LED Lighting: Coming Opportunity and Challenge. Lison Lee Delta Electronics, Inc.

Transcription

1 LED Lighting: Coming Opportunity and Challenge Lison Lee Delta Electronics, Inc.

2 Agenda Lighting Application Trend LED in Lighting and Market Trend Critical challenges in LED Lighting LED Lighting Business & Opportunities What is next for LED lighting

3 LIGHTING APPLICATION TREND

4

5 Lighting Today Examples Outdoor Office Shopping Galleries Public Road

6 Lighting Today Examples Outdoor Office Shopping Galleries Public Road

7 Lighting Today Examples Outdoor Office Shopping Galleries Public Road

8 Lighting Today Examples Outdoor Office Shopping Galleries Public Road

9 Lighting Today Examples Outdoor Office Shopping Galleries Public Road

10 Lighting Today Examples Outdoor Office Shopping Galleries Public Road

11 11 Market Trend-Today, Outdoor 中國郴州安仁五一路 (2012) Hu-Nan, China

12 Market Trend-Today, Road 台灣澎湖低碳島路燈工程 (2012) Pon-Hu, Taiwan Installation Roads County road.led 200W Township road.led 150W Lane &Harbor.LED 90W

13 13 Market Trend-Today, Landscape 台灣淡水河系橋梁 (2011) Taipei, Taiwan

14 Market Trend-Today, Landscape 台灣屏東鵬灣跨海大橋 (2012) Da-Pung Bay, Taiwan 施工區域範圍 : 鵬灣跨海大橋及引道

15 but it was not always so

16 ..from gas and daylight.

17 ..to tungsten and daylight.

18 ..to early fluorescent.

19 ..turning night into day.

20 Significant market forces 1. Energy Crisis circa Display Screens circa 1980

21 Global Warning Impact Temp. CO2 Energy 資料來源 : 綠建築解說與評估手冊 2003 年版, 內政部建築研究所,2003

22 but lighting has always been controlled.

23 LED IN LIGHTING AND MARKET TREND

24 Why LED Lighting LED Players Lighting will be the next growth engine. Maybe the only one in the near future. Lighting Players: LED is a new light source but can not be easily managed. Other New Players LED lighting is a potential big market with low technology entry barriers. What Can I share today?

25 Lighting Products Consumer Lighting: Retrofit Stylish oriented design Tool free replaceable Regular replacement Portable Lamp: Table Lamp, Stand Lamp Professional Lighting: Installation Functionality oriented design Professional technician involved Mainly fixture products: road lighting, office lighting, shop lighting, home lighting Special Lighting: Professional end users

26 100 Life Circle of Lighting Products % Introducti on stage Growth stage Maturity stage Decline stage Resistance stage The introduction stage is usually long (five to ten years). The growth stage is relatively short, but it still requires more than five years before entering maturity stage. The mature stage usually lasts for an extensive amount of time. The longer the mature stage is, the longer the decline stage and the resistance stage are. The decline stage normally is much longer than the growth stage. The length of the resistance stage is affected by the mature stage and is normally longer than the mature stage.

27 LED Lighting Product Development The three keys to a successful lighting product introduction: Cost (Total Cost of Ownership) Performance Image Unlike IT products, the new solutions and old solutions normally would be available in the market in parallel for a long period.

28 LED Lighting Product Development TCOO TCOO Performance Image Image

29 SWOT of TW LED Lighting Industry Strength 1. Component/Module Flexibility, Capacity and Ability 2. Cost(X) Performance/Cost(Okay) Weakness 1. IP and ID(Brand management) 2. Channel Penetration(Brand management) Opportunity 1. Fast Product/Spec Change 2. Global Market Change(Moving Supply Chain) Threat 1.China, Korean national companies(short-run) 2.Shrinking Market due to Product Long Lifetime(Longterm)

30 CRITICAL CHALLENGES IN LED LIGHTING

31 Structure of the Lighting Market LED Company Dealer Dealer Dealer Dealer Dealer Sub-Dealer Lumin. City OEM Lum. Hyper Market Super M. Light.Shop Elec.Chain CVS DIY Store Hhardware Contractor Consumers PEU Project Owner

32 Structure of the Lighting Market - Segmentation LED Company Dealer Dealer Dealer Dealer Dealer Channel A Channel B Channel C Channel D Channel E Hyper M. Sub-Dealer Electrician OEM Lum Contractor Super M. DIY Store lumin.city 3C Elec.Chain. CVS Lighting.Shop Hardware Consumers PEU Project Owner

33 Structure of the Lighting Market Value Chain Light source makers Component makers Professional channels Lighting product makers Chain Stores Distribution Direct Sales Consumers Professional clients: Proprietor, institution, enterprises, light product makers

34 Structure of the Lighting Market Value Chain Distribution Chain Stores Professional channels Direct sales Channel traits Customer relation Price management Territory Mgt Promotion Price negotiation Display Mgt Product knowledge Customer relation Product knowledge Project management Product traits Consumer products Light bulb Table lamp Light tube Consumer products Light bulb Table lamp Light tube New product Professional product Component Ballast/Power Special product New product High-value product Special product System product Street lamp

35 The Impacts of LED Lighting Market LIGHTING ELECTRONIC Nichia LED

36 Structure of the Lighting Market Market Traits Global market Domestic market Market and product traits - Standardization - Channel products or consumer-based products - Components - Portable products - Specialized specifications - Close cooperation with local governments - Large product size and heavy weight Representativ e products - Lightbulb - Table lamp, work light - Flashlight - Household lighting - Street lamp - Office lighting

37 Weaknesses Strengths Perspectives and Strategies Light source makers Luminaire makers LED-related makers Electronic companies Channel Lighting knowledge R&D Commitment Vitality Channel Lighting knowledge R&D Commitment Vitality LED knowledge Cost competitiveness Commitment Vitality Corporate resource Cost management Mass production Conservative strategy LED knowledge Alliances Lighting knowledge Lack of channels False expectations Lighting knowledge Lack of channels Lack of flexibility False expectations Uncertain of commitment

38 Positions and Strategies Role of Business ODM or Branding Product development High-quality products attend exhibition in pursuit of clients Cooperation with clients to manufacture products Consumer products vs. professional products Market Position International market/domestic market/niche market

39 Positions and Strategies Channel strategies Self-owned channels OEM / ODM Operation strategies Segment by segment approach Broad portfolio approach

40 LED LIGHTING BUSINESS & OPPORTUNITIES

41 Market Trend

42 LED Lighting Penetration Forecast In terms of LED penetration in lighting applications, we forecast based on survey data from leading lighting manufacturers business plan updates. The total average LED penetration in lighting was 1.4% in 2010 and will reach 9.5% in There is high penetration in spot lights due to halogen replacements. Government policies will accelerate LED penetration in street lights after % 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% Bulbs 0.0% % % % % % Spot Light 9.7% 13.9% 22.2% 37.7% 66.2% FL Tube 0.4% 0.6% 1.0% 1.8% 3.2% Street Light 3.0% 4.3% 7.2% 15.5% 33.6% Downlight 3.1% 4.9% 8.0% 15.2% 33.3% Total Average LED Lighting 1.4% 1.9% 3.0% 5.2% 9.5% Quarterly LED Supply/Demand Market Forecast Report Copyright 2012 DisplaySearch. Authorized Users may not provide this report, or any part, to non-authorized Users (internal or external) as stated in the Terms & Conditions. 90

43 LED Lighting Quarterly Demand Forecast by Product Total LED lighting demand was 3.6 billion in Q4 11 and will reach 4.0 billion in Q1 12. Quarterly LED Demand Forecast [Shipments in Millions, 500 x 500 μm Size] 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Downlight Total Demand Street Light Total Demand FL Tube Total Demand Spot Light Total Demand Bulbs Total Demand , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,059 1, ,805 Lighting LEDs Total Demand 2,491 2,709 2,838 2,887 3,039 3,206 3,420 3,665 4,037 4,461 4,967 5,557 Quarterly LED Supply/Demand Market Forecast Report Copyright 2012 DisplaySearch. Authorized Users may not provide this report, or any part, to non-authorized Users (internal or external) as stated in the Terms & Conditions. 91

44 LED Lighting Forecast by Region From 2010 to 2014, Japan will be the biggest market for LED lighting. LED lighting growth in China will be higher than in other areas from 2011 to 2014 due to government policy. Annual LED Lighting Demand by Region Forecast [Shipments in Millions] 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% ROW China Japan NA EU Quarterly LED Supply/Demand Market Forecast Report Copyright 2012 DisplaySearch. Authorized Users may not provide this report, or any part, to non-authorized Users (internal or external) as stated in the Terms & Conditions. 98

45 LED Demand Forecast by Region LED Bulb Japan is the biggest market for LED bulbs in The country s market share is 63% in 2011, but is forecast to decline to 42% in LED bulb growth in North America will be higher than in other areas from 2011 to Due to poor economic conditions, growth of LED bulbs in EU will be worse than expected. 7% LED Bulbs LED Bulbs 10% 10% 63% 10% EU NA Japan China ROW 17% 42% 3% 16% 22% EU NA Japan China ROW Annual LED Bulb Demand Forecast [Shipments in Millions] ROW China Japan NA EU Quarterly LED Supply/Demand Market Forecast Report Copyright 2012 DisplaySearch. Authorized Users may not provide this report, or any part, to non-authorized Users (internal or external) as stated in the Terms & Conditions. 99

46 WHAT IS NEXT FOR LED LIGHTING

47 Lighting in the World

48 Lighting in EU

49 Lighting in US

50 Lighting in Asia

51 Opportunity or Challenge

52 Smart Control in Lighting

53 Smart Control in Road

54 Smart Control in Home Ethernet il100 家庭保全服務 遠端管理 Server 攝影機 電燈 空氣電風扇清淨機 Power Line X10 2-way Transceiver 節約能源服務 影音娛樂服務 internet BlueTooth RS232 to BT Bridge 電燈灑水裝置警報器 Twisted Pair il100 數位電錶 RS232 心電圖機 Twisted Pair 家庭自動化服務 健康照護服務 RS232 血糖計 煙霧三合一瓦斯瓦斯感測器感測器感測器遮斷器 資料來源 : 財團法人工業技術研究院

55 Smart Control in Office

56 Solar LED Integration System

57 Solar LED Integration System Solar Street Light Project with Optoma & Kyocera 200 lights on a highway north of Rio de Janeiro [Source: Optima] Quarterly LED Supply/Demand Market Forecast Report Copyright 2012 DisplaySearch. Authorized Users may not provide this report, or any part, to non-authorized Users (internal or external) as stated in the Terms & Conditions.

58 Solar Wind LED Integration System

59 Summary Efficacy Cost Light Quality & Function Value

60 Suggestion The key factors of strategies: Product life cycle; the 3 KSFs and timing of market entrance Target market specifications/position/cost Channel Selection Practical plan & strategies Strategic alliances M&A

61 Keep Focus Keeping Change THANK YOU