Director OECD Environment Directorate

Transcription

1 For more information, see Environmental Outlook to 2050 Dublin, Ireland 27th June 2012 Simon Upton Director OECD Environment Directorate

2 GDP per capita ('000 USD) 70 GDP +124% OECD GDP +478% 30 GDP +295% 20 GDP +458% WORLD BRIICS RoW OECD Population (billions) RoW BRIICS WORLD Population (billions) Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, Baseline projection using ENV-Linkages model

3 Population and urbanisation 80% 70% 60% Percentage of Population Urban % Rural % Total population Urban Population Total Population (thousands) 9.2 Bn 70% 10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 50% 6.4 Bn 6,000,000 40% 5,000,000 30% 30% 4,000,000 20% 3,000,000 2,000,000 10% 1,000,000 0% Source: Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision, 3

4 The emergence of 3 billion middle-class consumers will fuel future demand Global middle class 1 Billions of people billion ROW Latin America North America Europe 1.74 Asia-Pacific Based on daily consumption per capita ranging from $10 to $100 (in purchasing power parity terms) SOURCE: OECD (2011), Perspectives on Global Development: Social Cohesion in a Shifting World 4

5 Growth not just a developing country concern Percent of GDP Per cent of GDP Employment growth (%) (Left hand axis) To return to 2007 employment levels Deficit improvement to achieve 60% debt to GDP by 2025 Demographics Debt Jobs Changes in age related public spending to Pensions Millions Long 5.0 term care Health Additional unemployed since 2007 (Right hand axis)

6 Linking economy and environment Population & demographics Capital supply Natural resources Economic growth Energy efficiency Fuel prices Yield efficiency Energy use Bioenergy Land use Local air pollution (under construction) GHG emissions Deforestation Health & environment Climate change Water stress & water quality Biodiversity 6

7 Environmental Outlook to 2050: Climate Change GHG emissions by region: Baseline, OECD AI Russia & rest of AI Rest of BRIICS ROW 90 GtCO 2 e Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from ENV-Linkages. 7

8 Environmental State and Pressures CO 2 concentrations CO 2 concentration (ppm) ppm 3-6 C by Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, Baseline projection using IMAGE model suite 8

9 GHG emissions intensity and GDP Emissions intensity (kg CO 2 e / 2010 USD PPP) RoW RoW GHG emissions 13 GtCO 2 e BRIICS WORLD BRIICS GHG emissions 19 GtCO 2 e World GHG emissions 48 GtCO 2 e OECD OECD GHG emissions 16 GtCO 2 e RoW GHG emissions 22 GtCO 2 e OECD GHG emissions 19 GtCO 2 e BRIICS GHG emissions 39 GtCO 2 e World GHG emissions 81 GtCO 2 e RoW OECD WORLD BRIICS GDP (billions 2010 USD PPP) Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, Baseline projection using ENV-Linkages model

10 Scenarios for the future to 2100 The 450ppm core scenario, based on least cost timing of action A «delayed action» scenario based on Copenhagen pledges An «accelerated action» scenario, implying reduced reliance on new technologies A 550ppm «surrender «scenario GtCO 2 e Outlook Baseline 450 ppm Core ppm Delayed Action 450 ppm Accelerated Action Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, Baseline projection using ENV-Linkages model 10

11 Zooming in to 2050 The 450ppm core scenario, based on least cost timing of action A «delayed action» scenario based on Copenhagen pledges An «accelerated action» scenario, implying reduced reliance on new technologies A 550ppm «surrender «scenario GtCO 2 e UNEP (2010) range Outlook Baseline 450 ppm Core 450 ppm Delayed Action 450 ppm Accelerated Action 550 ppm Core Baseline GHG emissions in 2050 = 81 GtCO 2 e Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, Baseline projection using ENV-Linkages model 11

12 The cost of action is still affordable for now The average GDP growth rate would slow by 0.2 percentage point between 2010 and 2050, from 3.5% to 3.3% in a context of quadrupling of world GDP. Benefits of action are not included in GDP projection Index 2010= Baseline 450 ppm core scenario GDP GHG emissions GDP -5.5% 100 GHG emissions -69.5% Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, Baseline projection using ENV-Linkages model 12

13 Environmental Outlook to 2050: Biodiversity Effects of different pressures on terrestrial MSA: Baseline, 2010 to % Infr+Encr+Frag MSA 0-90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Climate Change Nitrogen Former Land-Use Forestry Pasture Bioenergy Food Crop Remaining MSA Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE 13

14 Environmental Outlook to 2050: Water Global water demand: Baseline scenario, 2000 and irrigation domestic livestock manufacturing electricity Km % +400% +130% World OECD BRIICS RoW Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE 14

15 Water use reduction (per household) 350 Water Use Reduction Strategy: North American Household (Temperate Region) Water Consumption (L/cap./day) Leak detection & repair Water efficiency Rain water capture Grey water harvesting 0 Conventional Low Water Source: Based on Toronto data; OECD 15

16 Environmental Outlook to 2050: Water Nitrogen effluents from wastewater: Baseline, 2000 and 2050 OECD India China Africa Rest of the world Millions of tonnes of N / year Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE 16

17 Environmental Outlook to 2050: Water Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE 17

18 Deaths (millions of people) Environmental Outlook to 2050: Health & Env Global premature deaths from particulate matter and ground-level ozone Ground-level ozone Particulate Matter Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE 18

19 Challenges are so big that we can t afford expensive solutions

20 Environmental Outlook to 2050: What policies do we need? Make pollution more costly Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE 20

21 Fuel taxes, pre-tax fuel prices and energy use in the transport sector, per unit of GDP Tonnes oil equivalent per million USD GDP unit United States United States Petrol use per GDP unit Petrol use per GDP unit Diesel use per GDP unit Diesel use per GDP unit Other use per GDP unit Other use per GDP unit Petrol tax rate, Petrol tax rate, Diesel tax rate, Rotterdam spot price, 98 octane unleaded petrol per litre Source: IEA s energy balances

22 Fuel taxes, pre-tax fuel prices and energy use in the transport sector, per unit of GDP Tonnes oil equivalent per million USD GDP unit Petrol use per GDP unit Diesel use per GDP unit Other use per GDP unit Petrol tax rate, Diesel tax rate, Rotterdam spot price, 98 octane unleaded petrol United Turkey States Petrol use per GDP unit Diesel use per GDP unit Other use per GDP unit Petrol tax rate, Diesel tax rate, Rotterdam spot price, 98 octane unleaded petrol per litre Source: IEA s energy balances

23 % of GDP Environmentally related taxes: benefit the environment, innovation & raise revenues (Revenues in % of GDP, 2010) Other Motor vehicles Energy Mexico United States Chile Canada * New Zealand Japan Spain Australia France Poland Hungary Slovak Republic * Switzerland Belgium Iceland Germany Luxembourg Norway Austria Portugal Ireland United Kingdom Greece Italy Sweden Korea Finland Czech Republic Estonia Slovenia Israel Netherlands Turkey Denmark Weighted average Brazil China Colombia Costa Rica * South Africa * 2009 figure Source: OECD/EEA database on instruments for environmental policy;

24 Environmental Outlook to 2050: What policies do we need? Make pollution more costly Value and price the natural assets and ecosystem services Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE 24

25 Mismeasurement and mismanagement % of GNI Forests & protected areas Subsoil Assets Pasture Land Sub-Saharan Africa Net saving 7.6% Education +3.3% Resource depletion -16.1% Source: World Bank Wealth of Nations Pollution -1.0% -6.2% Net Foreign Assets Intangible Capital Adjusted net savings Crop Natural Capital Produced Capital 28% of wealth -2, ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 USD 2005, per capita

26 Better measurement and better management Net saving 26.2% Savings rate Education +6.0% Resource depletion -16.1% Pollution -0.1% Norway 1,000, , ,000 Natural Capital Net Foreign Assets Wealth Produced Capital Intangible Capital USD 280,000 per capita 16.2% Adjusted net savings OECD average, 6.8% 400, , ,000 Norway OECD % of GNI USD 2005, per capita Source: World Bank Wealth of Nations

27 Environmental Outlook to 2050: What policies do we need? Make pollution more costly Value and price the natural assets and ecosystem services Remove environmentally harmful subsidies Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE 27

28 Why make CO2 cheaper if you re trying to make it scarcer? USD $409 billion 2010, developing country fossil fuel consumption subsidies $45-75 billion 2010, in fossil fuel support in OECD countries $ 44 billion, 2010, global renewable electricity subsidies Income gains from unilateral removal of fossil fuel consumer subsidies in emerging and developing countries (% change in HH income vs BAU) 6% less emissions globally from removal of these fossil fuel subsidies Oil-exporting countries India China Russia Rest of the World Non-EU Eastern European Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, Baseline projection Countries using ENV-Linkages model based on IEA data; OECD and IEA analysis see website: 28

29 Environmental Outlook to 2050: What policies do we need? Make pollution more costly Value and price the natural assets and ecosystem services Remove environmentally harmful subsidies Devise effective regulations and standards Encourage green innovation Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE 29

30 Israeli freshwater use (2009) a Abstraction per capita Intensity of use Israel 220 Israel 86.4 Germany 390 Germany 27.6 Turkey 560 Turkey 17.8 Australia 640 Australia 3.6 Spain 710 Spain 29.2 United States United States m 3 / capita abstraction as % of internal resources a) Or latest available year Source: OECD, Environment Directorate. 30

31 Israeli economic efficiency of agricultural water use, Indice 1986= Valor de la producción agrícola por m 3 de agua utilizada para irrigación Precio real del agua dulce para agricultura (deflactado con el índice de precios al consumidor) Source: OECD (2010), OECD Review of Agricultural Policies: Israel,

32 Israeli Patents in selected environment & climate-related g, technologies number of patents 100 Número de patentes Total Número patents total de patentes Water Reducción pollution de la abatement contaminación del agua El número de patentes está basado en la fecha de prioridad, el país de residencia del inventor y utiliza 32 contabilización fraccionada de las solicitudes PCT en fase internacional (denominaciones de EPO). Fuente: OECD (2011), OECD Patent Statistics Database; OECD, Environment Directorate.

33 You can t manage what you don t measure

34 A framework for green growth indicators Indicators monitoring environmental and resource productivity Indicators monitoring the natural asset base Indicators monitoring the environmental quality of life Indicators monitoring economic opportunities and policy responses The socio-economic context and characteristics of growth

35 Proposed headline indicators Environmental and resource productivity 1 2 CO2 productivity Non-energy material productivity Carbon productivity Resource productivity Multifactor productivity (incl. environmental services) The natural asset base Sustainability index for natural resources Land use and cover Environmental quality of life Air pollution: population exposure to PM2.5 Economic opportunities and policy responses Multifactor productivity Renewable and nonrenewable stocks Biodiversity and ecosystems Environmental health and risks Placeholder no indicator specified

36 Word analysis of Rio+20 Outcome 160 "Future We Want" word occurrences Number of occurrences Source:OECD analysis based on UNCSD Rio+20 Outcome Text: The Future We Want 36

37 What you don t know can hurt you

38 Rise of the mega-cities Population (Millions) 29 mega-cities in 2025 Delhi mega-cities in 2012 Tokyo Mumbai Mexico City mega-cities in 1985 Sao Paolo NYC Beijing 15 NYC only mega-city in 1950 Rio London 10 Largest cities in the world 7000 BC until 1800 Rome Baghdad Kaifeng 5 Uruk Mari (900k) (1M) (1.2M) Beijing Constantinople Jericho (400k) (500k) Ur Babylon (600k) (1M) (200k ) (100k) (100k) 0 (- = BC) Source: citing Chandler, T. (1987) Four Thousand Years of Urban Growth: An Historical Census, Edwin Mellen Press. Mega-city = 10M 38