EU - MENA RegGrid 2050 A Decentral Approach for the Integration of Large-Scale Renewables (LRES)

Transcription

1 EU - MENA RegGrid 2050 A Decentral Approach for the Integration of Large-Scale Renewables (LRES) Enerday, TU Dresden April 16, 2010 Christian von Hirschhausen, Florian Leuthold, Jonas Egerer, Robert Wand, et al. Chair of Energy Economics and Public Sector Management

2 Agenda 1. Introduction and Background 2. Approach 3. Results a) HVDC expansion for CSP integration b) Influence of Scandinavia 4. Conclusion 5. References - 2 -

3 5 Theses New infrastructure emerges gradually from a nucleus or previous infrastructure, and they do not appear from nowhere; thus, any SuperGrid, too, will develop gradually from the existing grid. Regional, multi-source Super Grids are more likely to go forward than continental, single source projects. The technical challenges of a large-scale renewables Super Grid are challenging (HVDC technology, CSP, wind turbines), but the more critical issues of implementation are regulatory and political design. The Desertec Super Grid project seems to have chosen the wrong technical design, and it has substantial flaws of the institutional design. The EU-MENA RegGrid 2050 is a more realistic approach to achieving similar LRES objectives; however, substantial institutional, and financial obstacles remain

4 Classification of Different Approaches for a Super Grid Geographic Approach Continental Regional Zweibel et al. (2009): Grand Solar Plan Source Single Multiple Trieb et al. (2009): Characterisation of Solar Electricity Import Corridors from MENA to Europe Trieb et al. (2006): Trans-Mediterranean Interconnection for Concentrating Solar Power AWEA, SEIA (2009) Green Power Superhighways - Krapels et al. (2009): Integrating 200,000 MW of RES into the US power grid Hirschhausen et al. (2009): EEA- MENA RegGrid 2050 Integration of Large-Scale Renewables - 4 -

5 The DESERTEC Project Concept based on Med-CSP (Trieb et al., 2005), Trans-CSP (Trieb et al., 2006), Recent study (Trieb et al., 2009) examines possible HVDC corridors from MENA for EU wide integration of CSP Some unaddressed issues: Source: Trieb et al. (2009) - No incentives to connect point to point HVDC connections to the right nodes (price signals, multiple TSOs involved, national renewable targets) - Special characteristics of electricity networks (loop flows, constraints) and fluctuation of renewable generation not addressed - Interdependency of Desertec approach with other developments not sufficiently addressed (offshore-wind in north sea, balancing power, etc.) - 5 -

6 Agenda 1. Introduction and Background 2. Approach 3. Results a) HVDC expansion for CSP integration b) Influence of Scandinavia 4. Conclusion 5. References - 6 -

7 Challenge: Integrated Economic Engineering Approach Optimization problem: Renewable energy: Engineering: Maximizing total welfare for EU30+ with a DC load flow model. Interaction of LS hydro, wind and solar electricity generation. Economic assessing of HVDC integration for MENA CSP generation to EU30+. Raised questions: What should the process of CSP integration look like? Does a stronger integration of the Scandinavian market change the results? - 7 -

8 Original ELMOD Model of the Western / Central European UCTE network with 2120 nodes and 3243 lines - 8 -

9 Adjusted ELMOD Model of the EU30+ network with 105 zones and 1230 lines 105 demand and generation nodes Simplified AC grid Reference year with 24 states Season Daytime Demand Wind generation Seasonal storage (reservoirs) Objective: Welfare maximization for the entire system - 9 -

10 Welfare Optimizing HVDC Expansion from MENA Three export nodes in the MENA region (Morocco, Tunisia and Middle East) Possible HVDC connection to 30 demand centers in the EU30+ Line costs according DLR cost-distance images (Trieb et al., 2009) - 4GW cables Model obtains the optimal HVDC connections for 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 Evaluation of the HVDC expansion path for CSP integration

11 Assumptions Demand increase to TWh/yr in 2050 Gradual decrease of fossil fuels in the electricity sector due to increasing generation capacities of RES Exogenous CSP generation expansion CO 2 -price 2050: 100 /t-co 2 Escalation rates fuel prices: Oil and gas: 2.5 %/yr Coal: 1.0 %/yr

12 Agenda 1. Introduction and Background 2. Approach 3. Results a) HVDC expansion for CSP integration b) Influence of Scandinavia 4. Conclusion 5. References

13 HVDC Expansion for CSP integration Expansion based on welfare maximization: Electricity prices Transmission costs Grid congestions Demand CSP profitable in 2030 Calculated transmission costs of about 1 cent/kwh Additional gains in total welfare Morocco 1 1.9GW 2 7.8GW GW GW Tunisia 1 1.4GW 4 5.7GW GW GW Middle East 1 3.5GW GW GW GW

14 Investment Analysis CSP MENA Generation: 425 billion Billion Transmission: 55 billion Total Investment: 480 billion CSP Investment Transmission Investment Starting in the early 2030th, CSP from the MENA region becomes competitive on the European electricity market. Investments in pilot projects and large scale CSP in MENA before 2030 has to be financially supported In addition to export capacity, capacity building for MENA domestic markets is of high importance

15 Influence of Scandinavia Evaluation of the integration of the Scandinavian market and continental Europe/ the UK Additional exogenous HVDC connections: - Integration of Scandinavian reservoirs - Balancing of wind power - Shift in electricity prices Change in the HVDC expansion and profitability for CSP?

16 Influence of Scandinavia Expanded inter-connection of the markets shifts prices - Price increase for Scandinavia of 4 cent/kwh - Price decrease for rest of Europe cent/kwh Price difference through better market integration: No influence on HVDC corridors before 2050 CSP profitability delayed due to lower prices also in southern Europe Northern zones Welfare increase outweighs costs of transmission investment in inter-connections Southern zones [cent/kwh] Integration of Scandinavia influences CSP integration

17 Agenda 1. Introduction and Background 2. Approach 3. Results a) HVDC expansion for CSP integration b) Influence of Scandinavia 4. Conclusion 5. References

18 Conclusion Transmission - HVDC connections for CSP integrations to closer markets (southern Europe) - Existence of alternative large scale renewable energy sources other than CSP avert integration in CSP supply, e.g. regions with high shares of wind or hydro power are not supplied Profitability - Dependent on scenarios (2030 reasonable for increasing CO 2 prices) - Possible delay in case of strong integration of the Scandinavian market (price shifts) - Subsidies for CSP in some MENA countries with cheap natural gas availability might be required after

19 Agenda 1. Introduction and Background 2. Approach 3. Results a) HVDC expansion for CSP integration b) Influence of Scandinavia 4. Conclusion 5. References

20 References AWEA, SEIA (2009): Green Power Superhighways, Building a Path to America s Clean Energy Future. Internet: Accessed 05 November Czisch, G.: Szenarien zur zukünftigen Stromversorgung, Kostenoptimierte Variationen zur Versorgung Europas und seiner Nachbarn mit Strom aus erneuerbaren Energien. Dissertation 2005, University of Kassel, Institute for Electrical Engineering Efficient Energy Conversion. DOER (2009): Perspectives on Transmission Needs. Internet: Accessed 04 November Energy Information Administration (2009): Internet: Accessed 30 October ENTSOE: UCTE Transmission Development Plan Internet Accessed 28 June ENTSOE: UCTE grid map Internet: Accessed 27 August Eurostats: Introduction to the NUTS and the Statistical regions of Europe. Internet: Accessed 17 May IEEE (2005) Power and Energy Society, San Francisco Chapter (SF PES): HVDC Systems and Trans Bay Cable. Internet: Accessed 25 September IEEE (2008): Introduction to HVDC Technology for Reliable Electrical Power Systems. Internet: ETK_2008_014.pdf. Accessed 30 August ICOLD International Commission on Large Dams (2007): Dams and the World s Water. Report. Internet: Accessed 03 March Hogan (2009): Acting in Time on Energy Policy. Internet: Accessed 03 November Krapels et al. (2009): Integrating 200,000 MW of RES into the US power grid. Internet: Accessed 02 November Leuthold, F., Weigt, H. and von Hirschhausen, C.: ELMOD - A Model of the European Electricity Market, Working paper EM-00. Internet: Accessed 16 August Makholm, J. (2006): The Theory of Relationship-Specific Investments, Long-Term Contracts and Gas Pipeline Development in the United States. Internet: Accessed 05 November Trieb et al. (2005): MED-CSP study, full report download. Internet: CSP_complete_study.pdf. Accessed 03 March Trieb et al. (2006): Trans-CSP study, full report download. Internet: Accessed 21 August Trieb et al. (2009): REACCESS report, Characterisation of Solar Electricity Import Corridors from MENA to Europe. Internet: Accessed 19 August Willrich (2009): Electricity Transmission Policy for America: Enabling a Smart Grid, End-to-End. Internet: Accessed: 03 November Zweibel et al. (2008): A Solar Grand Plan. Scientific American, January 2008 issue