WATER CHALLENGES. In the Asia Pacific Region. Salmah Zakaria & Sara Demartini

Transcription

1 WATER CHALLENGES In the Asia Pacific Region Salmah Zakaria & Sara Demartini 1

2 CONTENTS Introduction Water Quantity Water Quality Disaster Water and Green Growth

3 INTRODUCTION

4 DAVOS WEF

5 2015 TOP 5 GLOBAL RISKS - LIKELIHOOD DAVOS 2015

6 2015 TOP 5 GLOBAL RISKS IMPACT DAVOS 2015

7 Past, present and projected growing population in Asia Pacific= decrease of the volume of available water resources per capita. ASIAN AND THE PACIFIC AVERAGE OF WATER TRENDS RELATED TO POPULATION (SOURCE: STATISTICAL YEARBOOK 2014 AND INDUCED PROJECTIONS) Water billion/m3 per annum Population size thousands Increase in population 1982* ,3* , 00 1,9% 5556,6* , , 06 1,6% 6042, , , 00 1,1% 5327, , , 31 1,0% 4815, ,7** , 60 0,7% 4498, ,7** , 03 0% 4056,4 * No records of water availability from North and Central Asia. ** Assume constant from 2012 Water m3 per capita per annum

8 Urban population by major geographical area (in per cent of total population)

9 Megacities 1950 (Population > 5 million) New York London Rhine-Ruhr Moscow Shanghai Tokyo Paris Buenos Aires Source: U.N. Population Division

10 Megacities 2007 Mumbai Dhaka Tokyo Delhi s Angeles Mexico City New York Sao Paulo Istanbul Paris London Rhine-Ruhr Moscow Cairo Karachi Kabul Lahore Kolkata Beijing Tianjin Seoul Osaka Jakarta Shanghai Chicago Baghdad Ho Chi Minh City Tehran Jeddah Surat Yangon Bangkok Bandung Toronto Rio de Janeiro Bogotá Abidjan Lagos Luanda Guatemala City Belo Horizonte Lima Urban Population Source: U.N. Population Division Santiago Buenos Aires % % %

11 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON WATER - A WEB OF INTERCONNECTED USES AND VALUES Climate change affects all facets of the system and their interactions Some uses compete with one another Others are complementary Pervasive externalities exist

12 WATER QUANTITY

13 Past, present and projected growing population in Asia Pacific= decrease of the volume of available water resources per capita. ASIAN AND THE PACIFIC AVERAGE OF WATER TRENDS RELATED TO POPULATION (SOURCE: STATISTICAL YEARBOOK 2014 AND INDUCED PROJECTIONS) Water billion/m3 per annum Population size thousands Increase in population 1982* ,3* , 00 1,9% 5556,6* , , 06 1,6% 6042, , , 00 1,1% 5327, , , 31 1,0% 4815, ,7** , 60 0,7% 4498, ,7** , 03 0% 4056,4 * No records of water availability from North and Central Asia. ** Assume constant from 2012 Water m3 per capita per annum

14 WATER POTENTIAL FOR SELECTED ASIAN COUNTRIES (MILLION M 3 ) 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 Total Actual Renewable Freshwater Resources (TARWR) Total Freshwater Withdrawal 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 - Data Source: FAO Irrigation in Southern and Eastern Asia in figures, AQUASTAT Survey 2011

15 100 TOTAL FRESHWATER WITHDRAWAL AS PERCENTAGE OF TARWR Total freshwater withdrawal as percentage of TARWR Data Source: FAO Irrigation in Southern and Eastern Asia in figures, AQUASTAT Survey 2011

16 WATER WITHDRAWAL RATIOS BY SECTOR East Asia South Asia Mainland SE Asia Maritime SE Asia 2% 4% 4% 7% 10% 23% 11% 13% 64% 91% 92% 79% Agriculture Municipalities Industry 8% 10% 19% 39% 81% 61% 92% 90% Surface Water Groundwater Data Source: FAO Irrigation in Southern and Eastern Asia in figures, AQUASTAT Survey 2011

17 Future projections of water withdrawals in Asia (Shen Y., Oki T., Otsumi N., Kanae S. and Hanasaki N., February 2008, Hydrological Science Journal-de Sciences Hydrologiques, n.53 v.1, IAHS 2008) Table 3 Summary of water withdrawals in Asia (km³/year) and population (P, million) for A1b, A2,B1 and B2 scenarios (source: IAHSP 2008) A1b scenario** A2 scenario B1 Scenario B2 Scenario D* I A DIA P D I A DIA P D I A DIA P D I A DIA P ,4 247,9 1608,2 2006,5 3373,9 150,4 247,9 1608,2 2006,5 3373,9 150,4 247,9 1608,2 2006,5 3373,9 150,4 247,9 1608,2 2006,5 3373, ,3 470,5 1979,1 2803,8 4170,7 247,4 1176,2 2138,4 3561,9 4616,5 313,4 740,1 1979,1 3032,6 4170,7 322,9 435,1 2009,3 2767,4 4279, ,7 868,3 2029,4 3363,4 4271,7 446,6 2271,9 2568,4 5286,9 6012,9 450,9 521,8 2029,4 3002,1 4271,7 489,8 645,1 2212,9 3348,3 4840, ,8 1303,9 1872,8 3619,5 3832,3 579,9 2500,2 2768,2 5848,3 6777,2 432,4 253,3 1872,8 2558,5 3832,3 531,4 791,9 2241,8 3565,1 4940,3 * D, I, A, and DIA refer to water withdrawal by domestic, industrial, agricultural, and the total. P refers to population. ** A1b scenario refers to drivers from IAM model, A2scenario to ASF model, B1 Scenario to IMAGE model, B2 scenario to MESSAGE model. The different scenarios highlight possible outcomes related to the development of the different sectors. In Asia (western Asia excluded), water withdrawal is expected to increase under all scenarios except for B1, where industrial withdrawal will decrease after 2025 (due to industrial water use efficiency and technology). In 2055 the population under A1b and B1 scenarios will increase to 4.2 billion and the total water withdrawal will be 80% of the world present withdrawal and 50% of the expected withdrawals in After that time, water withdrawal will decrease just for the B1 scenario.

18 UNEVEN ACCESS TO IMPROVED WATER RESOURCES (SOURCE: STATISTICAL YEARBOOK FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC 2014) Rural % of population Urban % of population % Access to improved water resources in 2012 % Access to improved water resources in 2012

19 WATER QUANTITY: GLOBAL DROUGHT PROJECTIONS Drought in 2010 Drought in 2030 Acute Severe High Moderate Low No data Source: K. Peters, Humanitarian Trends and trajectories to 2030: North and South East Asia, World Humanitarian Summit, July 2014

20 WATER QUALITY

21 N America Europe Japan and Korea Oceania Brazil Russia India China Indonesia Southern Africa * Middle East Ukraine and Central Asia Rest Latin America Rest of SE Asia Rest of Africa Millions of tonnes of N / year WATER QUALITY: URBANIZATION DEGRADATION OF WATER QUALITY. PROJECTIONS IN NITROGEN POLLUTION ( ) Figure 5.7. Nutrient effluents from wastewater: Baseline, A. Nitrogen 4, ,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 OECD BRIICS RoW Note: * In the IMAGE model the Southern Africa region includes ten other countries in this geographical area including the Republic of South Africa, when dealing with land use, biodiversity, water and health. For energyrelated modelling the region has been split into the Republic of South Africa and "Rest of Southern Africa". Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE.

22 N America Europe Japan and Korea Oceania Brazil Russia India China Indonesia Southern Africa * Middle East Ukraine and Central Asia Rest Latin America Rest of SE Asia Rest of Africa kg of N / ha / year WATER QUALITY: AGRICULTURE DEGRADATION OF WATER QUALITY. NUTRIENT SURPLUSES PER HECTARE FROM AGRICULTURE: LEVEL OF NITROGEN ( ) Figure 5.8. Nutrient surpluses per hectare from agriculture: Baseline, A. Nitrogen OECD BRIICS RoW Note: * In the IMAGE model the Southern Africa region includes ten other countries in this geographical area including the Republic of South Africa, when dealing with land use, biodiversity, water and health. For energyrelated modelling the region has been split into the Republic of South Africa and "Rest of Southern Africa". Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE.

23 PROPORTIONAL ECONOMIC LOSSES DUE TO POOR SANITATION (SOURCE: ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF SANITATION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, SUMMARY REPORT, WB 2007) Cambodia Indonesia 3% 16% 9% 33% 42% Health Water Environment Other welfare Tourism 2% 19% 24% 52% Health Water Environment Other welfare Tourism Philippines Vietnam 3% 14% Health 6% 9% Health 20% 63% Water Environment Other welfare 15% 34% Water Environment Other welfare Tourism 36% Tourism

24 DISASTER

25 NUMBER OF DISASTERS AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS DAMAGES IN US$ BILLIONS ( )

26 WATER DISASTERS AND ENVIRONMENT Current and projected assets exposure to sea level rise in South-east Asian costal zones Exposed Assets billions of US $dollars 2005 Exposed Assets billions of US $dollars 2070 South-east Asian agglomerations Projected exposed assets growth % Jakarta 10,1 321, ,59 Yangon 3,62 172, ,93 Manila 2,69 66, ,34 Bangkok 38, , ,21 Ho Chi Minh City 28,86 652, ,02 Source Hanson et. Al 2011 in 4th Turn Down the Heat, WB, June 2013 Ref: Turn down the Heat WB 2013 pages: and (impacts of climate change on South Asia and Southeast Asia)

27 MANY URBAN LOCATIONS - IN HIGH RISK AREAS Of 305 urban agglomerations, 119 are situated along coastlines

28 INCREASING ECONOMIC LOSSES Economic losses in 2011, 80% of total losses for 2000 to 2009 Losses have grown more than 16 times since 1970, while GDP increased by 13 times

29 Kassim Chan Deloitte DID Institutional Study STUDY ANNUAL COST OF FLOODS IN MALAYSIA = AROUND USD 1 BILLION/YEAR 1) The rapidly increasing Malaysian population 2) Combined with increasing population concentration, especially in urban areas Sarawak 16 pax/km 2 K. Lumpur 5,340 pax/km 2 Nat. Avg. 67 pax/km 2 3) Has led to certain areas suffering conditions of water stress K. Lumpur 0.2 kcmpa/pax Sarawak 150 kcmpa/pax Nat. Avg. 26 kcmpa/pax 4) Along with generalised water-related problems, flooding being the most evident Estimated Costs of Flooding in 2000 in Malaysia RM850 million in direct losses RM 1.8 billion in lost GDP arising from lower investment over the previous 20 years Significant but difficult to measure losses due to disruption of day-to-day operations as a result of flooding Resulting in a probable total economic loss of ~ RM 3 bln. annually from flood effect

30 Thai Flood 2011

31 THAI FLOOD 2011 DAMAGES AND LOSSES RAPID ASSESSMENT BY WB, EU, JICA, ESCAP, THAI GOVT, ETC Sub Sector Total (in MILLION USD) Ranking Damage Losses Total % of total D&L Infrastructure 4.39 % Water Resources (0.28 bil) 0.63 % Transport (0.94 bil) 2.10 % Telecommunication (0.11 bil) 0.24 % Electricity (0.28 bil) 0.61 % Water Supply and (0.18 bil) 0.41 % Sanitation Cultural Heritage (0.18 bil) 0.40 % Productive 87.11% Agriculture, (2.21 bil) 4.92 % Livestock and Fishery Manufacturing (30.13 bil) % Tourism (3.07 bil) 6.83 % Finance and Banking (3.73 bil) 8.30 % Social 8.45 % Health (0.12 bil) 0.27 % Education (0.48 bil) 1.07 % Housing (3.19 bil) 7.11 % Cross Cutting 0.04 % Environment (0.02 bil) 0.04 % TOTAL 21, , ( USD B ) 100 % (21.7 B) (23.56 B)

32 WATER & GREEN GROWTH

33 FRESH WATER AVAILABILITY - FINITE Less than 3% of world s water is fresh 2.5% frozen in glaciers in Antarctica & Arctic Of the 0.5% left for human and ecosystems 10,000,000 km3 in aquifers 119,000 km3 net of rainfall on land, after evaporation 91,000 km3 in natural lakes Over 5,000 km3 in manmade storage 2,120 km3 in rivers AP renewable water = 20,527 km3 (billion m3) ESCAP Statistical Yearr Book 2014

34 DIFFERENCE DISTRIBUTION PATTERNS Thailand s temporal distribution 80% rainfalls between May and October Spatial Distribution in Malaysia Mean monthly rainfalls in Thailand (mm) (source: Thai Meteorological Department 2014)

35 GLOBAL WATER CHALLENGES Agriculture about 75% of total consumption 15-35% of irrigation withdrawals unsustainable Industry 20% of withdrawals. Expected to reach 24% by % for hydro and nuclear power 0.5-3% thermal power generation 5% -domestic use

36 ASIA PACIFIC WATER HOT-SPOTS AFFECTING OUR WATER SECURITY ESCAP 2011 STATISTICAL REPORT (Source: UNESCAP, 2011)

37 Population at Risk of Hunger in Asia Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations

38 Water demand and supply gaps cost curve for India: a cost effective solution would be achieved by improving water productivity in agriculture.

39 Water supply and demand gap cost curve for China: effective when emphasis is on managing the rapidly growing demand from industrial and urban uses

40 Country profile: Thailand ( ) Source: daraint.org

41 Country profile: South Korea ( ) Source: daraint.org

42 Country profile: India ( ) Source: daraint.org

43 Country profile: China ( ) Source: daraint.org

44 ASEAN KRABI INITIATIVES PARADIGM SHIFTS Public-Private Partnership should be strengthened through proactive dialogs and establishments of engaging platforms such as government-linked-companies and corporate social responsibility activities. Public-Private Partnership Platform STI Enculturation Mainstream science, technology and innovation (STI) into ASEAN citizens ways of lives. Innovation eco-systems are to be created in ASEAN community at all levels. Due recognitions are given to citizens with outstanding STI achievements as the role models. Green STI integration platform in its transformation towards low-carbon society. Science-based public awareness on environmental-friendly life style is to be instilled. Appropriate technologies and green innovations are to be promoted among ASEAN member countries in order to become competitive and yet remain sustainable. STI for Green Society Youth- Focused Innovation Bottom-ofthe-Pyramid Focus Special attention should be given to the majority of the ASEAN population_ the bottom-of-the-pyramid. In this regard, consideration must be accorded to the outcomes of STI addressing on human basic needs such as foods, habitat, health, and access to information and knowledge. From Dr Kanchana Wanichkorn, STI, MOST, Thailand Opportunities for young people to enhance their STI potentials and entrepreneurship are to be enlarged. Examples of measures to be taken include Young ASEAN STI Awards, cross-country attachment program and seed funding to support youth-focused innovations.

45 THANK YOU 45