RTP-SCS Preferred Scenario. October 18,

Transcription

1 RTP-SCS Preferred Scenario October 18,

2 Summary Seek Board direction on Preferred Scenario to prepare draft RTP-SCS and EIR. Clarify scenario definitions / review performance results. Other MPOs approaches to transit and funding options. Public Workshop and EIR scoping comments. JTAC and staff recommendation. October 18,

3 Regional Transportation Plan Core purpose the same: prioritize transportation funding and projects. New requirement: Sustainable Communities Strategy. Takes land use and growth in account to optimize transportation system performance. No direct regulation of land use. Local General Plans independent & local land use control maintained. Prior transportation funding commitments unchanged. October 18,

4 RTP-SCS Requirements 1. Identify areas sufficient to house all population growth to 2040 and to accommodate Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA). 2. Identify transportation network to meet region s needs. 3. Be financially constrained. 4. Forecasted development pattern + transportation network that meets greenhouse gas emission target in 2020 and 2035 for passenger vehicles. State GHG emissions target: zero net growth per capita October 18,

5 Alternative Scenarios 1. Future Baseline. 2. No Project. 3. Transit-Oriented Development/Infill. 4. Urban Area Expansion. 5. Blended Infill/Expansion. 6. North County-weighted Jobs, South Countyweighted Housing Emphasis. 7. Transit-Oriented Development/Infill + Enhanced Transit. 8. Historic Commute Trend Continued. October 18,

6 Scenarios Pyramid + Adds enhanced transit service + Enhanced transit strategy + Locates new population and jobs within urban transit corridors Allocates jobs north and housing south Locates growth at the urban edge 5 October 18,

7 Scenario 7 Transit Enhancements Originally conceived as limiting case for study purposes. Doubles bus route frequencies to determine effect on ridership, VMT, emissions, congestion and cost: Inter-regional Service Clean Air Express VISTA Coastal Express Coastal Express Limited Local Service MTD, SMAT, COLT October 18,

8 2040 RTP Project Costs Scenario 7 adds $734 million for transit enhancement. October 18,

9 Key Findings (Review) Scenarios 3 and 7 are the best performing across all RTP goal categories and performance measures. Co-benefits. Most VMT and GHG reductions are achieved through land use changes, which shorten trip distance, rather than through increased transit use. Land use changes and transit enhancements result in significant increases in transit ridership (Scen 7 = 60%), but overall transit mode share remains < 2% of total trips. Cumulatively and individually, non-committed projects affect transportation system performance only slightly. October 18,

10 Scenario Modeling Results

11 Per Capita GHG Reduction PRELIMINARY PASSENGER VEHICLE CO 2 EMISSIONS ESTIMATES FOR THE RTP-SCS 2005*** 2020 Scenario SBCAG Regional Model Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) 9,430,384 10,480,400 10,576,600 9,498,700 10,854,100 9,698,100 9,767,200 9,490,400 10,357,900 Passenger Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)* 8,438,000 9,434,400 9,520,600 8,554,400 9,769,300 8,733,200 8,795,100 8,547,000 9,324,600 Passenger Vehicle CO 2 Emissions** (tons per day) 3,870 4,290 4,350 3,910 4,440 3,980 4,020 3,910 4,240 Population 417, , , , , , , , ,890 Passenger Vehicle CO 2 per Capita (pounds per day) Difference from % increase from % 5.2% -5.4% 7.4% -3.7% -2.8% -5.4% 5.7% 2005*** 2035 Scenario SBCAG Regional Model Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) 9,430,384 12,141,300 12,232,100 10,213,600 11,681,600 10,524,400 10,507,700 10,204,700 11,884,300 Passenger Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)* 8,438,000 10,871,000 10,952,000 9,151,400 10,461,000 9,428,600 9,413,700 9,143,400 10,641,800 Passenger Vehicle CO 2 Emissions** (tons per day) 3,870 4,940 4,970 4,180 4,750 4,300 4,290 4,180 4,830 Population 417, , , , , , , , ,360 Passenger Vehicle CO 2 per Capita (pounds per day) Difference from % increase from % 5.7% -11.2% 1.0% -8.6% -8.8% -11.2% 8.3% October 18,

12 SB 375 Target Threshold CO 2 Per Capita 21 Scenario 1 20 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 19 Scenario 5 Scenario 6 18 Scenario 7 Scenario Zero Growth Target Scenarios 3 and 7 identical October 18,

13 Other MPOs Approaches SANDAG ¼-cent sales tax + public-private partnerships. Legal challenge claiming inadequate transit investments. 6% from new sources. SCAG Core vs. reasonably available funding. Land uses go beyond existing GPs. Significant enhanced transit. 40% from new sources. SACOG Enhanced transit based on additional ½-cent sales tax 6% from new sources. October 18,

14 Possible Funding Sources Revenue Source Responsible Use SCAG SACOG SANDAG Parties Bond Proceeds from Current Local Regional Flexible X Sales Tax Measures New Local Sales Tax Measure Regional Flexible X* X** State and Federal Gas Excise Tax State, Federal Flexible X Adjustment to Maintain Historical Purchasing Power Mileage-based User Fee (or equivalent fuel tax adjustment) State, Federal Flexible X Highway Tolls (including toll revenue bond proceeds) Regional, State, Federal Highways Private equity participation Regional, State Flexible X X Freight fee / National Freight Program State, Federal, Regional Freightrelated E-Commerce Tax State, Federal Flexible X Interest Earnings from Toll Revenue See Highway Tolls Highway X Bond Proceeds State Bond Proceeds, Federal Grants, Regional, State Rail X and Other for California High Speed Rail Program Value Capture Strategies Regional, Local Flexible X X October 18, X X

15 Public Workshop Comments Scenario Preference Poll Results Workshop Scen. 3 Scen. 5 Scen. 6 Scen. 7 Abstain Total Santa Ynez Santa Maria Santa Barbara Lompoc Total October 18,

16 Staff and JTAC Recommendation Scenario 3 (Transit-oriented Development/Infill) plus Strategy for Future Enhanced Transit Commitment to developing a strategy for identifying potential funding and expanding transit service: (1) When transit service enhancements are needed (2) Protecting existing funding for local needs (e.g., local streets and roads). October 18,

17 Recommended Scenario 3+ Addresses jobs-housing imbalance in infill areas over time. Land uses based on local government plans. Targeted & balanced transit enhancement. Beats State GHG target: 5% less in 2020 and 11% in Performs very well on all other measures. Financially constrained with existing revenues. Framework for CEQA streamlining in transit corridors. Heads off critics/ challenges. Consistent with other MPOs approaches. Public supports. October 18,

18 Scenarios Comparison Scenario Inputs Land Uses TOD/Infill Changes per Local Plans? Yes Yes Yes Jobs/Housing Correction? Yes Yes Yes Transportation Projects All programmed and planned? Yes Yes Yes Additional transit enhancements? No Yes Yes Conditions? N/A Flexible, When Needed Balanced, Protects Local Needs Fixed Revenues & Costs Additional Revenues Needed? No Only If Available Yes Amount Needed? None TBD + $733 million October 18,

19 Next Steps 1. Check-in with CARB staff. 2. Draft RTP-SCS and EIR per Board direction. 3. Continue to develop/refine preferred scenario with JTAC guidance. Tight timeframe: RTP-SCS adoption by August October 18,

20 Thank you October 18,