Som Sinha Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

Transcription

1 2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 2040 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading Factors Affecting Future Results in the Investors section of our website at This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved. Som Sinha October 2018

2 Energy Fuels Human Development U.N. Human Development Index 2015 Index 1.00 Norway United States 0.75 China Bangladesh India 0.50 Yemen Nigeria Source: United Nations, ExxonMobil estimates 2015 Energy Use per Capita (Thousand BTU/person/day)

3 Global trends continue to evolve to x GDP Global middle class Billion people +25% demand +1.7 billion people +10% CO 2 emissions -45% CO 2 intensity Africa/Middle East Asia Pacific Latin America Europe North America Source: The Brookings Institution

4 2018 Outlook for Energy Demand Global energy demand will continue to rise through 2040, reflecting its fundamental link to expanding prosperity and better living standards for a growing population worldwide.

5 Global efficiency limits demand growth Energy demand Quadrillion BTUs Share of primary energy demand by region Share of Quadrillion BTUs Other Non-OECD Energy savings Rest of World Other AP Non-OECD India China India China Other OECD Europe OECD OECD United States

6 Energy demand varies by sector by type Primary energy demand by sector Quadrillion BTUs Other renewables Biomass Nuclear '16 '25 '40 Coal Gas Oil

7 Transportation demand driven by commerce Transportation demand MBDOE Growth Index Rail 2016 Marine GDP Aviation Heavy duty Commercial Light duty Light duty

8 Access to personal mobility increases Vehicle penetration Vehicles per thousand people Consumer preference impacts efficiency Percent of new car sales United States SUVs Germany small cars China small cars China SUVs Motorcycles Germany SUVs United States small cars Cars Europe South Korea Brazil China Indonesia India

9 Global fleet increases and diversifies Fleet by type Million cars Efficiency curbs demand growth MBDOE Electric/Plug-in/ Fuel cell Full hybrid Natural gas/lpg Diesel Gasoline

10 Policy and consumer choices impact demand Electric vehicles grow rapidly Million cars Liquids demand remains resilient MBDOE Total liquids demand Plug-in hybrids Battery electrics Light-duty liquids demand Shaded ranges are indicative of potential shifts in demand relative to base Outlook

11 Hypothetical electric vehicle sensitivity Liquids demand by sector MBDOE Electricity demand Thousand TWh Demand increase Thousand TWh Light duty transportation Sensitivity liquids demand Sensitivity Outlook Commercial transportation Other renewables Wind/solar Chemicals Nuclear Gas Other industrial Power generation / Residential / Commercial Coal Oil

12 Hypothetical electric vehicle sensitivity Energy-related CO 2 emissions Billion tonnes Natural gas demand into power generation BCFD Global emissions Outlook Sensitivity Additional from sensitivity Outlook Power generation Light duty transportation

13 Electricity demand grows and sources shift Electricity sources shift Thousand TWh Sector demand Share of thousand TWh Other renewables 2040 Wind/Solar 2016 Nuclear Gas Coal Oil

14 Renewables and gas capture growth Change in net delivered electricity Thousand TWh Wind / Solar share of delivered electricity Share of TWh Solar capacity Wind capacity '40 Solar '16 Wind North America Europe Asia Pacific Middle East Africa World

15 2018 Outlook for Energy Supply What resources will be available to meet the world s increasing demand for more energy?

16 Liquids supply highlights technology gains World Supply by Type MBDOE 120 Other Liquids Biofuels 2040 Liquids Supply by Region MBDOE 40 NGLs 80 Tight Oil Oil Sands Deepwater New Conventional Crude and Condensate Development Developed Conventional Crude & Condensate NA LA R/C AP Eur. Africa ME

17 Unconventional gas drives supply growth Gas Supply by Type BCFD Gas Production by Region BCFD 160 North America Unconventional Conventional 40 Europe NA LA EU Ru./ Ca ME AP AF

18 2018 Outlook for Energy Emissions The dual challenge of providing reliable, affordable energy to support prosperity and enhance living standards is coupled with the need to do so in ways that reduce impacts on the environment, including the risks of climate change. This is a challenge we take seriously.

19 Energy mix shifts to lower-carbon fuels Global energy mix Percent Energy-related CO 2 emissions peak Billion tonnes Other renewables Wind/Solar Nuclear Gas Middle East Africa Latin America Russia/Caspian Other Asia Pacific Oil China Europe Coal North America

20 Emissions vary with policy ambition Global energy-related CO 2 emissions Billion tonnes Assessed Baseline scenarios 2018 Outlook for Energy Assessed 2 o C scenarios Baseline and 2 o C scenarios based on Stanford EMF27 full technology scenarios EMF27-FT cases include CO 2 emissions from energy and industrial processes

21 Assessed 2 o C Scenarios: 2040 Global energy demand 2040 Global demand by model and energy type Exajoules Non-bio renewables Bioenergy Bioenergy w/ CCS Nuclear Coal Coal w/ CCS Gas Gas w/ CCS Oil Oil w/ CCS Based on EMF27 full technology / 450 ppm scenarios (Assessed 2 o C Scenarios) EMF27 full technology scenarios data downloaded from:

22 Significant investments needed to meet demand Global liquids supply / demand estimates MBDOE Outlook demand Passenger Vehicles Impact of ~500 million electric vehicles (~160 million base assumption) Existing Supplies Estimated natural decline in absence of further investment +61 MBDOE Growth to meet average demand based on Assessed 2 o C Scenarios* +97 MBDOE Commercial Transportation Chemicals 20 0 Existing Supplies Existing Supplies Demand 2040 Demand by Sector Excludes biofuels *2 o C scenarios based on EMF 27 full technology / 450 ppm cases targeting a 2 o C pathway (Assessed 2 o C Scenarios) Other Industrial Power/Buildings

23 2018 Outlook for Energy Energy matters As the world s population approaches 9 billion people in 2040, we are challenged to help improve living standards everywhere. We expect that progress will be powered by human ingenuity and the energy that helps make better lives possible.

24 Energy evolution reflects technology, scale & complexity Global primary energy demand Quadrillion BTUs Outlook to 2040: Energy powers expanding prosperity Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil Non-OECD nations drive growth Efficiency & decarbonization trends improve Wind+solar electricity expands by ~400% Oil & natural gas maintain ~55% share, Gas supporting mobility, modern products, and a wide range of other needs Oil & natural gas investment needs Oiltotal ~$21 trillion (IEA New Policies Scenario) Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro Coal Biomass Tight oil, deepwater, oil sands in total increase >100% Unconventional gas up ~100% Demand transitions 2010 in key sectors 2040 lead to shift in global oil product mix Source: Smil, Energy Transitions ( ) Coal Biomass

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