Energy Historical Trends in ASEAN+3

Transcription

1 The 15 th ASEAN+3 Energy Security Forum March, 218 Energy Historical Trends in ASEAN+3 Ryo Eto The Institute of Energy Economics, JAPAN (IEEJ)

2 Contents Introduction Overview of economic, energy situations Final energy consumption, power generation mix Energy self-sufficiency, energy and carbon intensity Key findings All Rights reserved IEEJ 2

3 Introduction This presentation shows the path of energy demand and supply situations in ASEAN+3 between 199 and 215. ASEAN+3 countries have generally achieved stable economic growth over the period, and have faced the rapid growth of energy demand. In terms of energy, identifying some common challenges in this region is crucial for the further sustainable economic growth. All Rights reserved IEEJ 3

4 GDP and Population 6, 6, (billion 21US$) (billion 21US$) (million person) 9, 9, 8, $77.6 tril. 8, (billion 21US$) (million person) 7, 7, 5.3 bil. 7.4 bil. 6, 6, 5, 5, 4, $37.9 tril. 4, 3, 3, 2.2 bil. 2, 1.7 bil. 2, 1, $19.5 tril. 1, $6.6 tril GDP (World) GDP Population (ASEAN+3) (World) Population Population (World) (ASEAN+3) Population (ASEAN+3) AAGR* ( ) 1.3% 2.8%.9% 4.2% 2, 2, AAGR*: Average Annual Growth Rate (Source : World Bank) GDP per capita in ASEAN+3 rose 2.3 fold in the 26 years compared with the world of 1.4 fold. All Rights reserved IEEJ 4

5 Total Primary energy Supply TPES in ASEAN+3 has performed substantial increase from 2. Share in the world: 19% (199) 32% (215). Coal accounts for 62% of the total increase. But recently its remains at a standstill. (Mtoe) 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1,638 Mtoe (Mtoe 1,655 Increment from 199 to AAGR (199-2) 3.1% 348 Coal Oil Gas AAGR (2-215) 4.5% 4,37 Mtoe Others Renewable (exc. Hydro) Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal (Source : IEA, IEEJ) All Rights reserved IEEJ 5

6 CO 2 emissions ASEAN+3 : 4.GtCO 2 in 199 (share in the world: 19%) to 12.4GtCO 2 in 215 (38%) : above the TPES share of 32% in 215. Still highly depending on fossil fuels leads to the substantial increase. (Gt-CO2) World ASEAN (Source : IEA,IEEJ) All Rights reserved IEEJ 6

7 Final energy consumption by sector The FEC growth has accelerated since the early 2. About half of the increase was from Industry sector which increased 3.-fold. (Mtoe) 818 (Mtoe) 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1,182 Mtoe 13% 45% 34% Industry 245 AAGR (199-2) 2.5% 373 Residential, Transport Commercial, etc. 197 Non-energy AAGR (2-215) 4.5% 2,816 Mtoe 19% 28% 43% Non-energy Transport Residential, Commercial, etc. Industry (Source : IEA, IEEJ) All Rights reserved IEEJ 7

8 Final energy consumption by source 34% of the increase derived from Oil and 3% from Electricity. AAGR during of natural gas has been 7.4% however, the share is still small. (Mtoe) 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 3% 1, 1% 5 (Mtoe) 1,182 Mtoe 34% 25% 414 Increment from 199 to Coal Oil Gas Electricity 2,816 Mtoe Biomass Renewable (exc. Biomass) Heat Electricity (Source : IEA, IEEJ) All Rights reserved IEEJ 8 22% 33% 27% 11% Gas Oil Coal

9 brunei Cambodia China Indonesia Japan Korea Lao Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam FEC Composition by energy & country 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Others Biomass Heat Elec. Gas Oil Coal 1% % (Source : IEA,IEEJ) All Rights reserved IEEJ 9

10 Power generation mix Coal Hydro Gas Renewable (exc. Hydro) Nuclear Oil Generation AAGR has been 6.4% and the amount increased 4.7 fold during Coal met 69% of the increase, 16% from Hydro, and 13% from Natural gas. (TWh) 9, 8, 7, 6, (TWh) 4,368 1, AAGR (2-215) 6.8% 8,33 TWh Others Renewable (exc. Hydro) Hydro 5, 4, 3, 2, 1,754 TWh AAGR (199-2) 5.9% Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 1, (Source : IEA,IEEJ) All Rights reserved IEEJ 1

11 Power generation mix by country brunei Cambodia China Indonesia Japan Korea Lao Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Biomass, Others Renewable (exc. Hydro) Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal % (Source : IEA,IEEJ) All Rights reserved IEEJ 11

12 Self-sufficiency in Coal Self-sufficiency rate in Coal has improved by the early 21. Production has increased with AAGR 5.7%, and demand expanded with AAGR 5.2% during % 8% Self-sufficiency ratio 85% 94% (Mtoe) 2,5 2, 6% 4% 1,5 1, Production Demand 2% 5 % (Source : IEA,IEEJ) All Rights reserved IEEJ 12

13 Self-sufficiency in Oil Self-sufficiency rate in Oil has been decreasing: 51% in 199 to 32% in 215. Demand has steadily increased with AAGR 2.9% during , while the production is stable (AAGR 1.% ). 1% Self-sufficiency ratio (Mtoe) 1,2 8% 1, 6% 4% 51% 32% Production Demand 2% 2 % (Source : IEA,IEEJ) All Rights reserved IEEJ 13

14 Self-sufficiency in Natural gas Self-sufficiency rate in Natural Gas dropped from 96% in 199 to 69% in 215. Production has increased with AAGR 5.1%, but demand growth much stronger (AAGR 6.5%). 1% 8% Self-sufficiency ratio 96% 69% (Mtoe) % 4% 2% Production Demand % (Source : IEA,IEEJ) All Rights reserved IEEJ 14

15 Brunei Cambodia China Indonesia Japan Korea Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Average (1995) Energy intensity Energy Intensity, (TPES / GDP) has improved in most of the countries of ASEAN+3. However, average Energy Intensity of total ASEAN+3 is unchanged. 15 (toe/million 21 US$) (Source : Calculated by IEEJ) All Rights reserved IEEJ 15

16 Brunei Cambodia China Indonesia Japan Korea Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Average (1995) Carbon Intensity Carbon Intensity, CO 2 /TPES turned worse in some countries in ASEAN+3. This is one of the reasons of substantial CO 2 emission increase and indicates the situation being heavily dependent to fossil fuels. (t-co 2 /toe) (Source : IEA) All Rights reserved IEEJ 16

17 Path toward low carbon society Brunei (1995) Cambodia China Indonesia Japan Korea Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Average Brunei (1995) Cambodia China Indonesia Japan Korea Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Average (199=1) CO2 emission TPES Real GDP Population CO 2 / GDP = (TPES / GDP) (CO 2 / TPES) Energy Conservation Energy Mix Change Energy Intensity Carbon Intensity 15 (toe/million 21 US$) (t-co 2 /toe) (Source : Calculated by IEEJ) All Rights reserved IEEJ 17

18 Key findings GDP and TPES growth rates are much higher compared to population growth rate, so the living standards of the people in ASEAN+3 generally seems to get better in 215 compared to that in 199. According to historical data over TPES and FEC by source, Coal has been the dominant energy source in ASEAN+3. Fossil fuels (Coal, Oil, and Natural gas) are still crucial for our lives. Self-sufficiency rate in Oil and Natural gas has been dropping even though their production has been increasing, whereas Self-sufficiency in Coal has been keeping high for the period between 199 and 215. Energy Intensity has improved in most of the countries of ASEAN+3 during 199 to 215. However, average energy intensity remains at the same level. Meanwhile, carbon Intensity increased in most of the ASEAN+3 countries. All Rights reserved IEEJ 18

19 Thank you.