Sustainable Bio-economy. Bart MUYS Dept. Earth & Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven

Transcription

1 Summer School Forest Bioeconomy in Southern Europe: opportunities and challengessustainability Assessment Donostia, June 2017 Sustainable Bio-economy Bart MUYS Dept. Earth & Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven

2 OUTLINE Ecocrisis Sustainable Development (SD) concepts & definition Intro to SD assessment tools Changing the economic model & role of forest-based bio-economy Sustainability issues & opportunities of the bio-economy Transition management to the sustainable bioeconomy Conclusions

3 Human appropriation of land and energy sources Regime shifts in the metabolic profile of humans as part of the socialecological system Muys (2013) Challenges in Sust.

4 Type of society Years back Human energy needs Industrial Technological Improved agricultural 10 3 Primitive agricultural 10 4 Hunters-gatherers Primitive Daily Pro Capita Energy Consumption (1000 kilocalories) Cook (1971)

5 Metabolic regime shifts Haberl et al. (2011), Sust. Dev. 19, 1-14.

6 The ecocrisis Trespassing the safe operating space for humanity for key factors of planetary stability Rockström et al. (2009) Nature 461

7 IDEA 1 Humanity is trespassing its safe operating space for several key factors of planetary stability

8 Source image: RESPONSE TO ECOCRISIS PILLAR MODEL OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

9 PILLAR MODEL Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (WCED, 1987 the Brundtland Report) Commonalities: Intergenerational Including ecological, economic and social aspects multiscale

10 WHAT IS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT? Interpretation: important positive Compromise beween ecology and economy Hot topic As many interpretations as interpreters Everybody thinks he/she is implementing it Something difficult to measure In conclusion, a crucial concept, but unpractically defined Sustainable development is an essentially contested notion, because it is inherently complex, normative, subjective and ambiguous (Kasemir et al., 2003).

11 CONCEPTS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT The factor four report of the Club of Rome shows the necessity and the technological possibility to quadruple resource productivity, while the factor 10 club launched by the Wuppertal Institute suggests that factor four will not be enough to be sustainable. Griggs et al. (2013) Nature

12 CONCEPTS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Griggs et al. (2013) Nature

13 From PILLAR to NESTED model Griggs et al. (2013) Nature Economy is at the service of societal well-being, and societies can prosper within the possibilities and limits offered by the natural environment. Things have to be ecologically sound to be economically viable (Piketty) Increasingly influential, as feasible alternative for the pillar model, which is failing to keep society within planetary boundaries (Rockström et al Nature; Steffen et al Science)

14 IDEA 2 Policy makers need stronger awareness of the non-negotiable planetary boundary conditions for prosperity and well-being Respecting safe operating space implies adoption of a strong, nested model of sustainable development

15 Concepts of Sustainable Development Challenge: Based on pillar model, build an unequivocal definition of sustainable development, which can serve as a good theoretical basis for quantitative sustainability assessment

16 ENERGY model This model is based on the thermodynamics of complex systems, as described by James Kay in 4 steps: 1. Complex living systems are open systems with access to external exergy sources (exergy is useful energy able to do work); 2. Complex living systems use part of this exergy to increase their internal exergy content (order from disorder) 3. Complex living systems with high exergy content have higher potential to dissipate exergy flows; it means that they can be better buffered against disturbances, and thus often have higher stability 4. Complex living systems have the ability to maintain and increase the capabilities of exergy storage and exergy dissipation through memory and learning (order from order)

17 ENERGY model Ecosystems: Goal function: max[exergy buffering] by max[exergy storage] Main exergy source: solar exergy Exergy storage: ecosystem structure (biomass, biodiversity) Exergy buffering: ecosystem function (temperature buffering, control of nutrient and water flows, erosion control, windbreak) Memory: DNA Human societies: Goal function: max[exergy buffering] by max[exergy storage] Main exergy sources: biomass from ecosystems and (since 19th century) fossil fuels Exergy storage: prosperity (food reserves, houses, bank accounts, other comforts) Exergy buffering: well-being (health care, protection against hunger, war, natural and technical disasters) Memory: DNA, oral and written information, bits and bytes Ecosystems and Human societies function thermodynamically identical: they are entropy machines, where entropy production is potentially contributing to system maintenance and stability But human societies are a subsystem depending on ecosystems (as exergy source and for exergy buffering) Therefore: Sustainable development is increase of human prosperity (economy) and well-being (social) without significant loss of ecosystem structure and function (environment) (Muys 2013 Chall. i. Sust.)

18 IDEA 3 Sustainable Development is an optimization process with two main objectives to be realized simultaneously

19 II. SUSTAINABILITY II.2.1 Environmental Assessment Tools The best fits between questions and methods to answer (Baelemans & Muys, 1998) POL MAN INV CON NGO C&I -0,20 0, ,36-0,02 LCA ,66-0, KBS -0,56 0, ,17 0,01 EIA 0,36-0, ,65 CBA ,34 0, POL EIA (not significant) MAN KBS (significant) IND LCA (significant) CON C&I (not significant) NGO EIA (significant)

20 IDEA 4 Several SD evaluation tools exist with each its strengths & weaknesses. The trend is towards integrated process-based approaches including impacts and services

21 Need for revising the economic model The current empty world model Source: Costanza et al. (1997) 21

22 The full world model of the social-ecological system Source: Costanza et al. (1997) 22

23 Concept of ECOSYSTEM SERVICES Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) 23

24 Sustainable bio-economy: an excellent road to the full world model Economic activity based on current natural capital Focusing on ecosystem services Avoiding the impacts of the fossil-based economy 24

25 Ecosystem function Ecosystem benefits Ecosystem Society Structure Environmental changes Prosperity Processes Ecosystem Services monitoring Implementation Wellbeing management Evaluation societal demands Governance processes Analysis Synthesis

26 IDEA 5 The sustainable bio-economy must be based on a full world economic model, maintaining quality and quantity of ecosystem services to human well-being

27 Complex behaviour Linear thinking Forest cover proportional Fire risk Fire management - Sensibilization - Prediction - Fire fighting Satisfactory protection - Forests - Real estate - Human lives Complex non-linear reality No land management Biomass accumulation Land conflicts - Traditional land uses - Urban development Land abandonment Forest cover disproportional Fire risk Fire management - Sensibilization - Prediction - Fire fighting Unsatisfactory protection

28 Transition Governance: contributions from complexity science Holling diagram: Increased system complexity typically leads to decreased resilience

29 Concepts of Transition Governance Is now emerging with a change in state of mind among citizens, private sector, and public authorities having a clear awareness that change to a sustainable carbon neutral society is unavoidable, and will create job and business opportunities. Serves as a platform to stimulate the creation of innovation niches and supports the initiation of transition experiments. Generates a process of up-scaling, in which society and government mutually strengthen each other in a 4E governance process of societal change (a combination of hard instruments Enable and Encourage and soft instruments Exemplify and Engage).

30 How to shape the sustainability transition? Possible societal transition dynamics (after Rotmans 2008). Under the pressure of a changing landscape and initiated by innovative niches, a successful transition can lead to a stable new regime, unless resisting factors, such as old regime players with vested interests in the status quo, are too strong.

31 Examples of emerging niches and experiments Increasing awareness that current industrial agriculture is a global dead end (carbon footprint eutrophication pollinators resilience) stimulates food system transition experiments, such as agroforestry, or community supported agriculture Bio-economy innovations can link rural renaissance with sustainable cities, by providing engineered wood or biorefinery products Local climate action plans as powerful bottom-up initiatives fundamentally changing minds International and local learning networks are useful to share experiences and to promote climate policy objectives at different scales

32 IDEA 6 Urgent transition to a sustainable society is needed. It involves fundamental rethinking of production and consumption patterns Numerous innovation niches and experiments of societal change are already emerging Transition Governance is the way forward to scale out these initiatives towards overall societal change Sustainable bio-economy is a useful approach to this

33 SUSTAINABILITY ISSUES OF THE BIO-ECONOMY Existing standards: Forest Europe FSC EU liquid biofuels Forest biomass (Fritsche et al. 2013) Environmental dimension Biodiversity Global Carbon Cycles Health & Vitality High conservation value forests Biodiversity Environmental impact Resources Landscapes Primary forest Protected areas High diversity grasslands GHG emission savings Biodiversity Soils, Water, Hydrology GHG reduction Social dimension Protective function Socio-economic function Law compliance Tenure & Use rights Indigenous peoples rights Workers rights Community relations Land use rights Labour conventions Legal timber Economic dimension Production function Long term benefits Effect on food prices Institutional dimension Management plan Monitoring In a EU context many social and economic issues are taken care of in a wider non-forest context Effective environmental safeguards needed

34 Wolfslehner et al SUSTAINABILITY ISSUES OF THE BIO-ECONOMY

35 SUSTAINABILITY ASPECTS OF THE BIO-ECONOMY Sustained yield Climate mitigation and adaptation Water Biodiversity Integration/Synergies

36 SUSTAINED YIELD Transition to biobased economy will lead to scarcer and more valuable biomass From a historical perspective biobased economies are a threat to forest growing stocks Sustained yields in and outside Europe will be at stake and yield regulation will become a policy and management challenge. 21st century biobased economy must demonstrate the effectiveness of its sustained yield control tools We propose a stress test on the existing control tools in every European country

37 SUSTAINABLE YIELD = maintenance of long-term site productivity Gobin et al Soil Organic Matter management across the EU, DG ENV It is good practice to minimize extraction of nutrients and to compensate losses where needed Overall limitation and site specific prohibition on stump and harvesting residues extraction

38 Climate mitigation options Nabuurs et al., 2016, EFI FSTP2

39 Forests play key role in mitigation targets PARIS AGREEMENT: ¼ of anticipated global emission reductions by 2030 (INDCs) in LULUCF(Grassi et al., 2017, Nature CC) LULUCF crucial to stay within 1.5 C Rockström et al A roadmap for rapid decarbonization, Science

40 Carbon storage in wood EU-POOL: 9t C for every ha of productive forest (Germany 22tC/ha, doubled over the last 20 years) (Brunet Navarro 2017, PhD KU Leuven, CASTLE Marie Curie Training Network) CURRENT EU-SINK: about 10% of forest carbon sink SHORT TERM: maintaining sink only at the expense of forest C (Pili et al. 2015, Carbon Balance & Management) LONG TERM: maintaining sink by generalising CLT in construction and cascading Tollefson, 2017 The wooden skyscrapers that could help to cool the planet Nature

41 Cascading and substitution Mitigation effect of EU wood sector: effects of carbon stock change (full lines) and total effect with substitution (dashed lines) for different scenarios (Brunet Navarro, 2017, PhD KU Leuven, CASTLE Marie Curie Training Network) Long-term potential of cascading scenarios and substitution is huge; energy scenario always less effective than BAU; need to include substitution in climate policies

42 Beyond carbon: forests for global ecosystem services Trees, forests and water: Cool insights for a hot world (Ellison et al. 2017, Global Environmental Change) Joint efforts between conventions

43 The power of mixture Growing evidence of positive diversity-productivity and diversity-stability relationships (global inventory data, FunDivEUROPE exploratories, TREEDIVNET experiments Liang et al Positive biodiversity-productivity relationship predominant in global forests, Science

44 Rewildering at different scale levels Landscape Continent Global Set-aside 1/3 of productive land for natural processes

45 Integrating mitigation with other ecosystem services: from tradeoffs to synergies Decision support system development Lessons learnt from AFFOREST, INTEGRAL, DIABOLO, ALTERFOR, MANFOR projects Van Gansbeke et al Spatially combining wood production and recreation with biodiversity conservation. Biodiversity & Conservation

46 INTEGRATED SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT (ISA) Need for sustainability tools and instruments which consider: The complexity and non-linearity of the system, and the uncertainties involved Innovation and transition, rather than gradual optimization Not only negative impacts, also ecosystem services The participatory approach

47 IDEA 7 The main sustainability issues of the forest-based bio-economy are related to sustainable yield and biodiversity, and its main sustainability benefits are bioproduction, climate mitigation and water management. There are plenty of opportunities to find synergies between them.

48 Some conclusions Transition to a sustainable society is unavoidable. It is a motor for optimism, job creation and business opportunities (Rifkin s Third Industrial Revolution). Transition is about fundamental changes to live within safe boundaries set by the global ecosystem Sustainable bio-economy is an effective approach to this transition Indicators and assessment tools are essential instruments to monitor and shape a sustainable bio-economy

49 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION