Presentation Overview

Transcription

1 Community Scale Energy and Emissions Modelling: Modelling 101 Union of British Columbia Municipalities Clinic 28 September 2011 Nicole Miller Presentation Overview Context Key Questions Typical Practices in BC Modelling Concepts and Definitions 1

2 The BC Context BC Legislation: Local Government Act Climate Action Charter Commitment to work towards more compact, complete and energy efficient communities, and requirement to include GHG reduction targets, policies and actions in OCPs and RGSs Key Questions Local governments are asking many questions relating to climate change policy: What are the key sources of our community emissions? (baseline) What emissions reductions targets should we set and work to achieve? (target setting) What impacts will potential policies have on our community emissions? Land use? Urban form? Renewable energy options? Budget? (policy analysis) Are we achieving what we expect over time? (monitoring) 2

3 The BC Context Many communities completing CEEPs and other climate change planning documents Increasing use of models to answer key planning questions and inform planning processes Many resources available to communities of all types, sizes, urban and rural different models, scopes, data and assumptions Knowing the potential of available tools is important! What s Happening in BC? Tools/Projects In Use in BC: GHGProof (Sustainability Solutions Group) Low Carbon Path (HB Lanarc) E2 (Stantec) Climate Action Navigator (C2MP) CEEP-QuickStart (BC Hydro Power Smart) Cool Tool (Pembina Institute) CIMS Community (MKJAssociates, SFU) SCEC3 (Natural Resources Canada) Various projects at UBC (CALP, UBC-DCS, SCARP) Others (MetroQuest, CUI, CommunityViz, EAAnalytics ) 3

4 What s Happening in BC? Recent Survey of Modelling Practitioners: Primarily using Excel-based tools, many also using GIS Mix of spatial and non-spatial (tabular) approaches Mix of measured and modelled data Mix of scales considered: parcel, neighbourhood, city Mix of issues considered: land use, buildings, transportation, renewable energy, district energy Advancements including the development of open-source tools, new information sources more on the way Measured and Modelled Data Measured Data: Data gathered from real world sources (empirical) Only available for existing conditions Useful for model calibration Modelled Data: Data outputs from a model Dependent on quality of inputs and assumptions Reflects some but not all factors occurring in real world Image: City of Vancouver 4

5 Model Assumptions Assumptions: Factors or relationships included in model Used when data is insufficient, unknown for the future, or to simplify model Often based on empirical evidence, averages, or assumed future conditions Influence model outcomes 60 GJ per unit 30 GJ per unit 15 GJ per unit Hea2ng Energy per Unit (based on BC Hydro CPR, 2007) Scenarios Baselines: Represent current conditions Important for comparison against targets Ideally modelled in same way as future scenarios so that results are comparable Future Scenarios: Represent alternative pathways Incorporate a variety of issues, projections and assumptions Internally consistent BAU is a future scenario representing business as usual practices Image: UBC Design Centre for Sustainability 5

6 Multiple and Nested Models Modelling community energy and GHGs involves the consideration of multiple issues Different data sources, different methods of analysis, different tools available Modelling often requires the use of multiple or nested models Models can be linked using tools such as Excel and GIS databases Image: NRCan Typical Practices Baseline Data and Inputs CEEI data Baseline scenario creation, model calibration, industrial data Community data Municipal, census and BC Assessment data for population, employment, building types, transportation infrastructure, etc. 6

7 Typical Practices Buildings Building archetypes Existing and new building types Energy profiles Utility data, building energy simulation (e.g. HOT2000, NRCan Screening Tool), national databases, CEEI data Image: UBC CALP Future scenarios Add or change archetypes based on new development assumptions, building replacement rates, retrofit rates Add or change energy profiles based on assumed changes in building energy performance or energy sources Image: NRCan Typical Practices Transportation Simplified assessment methods Account mainly for effects of urban design choices, assumptions based on trip diaries, CEEI, travel surveys, case studies Analogy-based methods Estimating travel behaviour based on shared characteristics Image: City of North Vancouver 7

8 Typical Practices Renewable Energy Varied approaches Basic measures, opportunity analysis, nested tools Analysis Tools RETScreen or similar tools used for solar hot water, geoexchange, photovoltaics, wind, etc., often for illustrative example District Energy Energy or development density measures Energy Mapping Spatial identification of areas with suitable conditions for various technologies Typical Practices Cost Energy prices Typically based on current utility rates, future pricing may or may not be included Capital costs Fewer models are including capital costs recognized area of interest for local governments 8

9 Summary Models provide an understanding of the relationships between policy decisions and energy/ghg emissions Models rely on good data, assumptions, methods and local knowledge to achieve best possible results Image: UBC Design Centre for Sustainability Summary Models are continuing to improve support from government, shared experiences Knowing the potentials of available tools is important for getting the most out of planning processes Image: UBC Design Centre for Sustainability 9

10 Summary Resources: 2007 CEEI Reports index.html Climate Action Toolkit Modeling Information Climate Action Toolkit Funding Information BC Hydro Power Smart Sustainable Communities Program Climate Action Revenue Incentive Program Thank you Questions? Nicole Miller 10