo 2 Assumptions Source: Technical Study #2 North Delta Migration Corridors v10 (FINAL DRAFT).DOC

19 Draft Tech Memo 2 Results Source: Technical Study #2 North Delta Migration Corridors v10 (FINAL DRAFT).DOC

20 Historical Distribution of Years 33% 28% No Fremont Weir Overtopping Final Fremont Weir Overtopping Ends by March 31 39% Final Fremont Weir Overtopping Ends April 1 or r Derived From Fact Sheet, Sacramento River Flood Control System Weirs and Flood Relief Structures, DWR CDEC data from FRE

21 Historical Distribution of Years 20% No Fremont Weir 12% Overtopping 39% 28% Final Fremont Weir Overtopping Ends by March 31 Final Fremont Weir Overtopping Ends April 1 to May 15 Final Fremont Weir Overtopping Ends May 16 or r Derived From Fact Sheet, Sacramento River Flood Control System Weirs and Flood Relief Structures, DWR CDEC data from FRE

22 Potential With-Project Conditions Tech Memo 2 Fig gs % 10% 5% No FW Overtop and no Notch Flow No FW Overtop and Notch Flow 12% ends by Mar 31 No FW Overtop and Notch Flow ends April 1 or r 20% 9% 3% Final FW Overtop ends by Mar 31 and so does Notch Flow Final FW Overtop ends by Mar 31 and Notch ends April 1 or r Final FW Overtop ends April 1 or r and Notch ends first Final FW Overtop ends April 1 or r and Notch ends 30% afterward Final Fremont Weir Overtopping Ends May 16 or r Estimates based on From Fact Sheet, Sacramento River Flood Control System Weirs and Flood Relief Structures, DWR CDEC data from FRE Tech Memo 2 version 10, April 2009

23 Blips = Very Short Events Source: Technical Study #2 North Delta Migration Corridors v10 (FINAL DRAFT).DOC

24 Tools for Real-Time Management Weather Forecasting Flow Forecasting Existing Gauge Relationships e.g. YBY gauge at I-80 to LIS gauge at Lisbon Weir New Monitoring i Information More Operable Facilities within the Bypass e.g. Lisbon Weir

25 Potential With-Project Conditions No FW Overtop and no Notch Flow o bli ps TM 2 Fs N 10% 10% 12% 17% 17% 8% 3% No FW Overtop and Notch Flow ends by Mar 31 No FW Overtop and Notch Flow ends April 1 or r Final FW Overtop ends by Mar 31 and so does Notch Flow Final FW Overtop ends by Mar 31 and Notch ends April 1 or r Final FW Overtop ends April 1 or r and Notch ends first Final FW Overtop ends April 1 or 22% r and Notch ends afterward Final Fremont Weir Overtopping Ends May 16 or r Estimates based on Fact Sheet, Sacramento River Flood Control System Weirs and Flood Relief Structures, DWR CDEC data from FRE & Tech Memo 2 version 10, April 2009

26 Potential With-Project Conditions days only 2 Fs % 10% No FW Overtop and no Notch Flow No FW Overtop and Notch Flow 12% ends by Mar 31 25% 0% 3% No FW Overtop and Notch Flow ends April 1 or r FW Overtop ends by Mar 31 and so does Notch Flow FW Overtop ends by Mar 31 and Notch ends April 1 or r FW Overtop ends April 1 or r 17% and Notch ends first FW Overtop ends April 1 or r 22% and Notch ends afterward Final Fremont Weir Overtopping Ends May 16 or r TM Estimates based on Fact Sheet, Sacramento River Flood Control System Weirs and Flood Relief Structures, DWR CDEC data from FRE & Tech Memo 2 version 10, April 2009

27 Potential With-Project Conditions Hist St tage & TM2 Curv ve 0% 20% 5% No FW Overtop and no Notch Flow No FW Overtop and Notch Flow 12% ends by Mar 31 28% 23% 11% 0% No FW Overtop and Notch Flow ends April 1 or r FW Overtop ends by Mar 31 and so does Notch Flow FW Overtop ends by Mar 31 and Notch ends April 1 or r FW Overtop ends April 1 or r and Notch ends first FW Overtop ends April 1 or r and Notch ends afterward Final Fremont Weir Overtopping Ends May 16 or r Estimates based on Fact Sheet, Sacramento River Flood Control System Weirs and Flood Relief Structures, DWR CDEC data from FRE & Tech Memo 2 version 10, April 2009 & Historical Stage

28 Potential With-Project Conditions Hist Stage & TM M2, 7 day min 0% 20% 12% 6% y 26% 22% 13% 0% No FW Overtop and no Notch Flow No FW Overtop and Notch Flow ends by Mar 31 No FW Overtop and Notch Flow ends April 1 or r FW Overtop ends by Mar 31 and so does Notch Flow FW Overtop ends by Mar 31 and Notch ends April 1 or r FW Overtop ends April 1 or r and Notch ends first FW Overtop ends April 1 or r and Notch ends afterward Final Fremont Weir Overtopping Ends May 16 or r Estimates based on Fact Sheet, Sacramento River Flood Control System Weirs and Flood Relief Structures, DWR CDEC data from FRE & Tech Memo 2 version 10, April 2009 & Historical Stage

29 Potential With-Project Conditions day d M2, 7 if 30 eache e & TM early ady re Stage Quit e alrea Hist min, days No FW Overtop and no Notch Flow 4% 12% 6% y 16% 7% 22% 0% No FW Overtop and Notch Flow ends by Mar 31 No FW Overtop and Notch Flow ends April 1 or r FW Overtop ends by Mar 31 and so does Notch Flow FW Overtop ends by Mar 31 and Notch ends April 1 or r FW Overtop ends April 1 or r and Notch ends first FW Overtop ends April 1 or 32% r and Notch ends afterward Final Fremont Weir Overtopping Ends May 16 or r Estimates based on Fact Sheet, Sacramento River Flood Control System Weirs and Flood Relief Structures, DWR CDEC data from FRE & Tech Memo 2 version 10, April 2009 & Historical Stage

30 Potential With-Project Conditions Historical Potential With Project based on analyses to date Source for Estimation Fremont Within gross 28%/39%/33% overtopping split, notch frequency applied Long Term Weir Notch Flow Historical historical historical historical stage, TM2 TM2, Overtopping TM2 Average from stage from stage, 7 day 7 day+ only, end Excluding 30+ day Including DFM Graphic Central or longer ops early if 30+days very short events Blips District only attained earlier Blips only Percent of Flow Threshold Analyzed years 1,000 cfs 1,000 cfs 1,000 cfs 3,000 cfs 3,000 cfs 3,000 cfs None 5% 6% 6% 5% 17% 25% Ending by March 31 23% 22% 22% 20% 8% 0% None 28% Extending April 1 or 0% 0% 0% 3% 3% 3% r Ending by March 31 11% 13% 32% 9% 17% 17% Ending by Ending bt between 39% March 31 28% 26% 7% 30% 22% 22% April 1 and May 15 Ending Ending before FW 0% 0% 16% 10% 10% 10% between overtopping does 20% April 1 and Ends after FW 20% 20% 4% 10% 10% 10% May 15 overtopping does Ending May 16 or r Fish Passage Flow Only 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% Estimates based on Fact Sheet, Sacramento River Flood Control System Weirs and Flood Relief Structures, DWR CDEC data from FRE & Tech Memo 2 version 10, April 2009 & Historical Fremont Weir stage

31 Potential With-Project Conditions Fremont Weir Overtopping Notch Flow Historical Long Term Historical Average from DFM Graphic: Percent of years Potential With Project based on analyses to date Source for Estimation Within LTA gross 28%/39%/33% split, notch frequency applied historical stage from Cdist historical stage, 7 day or longer ops only historical stage, 7 day or longer ops only, end early if 30+days attained earlier TM 2 Including Blips TM 2 Excluding very short Blips TM2, 30+ day events only Flow Threshold Analyzed 1,000 cfs 1,000 cfs 1,000 cfs 3,000 cfs 3,000 cfs 3,000 cfs % of years with no Fremont Weir flow at all 28% 5% 6% 6% 5% 17% 25% % of years with all Fremont Weir flow (weir overtopping or floodplain 39% 34% 35% 54% 29% 25% 17% inundation notch) ending by Mar 31 % of years with some Fremont Weir flow (weir overtopping or floodplain 20% 48% 46% 27% 53% 45% 45% inundation notch) April 1 to May 15 % of years with Fremont Weir overtopping May 16 or later 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% Estimates based on Fact Sheet, Sacramento River Flood Control System Weirs and Flood Relief Structures, DWR CDEC data from FRE & Tech Memo 2 version 10, April 2009 & Historical Fremont Weir stage

32 Likelihood of Some Fremont Weir overtopping by Half-Month 100% Historical 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May June June WY Stats Derived From Fact Sheet, Sacramento River Flood Control System Weirs and Flood Relief Structures, DWR CDEC data from FRE

33 Potential New Likelihood of Some Fremont Weir Flow by Half-Month 100% 90% Estimated High Notch Ops Envelope 80% Estimated Low Notch Ops Envelope 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Historical Fremont Weir Overtopping 0% Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May June June Estimated from Fact Sheet, Sacramento River Flood Control System Weirs and Flood Relief Structures, DWR CDEC data from FRE & historical stage & TM2 analyses, with r values elevated in late November to meet goal of capturing juvenile Winter Run that emigrate with 400cms (1400 cfs) Sac River pulses

34 Take Home Messages Presented estimations show ballpark of proposed operations based on analysis to date Eti Estimations relied on historical i hydrology CALSIM results also worth examining We have some tools for real time management and we ll have more when the project is in place Focus on operational goals while we work to better understand functional relationships