Achieving a high share of renewables: Planning power sector transformation

Transcription

1 Achieving a high share of renewables: Planning power sector transformation Building IRENA-JRC DIR C collaboration for methodologies, data exchanges & power system analysis October 11, 2016, Petten, Netherlands

2 Agenda IRENA power sector transformation work Long-term generation capacity expansion planning VRE long-term investment impacts Practical examples of how they are addressed in generation expansion Gaps and next steps 2/15

3 Power sector transformation Planning challenges with VRE in different time dimensions Network incidences Curtailment Transmission grid Designing cost-effective capacity mix Institutional dimension: Policy and regulation to help VRE integration Techno-economic dimension: Assessment studies to support policy and regulation design 3/15

4 High growth margin for VRE First 5% to two-digit share 4/15

5 Techno-economic studies to support policy making Long-term generation expansion Long-term transmission investment Dispatch simulation Network studies Currently in use at IITC Modeling tools: MESSAGE, PLEXOS, Power Factory, LEAP Analytical tools: REmap, Transmission investment assessment, Map RE, (storage assessment), (flexibility assessment) Focus of Power Sector Transformation (PST) Team - Consolidation of methodologies and good practices - Supporting application of methodologies (country case studies) - Capacity building in the use of methodologies 5/15

6 Application examples Long-term generation expansion - African power pools, Cyprus (MESSAGE) Long-term transmission investment - Germany, Dominican Republic Dispatch simulation - Barbados, EU (PLEOXS) Network studies - Samoa, Antigua (Power factory) Currently in use at IITC Modeling tools: MESSAGE, PLEXOS, Power Factory, LEAP Analytical tools: REmap, Transmission investment assessment, Map RE, (storage assessment), (flexibility assessment) 6/15

7 Designing cost-effective capacity mix Long-term generation expansion models - Primarily focused on economic assessment of options - System-wide optimization - Reduced representation of operational aspects - Does not necessarily answer reliability questions Government Energy planning officials System operators Deploying variable renewables (VRE) is beneficial. Our country should adopt ambitious long-term VRE targets. VRE s short-term variability endangers power system reliability There is an upper limit of X% VRE 7/15

8 VRE impacts necessitate countermeasures VRE properties System level impacts 1. Variability 2. Uncertainty Dimension of reliability Generation (+ load, DSM and storage) Networks (T&D) 3. Spatial variability 4. Non-synchronous generation 5. Distributed generation Adequacy Security Firm capacity Flexibility, Stability Transportation capacity Voltage control, Stability 8/15

9 Long-term investment impacts High impacts Firm capacity: triggered by temporal mismatch of VRE and load A system needs to have sufficient generation capacity even during the time of high demand / low VRE availability Utilization rate of non-vre plants becomes lower Transportation capacity: triggered by spatial variability VRE resource availability varies across sites A system needs to have sufficient transportation capacity even if the good resources are far away 9/15

10 Long-term investment impacts High impacts Flexibility: triggered by change of residual load The rest of a system needs to have sufficient flexibility to balance Curtailments lead to low utilization of VRE plants System specific impacts Stability (contingency response): triggered by non-synchronous nature VRE can be made to participate in contingency response at modest cost At a very high share of VRE in an isolated system, operation with little or non synchronous resource may present technical challenges 10/15

11 Practical examples of how they are addressed in generation expansion Improved time-slice definition in line with temporal pattern of VRE availability and load Increasing the number of time resolution Better capture of daily an seasonal variation of solar Alternative definition to seasons (representative days / weeks) Better capture of daily an seasonal variation of solar Improved representation of firm capacity and flexibility 11/15

12 Practical examples of how they are addressed in generation expansion Capacity credit Incorporating capacity credit in reserve margin constraint Conservative representation of firm capacity needs during the peak times Improved representation of firm capacity Flexibility balance Minimum generation rate (inflexible generation) Flexibility requirement (based on sub-hourly change of VRE) and flexibility provision (ramping, storage, DSM, interconnection) Improved representation of flexibility needs 12/15

13 Practical examples of how they are addressed in generation expansion Soft-linking approach with production cost models To validate the results of capacity expansion model To correct the results of the capacity expansion model Other flexibility assessment tools To validate or to correct the results of capacity expansion model 13/15

14 Practical examples of how they are addressed in generation expansion Spatially clustered VRE VRE zones with site specific techno-economic characters Establishing rule of thumb to represent transmission investment needs Improved representation of transportation capacity stability constraints Incorporation of scenarios representing instantaneous VRE penetration limit Improved representation of stability constraints 14/15

15 Gaps and next steps Accessibility to VRE data Mapping of available support tools Good practices of use of VRE data in long-term planning Development of screening assessment tools (flexibility, storage transmission investment) Knowledge framework Regional workshops (Latin America Q1 2017) 15/15

16 Thank you for your attention Asami Miketa