OAQPS Modeling, monitoring, emissions (AQAD) Updates. Rich Scheffe US EPA Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards

Transcription

1 OAQPS Modeling, monitoring, emissions (AQAD) Updates Biogenic 2005 Fires EGU NonEGU Onroad Nonpoint Nonroad Rich Scheffe US EPA Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards 1

2 Example Benefits to EPA headquarters and the national air quality assessment community Treatment of fires in NEI and modeling inventories VIEWS data analysis system the complex terrain, variety of emissions, meteorology and spatial vastness suggests that Western U.S. assessment practice will lead efforts in comprehensive air quality characterization out of necessity 2

3 Thanks Kirk Baker Tyler Fox Lew Weinstock Pat Dolwick Joann Rice Time Hanley Robin Segall Mark Houyoux Ellen Baldridge David Mintz Jim Szykman (ORD) Vasu Kilaru (ORD) Jack Fishman (NASA) 3

4 Topics Emissions and Modeling National Monitoring Programs NAAQS driven NO2 and ozone primary NOx/SOx secondary Ozone secondary Non regulatory NCORE, CASTNET, CSN, satellites Blending data and Data integration/it systems National assessment tools and Western U.S. air quality- reinforcing the importance of regional partnerships to address regional issues 4

5 Integration across pollutants, climate and media: tradeoffs and optimum strategies? Primary Sources Climate forcing Climate forcing SVOC VOC (HAPs) CO NO SO 2 Hg HAP metals gases OH RO 2 HO 2 Climate forcing O3 hν OH O3 hν NO 2 OH NH 3 HNO 3 Climate forcing OH H 2 SO 4 OH, O3 Hg o,hg 2 Climate forcing particles Organic PM Nitrate PM Sulfate PM Chemical 5 Deposition

6 Evolutional change in National Air Pollution Management Initial CAA Biogenics Regional science 8-hr ozone PM 2.5 (annual driver) Regional Rules New PM Standards Daily/annual drivers Climate-AQ Hemispherical Transport Local/urban Regional Hemispheric 6

7 Emissions Measurements, National Emissions Inventory (NEI) and Modeled Emissions Note: new Emissions Inventory System (EIS) to house 2008 base NEI Early 2011 availability processed emissions for base year CMAQ simulations that drove CDC PHASE MP versions of 2002 and 2005 NEI and processed 12 km model fields (West and East) Note: EPA uses multi-year averaged fire emissions to carry to future projections 7

8 Focus on improving Western U.S. oils and gas operations EPA Other Test Method 10 (OTM 10) addressing fugitive VOCs Open Path FTIR Broadband instrument (Multiple Compounds at once) Monostatic (Source and Detector in one instrument) Mounted on Orbital Scanner Summa Canisters TO 14A GC/FID TO 15 GC/MS Met Station FLIR Camera Optical Remote Sensing (ORS) Path Averaged Concentration Data Robin R. Segall US EPA Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Measurement Technology Group WRAP Oil & Gas Workgroup October 20, 2009 Open Path FTIR Nonlocalized Emission Source Retrorefle ctor 8

9 NOx Onroad NorthEast Biogenic EGU NonEGU Nonpoint Nonroad 2005 Fires Onroad EGU Nonroad NonEGU Nonpoint Eastern PM2.5 Nonroad NH3 Onroad EGU NonEGU Nonpoint Onroad Biogenic 2005 Fires EGU VOC NonEGU Nonpoint Nonroad Onroad EGU 2005 Fires NonEGU Onroad NonEGU 2005 Fires SouthEast Nonroad Nonpoint Biogenic Nonpoint 2005 Fires Biogenic EGU 2005 Fires Onroad NonEGU Onroad NonEGU Nonpoint MidWest 2005 Fires Onroad SouthWest Biogenic Nonroad EGU NonEGU Nonpoint Nonroad Annual Average regional distribution of NOx and NH3 Emissions (courtesy, M. Houyoux) Nonpoint 2005 FiresEGU Onroad NonEGU Nonpoint NOx Biogenic 2005 Fires EGU NonEGU VOC NonEGU Nonpoint Nonroad Onroad 2005 Fires EGU NonEGU 2005 Fires Onroad NonEGU West Onroad Nonpoint Nonroad Biogenic 2005 Fires Onroad Nonpoint Nonroad Western PM2.5 NH3 9 Nonpoint

10 Air Quality Modeling Nationally Variety of NAAQS REA and RIA, mobile source and point source regulatory applications (2005 base): lifeblood of OAQPS Constant evaluation (CMAQ) as new processes/versions are developed by ORD Emerging developments Treating fines scales to address MP issues and support exposure modeling Instrumented modeling (SA) to more efficiently address attribution (primarily CAMX) Climate-AQ interactions Searching for optimized AQ-climate benefits Emphasis on short-lived species (O3, BC) 10

11 Western U.S. Photochemical Modeling Background (K. Baker) State of the science 3 dimensional photochemical grid models simulate the formation and transport of many secondarily formed pollutants and such as ozone and particulate matter Currently using both CMAQ v4.7 and CAMx v5.01 PM2.5 Sulfate Ion PM2.5 Total Mass Most recent modeling platform for western United States applications based on 2005 U.S. emissions; 2006 Canada and 1999 Mexico The 2005 emissions platform has been augmented with the WRAP Phase II oil and gas emission inventory Model performance for PM2.5 not ideal; sulfate ion estimates compare well to STN and IMPROVE but most other species do not Peak ozone tends to be underestimated in many urban areas; not currently capturing high winter ozone episodes 11

12 Western Transport Assessment (courtesy, K. Baker) Photochemical model source apportionment is a useful tool to assess interstate pollution transport Ozone and PM2.5 source apportionment used to track all anthropogenic emissions from western States to key receptor locations The sources selected for tracking with ozone source apportionment include all anthropogenic emissions from 17 selected States, Canada, Mexico, and boundary conditions Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas are partial States due to domain configuration Annual 12 km source apportionment simulations for 2005 and 2006 tracking State specific anthropogenic emissions to ozone and PM2.5 estimated at key receptor locations Issues with PM2.5 model performance may delay PM2.5 transport assessment in the western U.S. Need to continue to work with WRAP and the western States to improve our western US modeling platform 12

13 Modeling Issues (T. Fox) 1) tighter O3 stds in particular will place more of an emphasis on improving model performance in the non-california west--wintertime ozone formation issues, transport, visibility. Also will need to work closer with States that have not had to conduct such photochemical modeling for SIP demos for O3 or PM2.5 We provide SIP modeling guidance and App W but what can we do to better inform and communicate to foster collaborations here? 2) Multiple players so how best to communicate and coordinate? 3) oil and gas development is key emissions source that we need to improve coordination on 13

14 Ambient Air Monitoring 14

15 Updating the Ozone Monitoring Network (L. Weinstock) Intent noted in 2008 NAAQS final rule; monitoring proposal published July 16, 2009, final rule expected in 2010 Key provisions: Additional monitors in smaller urban areas where not already operating New non-urban monitors (3 per state) to characterize sensitive ecosystems and/or to provide coverage in less populated areas where elevated levels are occurring or likely Lengthened ozone monitoring seasons, where necessary, to ensure network operation when ambient levels approach NAAQS Proposed new monitors be deployed by January 1, 2012 Proposed ozone monitoring season changes effective on the first day of ozone monitoring in 2011 Look for a final ozone monitoring rule sometime between April and August of

16 Revising the Ozone Monitoring Seasons 2009 National Ambient Air Monitoring Conference, Nashville, TN 16

17 Revising the Ozone Monitoring Seasons 2009 National Ambient Air Monitoring Conference, Nashville, TN 17

18 Nitrogen Dioxide 18

19 Current NO 2 (?) Monitoring Network The current network was implemented to support an annual standard The existing sites are satisfying multiple objectives including: NAAQS compliance assessment of ozone formation and transport health study support Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) The current NO 2 network has approximately 400 sites, mostly representing area wide scales (neighborhood or larger scales) 19

20 Near-road NO 2 Site Selection Rank all road segments within a CBSA by Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) and then identifying a location or locations adjacent to those highest road segments where maximum hourly NO 2 concentrations are expected to be highest Additional factors to consider: proximity to interchanges, fleet mix (diesel vs. light-duty), rapidly accelerating traffic, grade-climbing traffic, local terrain and meteorological effects Monitor probes must be no greater than 50 meters away, horizontally, from the outside nearest edge of the traffic lanes of the target road segment Located within 2 to 7 meters above the ground; may be placed on the interior side of any noise barriers (not ideal, however) Beckerman et.al.,

21 Proposed approach Tier 1 Near road sites 21

22 Proposed approach Tier 2 area wide sites 22

23 Alternative approach area wide (only) sites Alternative NO 2 Network Design Area-wide sites only Note: Alaska would have 1 area-wide site in Anchorage and Hawaii would have 1 area-wide site in Honolulu. San Juan, PR would have 2 area-wide sites. 23

24 Role of National Assessment Tools in support of Western U.S. Air Quality Historical emphasis on Eastern US applications Original RADM NAPAP modeling, ROM The West is challenging relative to softer gradations in Eastern U.S. topography Further confounded by: Challenging emissions characterizations, e.g., dominant role of fires New dispersed oil/gas operations Meteorology Precursor Concentration enhancing (mtn-valley inversions) Exacerbated photochemical stimulation (bright surfaces/snow) Intercontinental transport Western Modeling Center? Monitoring network design tethered to population surrogate approaches Natural conflict with Western heterogeneity 24

25 Rethinking Nitrogen/ozone monitoring in rural/regional scales Nitrogen is universal across environmental issues/media, atmospheric chemistry and physics, and national control scenarios --echoing Paul T. Population weighted approach inadequate to characterize regional scale air quality exacerbated in the West NAAQS by itself can not drive adequate network design 25

26 National Nitrogen Observation Networks Also SEARCH, NPS SLAMS NADP CASTNET PM speciation NCORE 26

27 Existing and proposed sentinel sites LRTAP 2007 assessment Å Alert Å Zeppelin Mt. Å Existing sites ÅúRecommended Å Pt. Barrow Å Mauna Loa Å Sodakayla Å Pallas Å Mace Head Åú Å Jungfraujoch Å Mt. BatchelorÅ Whiteface Mt. Å Trinidad Head Å Pico-NARE Å Izana Åú Åú Mt. WaliguanÅ Åú Åú Åú Å Mt. Tai Å Mt. Huangi Å Minamitorishima 27

28 What s missing 1 st what is adequate (relative terms) Great NO network wet and dry nitrate But, Rural coverage in general especially Western States Virtually no true NO 2 observations Skeleton NOy network Missing routine and sustained vertical profile and aloft data Sentinel transport sites Reliance on occasional intensive studies (2010 CALNEX) 28

29 Rethinking Nitrogen/ozone monitoring in rural/regional scales Opportunities NAAQS New NO2 standard Lead to molecule specific observations N/S secondary standards review Possible growth of NOy observations Increased attention to NH3 catalyze blending models and obs (spatial scarcity and wet-dry anomolies) Tighter primary ozone standards & secondary ozone standard Spread to regional/western locations Greater influence of hemispherical transport Collaborations across agencies, remote sensing Blending models and observations 29

30 Satellites provide best source of ambient NO 2 : Accountability and Trends Figure 20. Left - superimposed Eastern U.S. emission and combined GOME and SCIAMACHY NO trends (Kim et al., 2006); right - GOME NO2 trends from (after Richter, 2005). Clear evidence of reductions in midwest U.S. and European NOx emissions, and increased NOx generated in Eastern Asia. Figure OMI NO2 column images aggregated for all Fridays (left) and Sundays (right) indicating weekend/weekday patterns associated with reduced Sunday emissions (source, Husar). 30

31 Global Distribution of Nitrogen Dioxide: Precursors to Ozone Formation (Fishman) Tropospheric NO 2 columns retrieved from the SCIAMACHY satellite instrument for (after Martin et al., 2002) 31

32 Overview of the GEO-CAPE Mission Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events Mission Jack Fishman Science Directorate NASA Langley Research Center OH Understanding the the Oxidizing Capacity (amount and distribution of OH) of the Troposphere and the Tropospheric Ozone Cycle Drives the Science Species in Red Can be Observed by Satellite 32

33 Best Method to Observe Pollution is from Geostationary Orbit TOMS (Daily) 100-km res. Geostationary (Hourly) OMI (Daily) Map of Houston and surrounding area Technology Readily Available: O 3, CO, NO 2, SO 2, CH 2 O and aerosols 33

34 Integrated Column NO 2 Accurately Captures Diurnal Behavior 45 Surface Concentrations and Integrated NO 2 Column Calculated by CMAQ Plotted as a Function of Hour: June 22-23, 2005 Surface NO 2 Concentrations Calculated by CMAQ Plotted as a Function of Hour: June 22-23, 2005 Column NO 2 Calculated by CMAQ (10 15 mol. cm -2 ) Surface NO 2 Calculated by CMAQ (ppb) Measurements from GeoTRACE Capture Daylight Portion of Diurnal Cycle June 22 Hour of Day (GMT) June 23 Observations from GEO: NO Surface NO2 Column NO2 2 Measurements Every Minutes Throughout Sunlit Hours 34

35 Blending observations and models: Data Fusion (Rizzo/Baldridge) -Support for poorly monitored areas e.g., Rural ozone characterization th High Observed Concentrations (at 436 test sites used in the interpolations) th High CMAQ Concentrations (for each grid cell) 2001 evna 4 th High Concentrations (Daily Interpolations) = Another Eastern U.S. HQ bias? 35

36 CDC PHASE ozone and PM2.5 surfaces (Kilaru) 36

37 Data/IT systems A word about VIEWS/TSS Collaboration with NASA ROSES CSU/CMAS, USDA and Bluesky Rains, GEOSS Community cost sharing 37

38 Maximizing space/time/composition through systems integration Integration of systems to improve air quality models for forecast Current and Retrospective assessments Global-Regional Air Quality Connections Climate-AQ connections Land AQ Monitors Total column depth (through Satellites) AQ model results Vertical Profiles Integrated Observation- Modeling Optimized air chemistry Characterizations Exposure/Health accountability Air management ecosystems 38

39 Appendices 39

40 Near-road NO 2 Site Selection Rank all road segments within a CBSA by Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) and then identifying a location or locations adjacent to those highest road segments where maximum hourly NO 2 concentrations are expected to be highest Additional factors to consider: proximity to interchanges, fleet mix (diesel vs. light-duty), rapidly accelerating traffic, grade-climbing traffic, local terrain and meteorological effects Monitor probes must be no greater than 50 meters away, horizontally, from the outside nearest edge of the traffic lanes of the target road segment Located within 2 to 7 meters above the ground; may be placed on the interior side of any noise barriers (not ideal, however) Beckerman et.al.,

41 Overview of Public Comments on NO 2 Current Standard CASAC, environmental/public health groups, and most states agree with the proposed conclusion that the current standard alone is not requisite to protect public health with an adequate margin of safety Some industry groups commented that revision of the current standard is not justified at this time based largely on uncertainties in the scientific evidence Approach to setting a new 1-hour standard and establishing a 2-tiered monitoring network CASAC, environmental/public health groups, and most states support the establishment of a new 1-hour standard and the need to obtain better information on NO 2 concentrations around roads Groups disagree regarding the most appropriate approach Industry does not support the establishment of a new 1-hour standard or the proposed monitoring network based largely on uncertainties in the scientific evidence Standard level and form CASAC and some States support our proposed ranges of levels and recommend a 98 th percentile form under the proposed approach Environmental/public health groups recommend a lower level with a more stringent form (e.g., 99 th percentile or no exceedance) Industry groups recommend a higher level and generally recommend a 98 th percentile form 41

42 CASAC Comments on NO 2 Approach CASAC strongly supports the establishment of a new 1-hour standard and the need to obtain better information on NO 2 concentrations around roads CASAC consensus was that we need to monitor near roads, but CASAC members were split regarding the most appropriate approach The majority of CASAC members favor the proposed approach noting that this approach would be more effective than the alternative at limiting roadway-associated exposures A minority of CASAC members favor the alternative approach, combined with the establishment of a research-oriented near-road network noting That epidemiologic studies did not use near-roadway exposure data The limited information available at this time to inform the design of a national roadside monitoring network 42

43 Other Public Comments on NO 2 Most environmental and public health organizations strongly support the proposed NAAQS and near-road monitoring Mixed response from State, Local, and tribal air monitoring groups and agencies. Mostly support near-road monitoring, but are divided on: 1) Specifics on monitor requirement triggers and siting, and 2) Whether EPA should run a research network (nonregulatory) or an actual regulatory network 43

44 Anticipated NO 2 Implementation Schedule Under a judicial consent decree, EPA must complete this review of the primary NO 2 standard by January 22, Milestone State Designation Recommendations to EPA Designations New NO 2 Monitoring Network Nonattainment Re- Designations Dates for Proposed Approach January 2011: Based on existing network data because near-road monitors not in place January 2012: EPA designates all/most areas as unclassifiable because near road monitors not in place January 1, 2013: Monitoring sites operational January 2018 based on ambient data Dates for Alternative Approach January 2011 utilizing existing network January 2012 utilizing existing network January 1, 2013: New areawide monitoring sites operational but not utilized for current round of designations Not Applicable Attainment Date January 2023: 5 years after date of re-designations January

45 County-Level Ozone Design Value Maps based on data 9/8/09 Contact David Mintz x5224 with questions 45

46 Counties with hour Ozone Design Value Above ppm Counties with hour Design Value Above ppm Virgin Islands Alaska Hawaii Puerto Rico 46

47 Counties with hour Ozone Design Value Above ppm Counties with hour Design Value Above ppm Virgin Islands Alaska Hawaii Puerto Rico 47

48 Counties with hour Ozone Design Value Above ppm Counties with hour Design Value Above ppm Virgin Islands Alaska Hawaii Puerto Rico 48

49 Counties with hour Ozone Design Value Above ppm Counties with hour Design Value Above ppm Virgin Islands Alaska Hawaii Puerto Rico 49

50 Counties with W126 Ozone Design Value Above 2 Counties with W126 Value Above 21 ppm-hours Virgin Islands Alaska Hawaii Puerto Rico 50

51 Counties with W126 Ozone Design Value Above 1 Counties with W126 Value Above 15 ppm-hours Virgin Islands Alaska Hawaii Puerto Rico 51

52 ounties with W126 Ozone Design Value Above Counties with W126 Value Above 7 ppm-hours Virgin Islands Alaska Hawaii Puerto Rico 52

53 Monitoring site locations for CAMX Hiawatha EIS project, courtesy ENVIRON 53

54 Additional counties that would be nonattainment for a W126 secondary standard compared to alternative primary standards (based on data) 7 ppm-hours 15 ppmhours 21 ppmhours ppm ppm ppm ppm

55 Western U.S. Photochemical Modeling Background State of the science 3 dimensional photochemical grid models simulate the formation and transport of many secondarily formed pollutants and such as ozone and particulate matter Currently using both CMAQ v4.7 and CAMx v5.01 Most recent modeling platform for western United States applications based on 2005 U.S. emissions; 2006 Canada and 1999 Mexico PM2.5 Sulfate Ion The 2005 emissions platform has been augmented with the WRAP Phase II oil and gas emission inventory PM2.5 Total Mass Model performance for PM2.5 not ideal; sulfate ion estimates compare well to STN and IMPROVE but most other species do not Peak ozone tends to be underestimated in many urban areas; not currently capturing high winter ozone episodes 55

56 Ozone Designations Photochemical model source apportionment tracks the formation and transport of ozone and PM2.5 from specific emissions sources and allows the calculation of contribution to specific receptors Photochemical model source apportionment is an ideal tool to estimate the combined impact of multiple factors of the 9 factor ozone designation analysis Source apportionment photochemical modeling for ozone designations tracks all anthropogenic NOX and VOC emissions from specific counties for contribution to ozone estimated at nonattainment monitor locations (does not include fires for contribution analysis) Annual 2005 and 2006 source apportionment modeling for Western U.S. at 12 km grid resolution Counties were selected if they comprised part of a CSA or CBSA that had a violating monitor for the new 8-hr ozone NAAQS; EPA Regional offices added additional counties for tracking in the model Model tends to underestimate the higher ozone concentrations (ozone observation/10 on X axis) 56

57 active inactive NADP sites: approximately 250 weekly precipitation samples analyzed for sulfate, SO 4-2, nitrate, NO -1 3, and ammonium, NH

58 Castnet sites: ~ 86; weekly averaged dry gases - SO2, HNO3, particles - NH4, SO4, NO3. 58

59 Ozone and Climate (P. Dolwick) In addition to posing a significant risk to public health and welfare, ozone is important as a short-lived climate forcer. contribution is ~20% that of CO 2 ozone reductions would yield immediate climate benefits Climate-focused ozone reductions may involve different pollutants and sectors than strategies designed to lower short-term peaks e.g., methane and carbon monoxide EPA is building modeling capacity to assess joint climate/health impacts of ozone precursor reductions. (Adapted from IPCC Synthesis Report, 2007; as well as Ramanathan and Carmichael, 2008) 59

60 MSA of population 50k 350k with no current ozone monitors Ozone Monitor Locations Metropolitan Statistical Areas Red Outlines No Ozone Monitors (based on complete data for and ) 60

61 Summary of the NO 2 NAAQS and Monitoring Proposal Proposed approach Retain the current annual standard and to increase public health protection against respiratory effects linked to short-term NO 2 exposure by setting a new 1-hour standard reflecting the maximum allowable NO 2 concentration anywhere in an area Level: Proposed 80 to 100 ppb and solicited comment from 65 to 150 ppb Form: proposed 99 th percentile and solicited comment on 98 th percentile In order to have monitors in locations where peak NO 2 concentrations are likely to occur, we also proposed to require a 2- tiered NO 2 monitoring network that would include Near road monitors: Monitors placed within 50 meters of major roadways, and Area-wide monitors: Monitors placed away from major roadways to measure NO 2 concentrations that occur more broadly across the community 61

62 Summary of the NO 2 NAAQS and Monitoring Proposal Alternative approach We solicited comment on setting the 1-hour standard such that it would reflect the allowable area-wide NO 2 concentrations Under this alternative, we solicited comment on standard levels from 50 to 75 ppb In order to have monitors that measure area-wide NO 2 concentrations, we solicited comment on requirements for monitor placement, including a requirement that monitors be located at some minimum distance from major roadways 62

63 PM Speciation Monitoring Pilot (J. Rice) PM mass monitoring required as part of NCore Some measurement issues not yet resolved Prior to future implementation, a small pilot project will occur in 2010 at two locations Primarily using PM FRMs and dichot FEMs Goal to identify key target species Further development of analysis methods Develop Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) CASAC consultation on pilot February 2009 Supported pilot monitoring effort Strongly recommended use of dichot samplers Recommended analysis of pilot data prior to network deployment move slowly 63

64 Satellite NO 2 Portion of AIRNow Satellite Data Processor (ASDP) 2009 NASA ROSES Project (P. Dickerson PI, courtesy Szykman).. Significant Temporal Correlation Between In Situ and OMI-derived Surface NO2 Significant Temporal Correlation Between In Situ and OMI-derived Surface NO 2 Future work NO2: (led by Martin and Lamsal) Correlation of Coincident Observations over 2005 Lamsal et al., JGR, 2008 Extend to operational with OMI and GOME-2 using monthly GEOS-Chem NO 2 profiles Continue developing relationship between column and surface NO 2 (lightning, clouds, spatial resolution) Evaluation against surface NO2 measurements SEARCH Network (Photolytic converter analyzers ), SLAMS/EPA Network (Molybdenum converter analyzers), and Langley/VADEQ/EPA and EPA-RTP sites (Photolytic 64 converter analyzer)