Issues of Common Pool Resources

Transcription

1 South Carolina Growth :Our Water Futures - Issues of Common Pool Resources R.H. Becker Clemson University Clemson, SC USA At 2007 Science Seminar Series SC Aquarium Charleston, SC February 12, 2007

2

3

4 South Carolina: Comparison of Population Growth to Increase in Developed Land % 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5.3% 30.2% Developed Land Population Source: (London and Hill, 2000) -- USDA, US Census Bureau and Jim Self Center on the Future, Clemson University.

5 Total Acres of Land Conversion by State, (thousand acres) Rank STATE Acres converted to developed land (1,000 acres) 1 Texas Pennsylvania Georgia Florida North Carolina California Tennessee Michigan South Carolina Ohio Source: (London and Hill, 2000) -- USDA, 1997 National Resource Inventory Summary Report

6 Simulation and Prediction of Urban Growth in the Metro Charleston Area Jeffery S. Allen South Carolina Water Resources Center Strom Thurmond Institute Clemson University CLEMSON Strom Thurmond Institute U N I V E R S I T Y

7 Urban Growth Trends (Past) Population Growth by 41% Population (in Thouthands) Population Growth ( ) Population : Persons in Persons in 1994 Net Growth: persons Average Net Growth: 9000 Persons per Year Annual Growth Rate: 2% Years Taken for Double: Conversion Index 6:1 (ratio of urban area growth to population growth) Urban Growth ( ) Urban Area: Square Miles in Square Miles in 1994 Net Growth: Square Miles Average Annual Net Growth: 8.59 Square Miles Annual Growth Rate: 7% Years Taken for Double: Urban Area (in Square Feet per Person) Urban Area Growth by 255% Urban Area (in Square Miles) 260 Year Year Change in Per Capita Urban Area ( ) Urban Area: 5790 Square Feet in Square Feet in 1994 Net Change: 7297 Square Feet Average Annual Net Change: 347 Square Feet Annual Change Rate: 4% Years Taken for Double: Year

8 Charleston Urban Growth Temporal Series Maps Urban Area 70 Miles 2 Urban Area 250 Miles Urban Area 868 Miles 2 Urban Urban Area 607 Miles Mapped at 5:1 ratio for year 2015 and

9 Driving Factors LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODULE TIME SERIAS MAPPING RULE-BASED MODULE INTEGRATIVE MODULE URBAN GROWTH SCENARIOS FOCUS GROUP MODULE SCENARIOS- SERIAS MAPPING Policy Social Physical Economic Development Constraints Operationalization of Urban Growth Prediction Model

10 Predicted Urban Growth by 2030 Charleston Area South Carolina Urban 1973 Urban 1994 Urban 2030 Non-Urban 2030 Water Interstate Hwy Secondary Hwy 4 Integrated Prediction

11

12

13 Resources at Risk by 2030 Cultivated Agriculture - 57% Freshwater Wetlands - 35% Tidal Creeks - 41% Cultural/Historic Sites - 57% Archaeological Sites - 36%

14 Urban Growth Trends The pattern follows paths of subsidy. Undervalued infrastructure Discounted resources Reductions for individual risk Unintended consequences of past policies

15 Future Urban Growth in the Coastal Region of South Carolina Urban 2000 Urban 2030 Rural Area

16 We Don t Model in a Vacuum What concerns us about the way we grow? - It s about the water - Growth along the I-85 corridor is limited by the surface water availability - We re high in the watershed. We have two of the fastest growing cities in America at our borders. Charlotte needs assimilative capacity Atlanta needs expanded water resources Growth along the coast requires adequate fresh water flow to minimize saltwater intrusion into the aquifer and to provide surface water availability. Do our current policies align with our needs?

17 Whose Water is it? By adopting the concept of Natural Basin Capital Costs of Growth are borne by those who BENEFIT.

18 If Water is Priced at a True Value Value flows into donor watersheds Incentives are possible to enhance water quality Sensitive riparian buffers & recharge zones can be protected through payments to landowners Governmental regulations are minimized Rural economic development has another tool in its development arsenal.

19 Saluda Reedy Watershed 1165 sq. mi stream miles An interbasin transfer from the Savannah of 140 mgd 6 counties 15 towns

20

21

22 Same Issues - A Different Scale

23 Reedy River Falls Downtown Greenville Courtesy, Greenville Historical Society

24 Legacy Issues Lake Conestee Dam ca What About the Reedy River and Other Affected Resources?

25 Contained Within Lake Conestee Arsenic Cadmium Chromium (~no hexavalent) Copper Lead Mercury Zinc Polynuclear Aromatic Hydrocarbons (SVOCs) Volatile Organics PCBs Pesticides Units - pounds 35,300 16, , , ,500 1, ,100 36,400 79,100 1,860 1,320

26

27