CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE HIGHWAY SYSTEM: IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION APPROACHES

Transcription

1 CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE HIGHWAY SYSTEM: IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION APPROACHES NCHRP PROJECT (05) AN ENGINEERING PERSPECTIVE Mr. Michael Flood, AICP, Dr. Michael D. Meyer, PE, Mr. Jake Keller, M.ASCE, Senior Planner, Parsons Brinckerhoff Frederick R. Dickerson Professor, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology National Technical Director of Civil Engineering, Parsons Brinckerhoff 1

2 TOPICS 2

3 TOPICS What about climate change to engineers need to be concerned about? NCHRP project summary Research findings Expected climate change Recommended approach Benefit/Costs and risk Implementation challenges The engineering challenge 3

4 CONCERNS 4

5 WHAT DO WE NEED TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT? Generally, a warming planet and changing precipitation patterns An increase in frequency and intensity of storms An increase in atmospheric temperature Sea level rise and storm surge Flooding, drainage Structural integrity

6 WHAT DO WE NEED TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT? Climate Change will always be a future undefined risk, but traditional approaches are often based on past events. This contrast is the crux of the issue facing the engineering community.

7 NCHRP PROJECT SUMMARY 7

8 NCHRP PROJECT SUMMARY NAS project considering climate adaptation needs and solutions for the U.S. highway system Project objectives Synthesize likely climate change impacts to the U.S. highway system through 2050 Recommend approaches, strategies, and tools DOTs can use to avoid these impacts Prepare guidance documents outlining how to adapt U.S. highways to climate change Identify future research needs and activities 2.5 year project ( )

9 RESEARCH FINDINGS 9

10 SOME OF THE RESEARCH FINDINGS Majority of U.S. highway agencies are not focused on threats of climate change Lack of detailed relevant climate data is an impediment to action National leadership will be critical to consistent actions across DOTs Most agencies begin their adaptation work with qualitative risk analyses of existing assets Few examples yet of adaptation deliberately being included in project design or planning Selective adaptation seems more common Sea level rise, storm surge, and increased intense precipitation events could be the biggest climate threats to the highway system

11 EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGES (IMAGES FROM REPORT) Country divided into regions Expectations for annual increases in temperature across the country, with more pronounced changes in Alaska and the upper mid-west Expectations for changing summer precipitation patterns with a wetter Alaska and northeast and drier conditions elsewhere in the county

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14 AN APPROACH 14

15 A RECOMMENDED APPROACH DIAGNOSTIC FRAMEWORK)

16 BENEFIT/COST ASSESSMENT METHODS Includes probability methodology Statistics and subjective probability Completed in draft, will require review by panel prior to issuance

17 CHALLENGES 17

18 CHALLENGES TO IMPLEMENTATION POLITICAL AND SCIENTIFIC I think we're seeing almost weekly, or even daily, scientists that are coming forward and questioning the original idea that man-made global warming is what is causing the climate to change Texas Governor Rick Perry Adaptation requires best available actionable science, not simply best available science. There is a huge body of scientific literature about climate science. However, users require some translation and a reasonable process to move from science outputs to adaptation planning and implementation USACE Climate Change Adaptation Plan and Report 2011

19 THE CHALLENGE FOR THE ENGINEERING COMMUNITY Determine reasonable methods to address risks in lieu of actionable science Incorporate climate risk at the project level and share/debate approaches and outcomes Develop flexible design options on projects with a range of unknowns Design without precluding future risk mitigation measures: Adaptive Design

20 THE RESEARCH TEAM Parsons Brinckerhoff Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Stratus, Inc. Resource Systems Group, Inc. Applied Research Associates, Inc. M2 Resource Consulting, Inc.

21 QUESTIONS & COMMENTS Jake Keller National Technical Director of Civil Engineering PARSONS BRINCKERHOFF Norfolk, VA