I DON T CARE WHAT THEY SAY, THIS GLOBAL WARMING SCARE IS JUST A BUNCH OF LOONY LEFT- WING ENVIRONMENTAL ANTI-GROWTH HYPE! SO, IS THIS YOUR FIRST

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1 I DON T CARE WHAT THEY SAY, THIS GLOBAL WARMING SCARE IS JUST A BUNCH OF LOONY LEFT- WING ENVIRONMENTAL ANTI-GROWTH HYPE! SO, IS THIS YOUR FIRST WINTER HERE IN BLAINE?

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4 Salt Lake City Tribune August 2015

5 What Does the Crystal Ball Indicate for Future Precipitation and Streamflows? Description of Recent Event Regional Historical Trends Climate Change Projections

6 About OWSC Expert source for climate and weather information and data for the public, state agencies, other researchers, local decision makers Over 100 requests/year from public, state agencies, media, researchers, etc. Links to reputable climate information OWSC-developed climate tools Monthly newsletter

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9 Oct-Mar Cascade Mountains temperature and precipitation courtesy of Karin Bumbaco

10 El Nino Winters

11 June Heat Wave All-time June max T records set at Pullman (99 F), Moses Lake (106 F), Ephrata (107 F), Colville (104 F), Omak (107 F) on 27 th Warmest June T recorded anywhere in the state: 113 F at Walla Walla and Chief Joseph Dam on the 28 th Averaged statewide, June was record warmest 7.8 F above 20 th century average F above normal

12 The mouth of the White Salmon River in July 2015

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15 Temperature Trends Squares aren t significant linear trends; circles are significant at 95% Abatzoglou et al (J. Climate)

16 WA State Summer Temperatures

17 Summer Minimum Temperatures Puget Sound Climate Division

18 Low-level Humidity

19 *Sauk *Beaver Pass

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25 Temperature Changes by Season Changes relative to mean 25

26 Modeled Change In Temperature Nov-Dec-Jan Jun-Jul-Aug

27 Precipitation Changes by Season 2020s Changes relative to mean 2040s Wetter winters Drier summers 2080s (slide courtesy of Ingrid Tohver - UW CIG) 27 WACCIA (

28 Modeled Change in Precipitation Nov-Dec-Jan Jun-Jul-Aug

29 Mean Change in Modeled 1-year Lag Correlation in Annual Precipitation Multi-year Dry and Wet Periods

30 : A preview of our winters in the future? Lower CO 2 values Abatzoglou 2015

31 Large Drop in Snowpack in the Mountains with Climate Change

32 Expected Transitions in Watershed Types Hamlet et al. 2013

33 Chehalis River at Porter Yakima River at Parker Columbia River at The Dalles Elsner et al. 2010

34 Tohver et al. 2014

35 Skagit River Historical Historical

36 Observed and Modeled Peak Flows on Skagit River near Mt. Vernon Lee et al s 2080s

37 Observed and Modeled Lowest 7-day Flows on Skagit River near Mt. Vernon Lee et al. 2016

38 A1B B1 Modeled 1 July Soil Moisture (percentiles) 2020s Elsner et al s 2080s

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42 Historical Hydrograph The Dalles Canadian Border Much greater flow in spring; lesser flow in autumn 2080s Hydrograph Courtesy of Alan Hamlet

43 Will overall water supply or water quality be a bigger issue? Summary Record temperature anomalies have occurred during the last 1-2 years in the NE Pacific and the Pac NW. Future decades are liable to bring not just warmer temperatures but also probably wetter winters and maybe slightly drier summers. Relative to historical norms, regional streams are expected to have greater flows in winter and lower flows in summer.

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45 References Climate Impacts Group (2009): The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. M. McGuire Elsner, J. Littell, and L. Whitely Binder (eds). Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington. Available at US Bureau of Reclamation (2016): SECURE Water Act Section 9503(c) Reclamation Climate Change and Water Available at US Environmental Protection Agency (2016): Climate Impacts in the Northwest. Available at Washington State Department of Ecology (2016): Columbia River Basin Long- Term Water Supply and Demand Forecast. Available at