Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government New M4 Project Magor to Castleton Addendum to WelTAG Planning Stage Report DRAFT 2 WORK

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1 Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government Addendum to WelTAG Planning Stage Report DRAFT 2 WORKING DOCUMENT 1

2 Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government Addendum to WelTAG Planning Stage Report June 2009 This report takes into account the particular instructions and requirements of our client. It is not intended for and should not be relied upon by any third party and no responsibility is undertaken to any third party 4 Pierhead Street, Capital Waterside, Cardiff CF10 4QP Tel +44 (0) Fax +44 (0) Job number

3 Document Verification Page 1 of 1 Job title Job number Document title File reference 4.50 Document ref Revision Date Filename 0001.doc Draft 1 22/05/09 Description First draft Prepared by Checked by Approved by Name Stuart Watkins Stuart Watkins Dan Saville Signature Draft 2 16/06/09 Filename 0002Addendum to WelTAG Planning Stage Draft 2 Report.doc Description Second Draft Prepared by Checked by Approved by Name Stuart Watkins Stuart Watkins Dan Saville Signature Filename Description Name Prepared by Checked by Approved by Signature Filename Description Name Prepared by Checked by Approved by Signature Issue Document Verification with Document (ALSO SEE )\WELTAG PLANNING STAGE REPORT\ADDENDUM 3

4 Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government Contents Page 1 INTRODUCTION Planning Transition to WelTAG Report Content 1 2 Vision and Objectives for the Vision Strategic Objectives Problems Context for an Alternative Approach Revised Transport Planning Objectives Appropriateness of the Revised Transport Planning Objectives WelTAG Transitional Arrangements Incorporating the Revised Transport Planning Objectives at the Planning Stage 9 3 RE-TESTING OF OPTIONS Sifting and Testing of Options 10 4 CONCLUSIONS 12 Appendices Appendix A Comparison of Revised Transport Planning Objectives with Original Transport Planning Objectives Appendix B M4 Corridor Efficiency Improvement Measures (ALSO SEE )\WELTAG PLANNING STAGE REPORT\ADDENDUM 4

5 Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Planning Planning for the began in the early 1990s when Welsh Office programmes made reference to an M4 Relief Road around Newport. Present guidance in Wales is contained in the Welsh Transport Planning and Appraisal Guidance (WelTAG), June The aim of WelTAG is to assist decision makers in making rational choices. The guidance states that the appraisal process will need to be applied to proposals which have already been well researched and developed. 1.2 Transition to WelTAG The key principles of the WelTAG approach are that it should be objective-led and subject to participation. The WelTAG Planning Stage starts from problems and opportunities, continues through the setting of objectives, identification of possible solutions and initial sifting, to option development and preliminary testing. The Wales Transport Strategy (WTS), which was launched in May 2008, set out the five key areas where there is the need to make substantial progress. These are: Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts; Improving public transport and better integration between modes; Improving links and access between key settlements and sites across Wales and strategically important all-wales links; Enhancing international connectivity; and Increasing safety and security. Bearing in mind the key areas set out in WTS, this Addendum Report considers whether revised Transport Planning Objectives might be established that would be compatible with an holistic approach to transport provision along the M4 transportation corridor in South East Wales. 1.3 Report Content This Addendum to the Planning Stage Report should be read in conjunction with the WelTAG Planning Stage Report 1. It outlines the vision and key objectives which have been agreed and publicised. It sets out the problems and previously established transport planning objectives. It also puts in context the reasoning for the re-consideration of the transport planning objectives (TPOs). A comparison of revised TPOs with the earlier TPOs is mapped out and the correlation of the revised TPOs and the identified problems with the transport system in South East Wales is tabulated. The contribution of the revised TPOs to the Wales Transport Strategy (WTS) outcomes and the Assembly s Strategic Priorities is assessed. Having established the appropriateness of the revised TPOs, the WelTAG Planning Stage options have been re-tested against the revised TPOs and the outcome is summarised. This leads to the re-visiting of the previous conclusions regarding the outcomes of the Planning Stage. 1, WelTAG Planning Stage Report, March 2009, Arup Page 1 5

6 Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government 2 Vision and Objectives for the 2.1 Vision In response to the issues, the following Vision for the transport system in South East Wales has been articulated: To provide, as part of a wider integrated transport strategy for South East Wales, enhanced capacity and resilience on the transport corridor between Magor and Castleton. 2.2 Strategic Objectives The following strategic objectives of the project were outlined for the public in a brochure distributed in April 2006, prior to public information exhibitions: Social: to deliver enhanced accessibility to services and employment opportunities for people, whilst retaining a choice for road users. Economic: to deliver a more efficient transport capability for road traffic on the primary economic gateway to South Wales, to facilitate growth in regional and national prosperity. Environmental: to prevent, reduce and where practicable offset any significant adverse effects on environmental receptors. 2.3 Problems As part of the, a WelTAG Planning Stage Workshop, held on 24 October 2007, reached a common understanding of problems with transport in South East Wales. The problems identified at the Workshop are summarized in Table 2.1. A series of Transport Planning Objectives was also agreed at the Workshop in order to address the problems and to provide the optimum level of service for transport provision in South East Wales. These objectives are listed in Table 2.2. Page 2 6

7 Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government Table 2.1:.Problems with the Transport System in South East Wales Problems P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 P8 P9 P10 P11 P12 P13 P14 Definition There is a lack of resilience* in the road network around Newport. There is a mismatch between demand and available capacity on the motorway around Newport. Problem P1 and P2 will worsen over time. The existing transport system acts as a constraint to economic growth. There will be capacity restrictions during essential major maintenance on the existing M4 within the next 5-10 years. HGVs do not operate efficiently on the motorway around Newport. There is an air pollution problem associated with the motorway around Newport. Traffic congestion on the M4 around Newport contributes to emission of greenhouse gases. The transport system is at increasing risk from extreme weather events. There is an environmental noise problem associated with the motorway around Newport. The existing transportation system does not meet the Wales Spatial Plan aspirations as a gateway to Wales. The existing transportation system does not meet the aspirations of the local development plans. The current accident rate on the existing M4 is higher than average. The existing M4 is a barrier to intra-regional travel. * Resilience is the ability of a network to cope with sudden changes in demand or operation, eg traffic throughput could be maintained during periods of temporary disruption. Page 3 7

8 Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government Table 2.2: Transport Planning Objectives for the Transport System within South East Wales,, October 2007 Objectives TPO 1 TPO 2 TPO 3 TPO 4 Definition (Note: The timing of these objectives apply from the date of the workshop October 2007) To achieve traffic demand on the motorway around Newport that does not exceed 85% of its theoretical capacity within 10 years. To reduce the number of incidents per week on the motorway around Newport to be comparable with the average for similar roads in Wales within 10 years. To increase the journey time reliability of freight movements on the motorway around Newport within 10 years. To provide sufficient network flexibility to undertake essential major maintenance on the motorway around Newport without causing unacceptable disruption within 10 years. TPO 5 To reduce air quality pollution around Newport by TPO 6 To reduce the number of people subjected to high noise levels by TPO 7 TPO 8 TPO 9 TPO 10 To reduce greenhouse gas emissions per vehicle and/or person kilometre within 10 years. To reduce the probability of disruption by extreme weather events within 10 years. To reduce the accident rate on the motorway around Newport to be comparable with similar roads in Wales within 10 years. To increase accessibility to jobs within 30 mins travel time by car and 60 mins travel time by public transport within 10 years. 2.4 Context for an Alternative Approach The work to date, including WelTAG Appraisal, has indicated that the provision of the New M4 motorway is compatible with all the Transport Planning Objectives (TPOs) that had been set at the planning stage. However, the implementation of the New M4 motorway will be dependent upon the availability of funding. Therefore, affordability is an important issue both in terms of timescale and amount of capital required. Where there is likely to be a period of time before the New M4 motorway could be realised, it may be considered prudent to adopt an alternative (possibly interim) strategy. This approach is aimed at utilising and/or improving existing transport infrastructure and services in order to alleviate problems and, in so doing, improve transport operational efficiency within the M4 transportation corridor. Having taken stock of the existing situation, it is apparent that the problems which were identified in October 2007 remain as relevant today. Similarly, the vision that has motivated the aims of the study is equally as valid, if tempered to a degree by the national and global economic situation. Page 4 8

9 Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government 2.5 Revised Transport Planning Objectives Funding to cover the cost of providing the New M4 motorway is not likely to be available in the immediate future within current and projected Welsh Assembly expenditure budgets, particularly in the context of the current economic climate. Revised Transport Planning Objectives (TPOs) have thus been considered that aim to provide a level of service that is compatible with the framework set out in the National Transport Plan for transport provision in South East Wales. The revised TPOs shown in Table 2.3 have been drawn up following internal study team discussions. These aim to provide a framework within which to test the relative effectiveness of a series of possible measures that follow themes, such as: Public transport; Increasing the capacity on the motorway; Improving network resilience and network choice; and Environmental improvement/mitigation. At this stage there has been no consultation with stakeholders and no attempt has thus been made to make the revised TPOs SMART. However, a comparison with the earlier TPOs has been made, as mapped out in Appendix A. This shows that seven of the original ten TPOs are embodied in the revised TPOs. Of the remaining three: the original TPO 8 relating to extreme weather events is partially covered by route and traveller choice objectives; and the original TPOs 1 and 4 which relate to additional highway capacity and network resilience respectively are partially covered ie the revised TPOs suggest betterment but recognize that full highway capacity is unlikely to be deliverable within an acceptable timescale. In addition, the revised TPOs include a new objective relating to traveller experience. The correlation between the revised TPOs and the identified problems is set out in Table 2.4. This shows that all problems are addressed, often by several of the objectives. The Welsh Impact Areas (WIAs) focus on the three pillars of sustainability, namely, the economy, the environment and society, and are directly related to Wales Transport Strategy outcomes. Table 2.5 lists the outcomes from the Wales Transport Strategy (WTS) and contains an assessment of how the revised TPOs contribute to the WTS outcomes. The table generally follows the template recommended in WelTAG Table 4.2, but has been modified to show clearly where the outcomes and objectives intersect. There are some outcomes at which the revised TPOs are directly targeted (green), some where the revised TPOs will have a positive indirect effect (amber) and some, inevitably, where the revised TPOs do not coincide with the WTS outcomes. The outcomes cover, after all, a broad base of issues, and no set of project objectives could be expected to solve every social, economic and environmental issue in a regional or national context. The long-term outcomes in the Wales Transport Strategy are grouped to focus on net improvement and provide strategic direction. These priorities are listed in Table 2.6 and consideration is given to the contribution of the revised TPOs to these strategic priorities. This shows that the revised TPOs collectively make contributions to each of the strategic priorities. Page 5 9

10 Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government Table 2.3: Transport Planning Objectives for Improving Corridor Efficiency, April 2009 Objectives TPO 1 Definition To improve connectivity within Wales and Internationally along the east-west strategic corridor in South Wales. TPO 2 TPO 3 TPO 4 TPO 5 TPO 6 TPO 7 TPO 8 TPO 9 TPO 10 TPO 11 TPO 12 To discourage the use of the motorway around Newport as a local distributor road. To make better use of the existing highway asset. To increase journey time reliability. To increase travel choice for all. To improve accessibility to key centres and services. To improve the transport network management around Newport. To improve travel safety on the transport network around Newport. To improve air quality around Newport. To reduce the number of people subjected to high noise levels. To reduce greenhouse gas emissions per vehicle and/or person kilometre. To enhance the traveller experience through the gateway to South Wales. Table 2.4: Correlation between Corridor Efficiency Transport Planning Objectives and Problems with the Transport System in South East Wales Problems Objectives P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 P8 P9 P10 P11 P12 P13 P14 TPO 1 TPO 2 TPO 3 TPO 4 TPO 5 TPO 6 TPO 7 TPO 8 TPO 9 TPO 10 TPO 11 TPO 12 Page 6 10

11 Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government Table 2.5: Contributions of Corridor Efficiency Transport Planning Objectives to Wales Transport Strategy Outcomes WTS Outcomes Society Improve access to healthcare TPOs Improve access to education, training and lifelong learning Improve access to shopping and leisure facilities Encourage healthy lifestyles Improve the actual and perceived safety of travel Economic Improve access to employment opportunities Improve connectivity within Wales and internationally Improve the efficient, reliable and sustainable movement of people Improve the efficient, reliable and sustainable movement of freight Improve access to visitor attractions Environmental Increase the use of more sustainable materials Reduce the contribution of transport to greenhouse gas emissions Adapt to the impacts of climate change Reduce the contribution of transport to air pollution and other harmful emissions Improve the impact of transport on the local environment Improve the impact of transport on our heritage Improve the impact of transport on biodiversity Page 7 11

12 Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government Table 2.6: Contributions of Corridor Efficiency Transport Planning Objectives to Welsh Assembly Government Strategic Priorities TPOs Strategic Priorities Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts from transport Integrating local transport Improving access between key settlements and sites Enhancing international connectivity; and Increasing safety and security 2.6 Appropriateness of the Revised Transport Planning Objectives The rationale for the provision of revised Transport Planning Objectives (TPOs) for the M4 transportation corridor is broadly based on the supposition that funding will not be available to deliver the New M4 motorway within the foreseeable future. An alternative (possibly interim) strategy may be adopted to address the transport problems within the M4 corridor. In order to appraise measures aimed at improved transport operations and services, a revised series of Transport Planning Objectives (TPOs) has been set down. These revised TPOs are seen to address all of the problems. However, they are not SMART (and this may need wider consultation to achieve). The revised TPOs nevertheless recognise the practical limitations that are placed on delivery of additional highway capacity and network resilience within the foreseeable future and thus offer a pragmatic approach to the aim of achieving improved transport provision along the M4 corridor in South East Wales. The revised TPOs are also seen to contribute to the Wales Transport Strategy outcomes and to the Assembly Government s strategic priorities. Page 8 12

13 Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government 2.7 WelTAG Transitional Arrangements In the published version of WelTAG the following guidance is given: WelTAG will need to be applied to projects that have already been advanced to some degree, but which have not yet been approved. Any previous appraisal work can be used in the context of WelTAG (Stages 1 and 2) as long as it is still relevant and updated. Figures 3.1 and 3.2 provide guidance on the transitional arrangements for major road and rail schemes. Figure 3.1 from WelTAG, reproduced below, confirms that an appraisal must be completed using the principles of WelTAG. 2.8 Incorporating the Revised Transport Planning Objectives at the Planning Stage The approach to the Planning Stage is summarised in WelTAG as follows: The planning process has to start from problems and opportunities, then set objectives, then identify the best ways of achieving these. An important implication of this is that the planner has to consider a diverse range of alternatives, and not start from an implicit objective of promoting a particular proposal. Given the context whereby a revised set of Transport Planning Objectives (TPOs) has been set down, the Planning Stage needs to be extended so that the options are re-tested against the revised TPOs. This will establish whether the same shortlist of options is appropriate to be taken forward to the WelTAG Stage 1 Appraisal. Page 9 13

14 Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government 3 RE-TESTING OF OPTIONS 3.1 Sifting and Testing of Options Option testing has been undertaken using largely qualitative assessment techniques, with some quantitative assessment where information existed. Quantitative assessment relied on the output of traffic modelling and the expert judgement of transport planners and engineers. The summary results of the testing exercise are shown in Table 3.1. Options taken forward for re-testing against revised Transport Planning Objectives are as follows: A) New M4 Motorway B) Active Traffic Management (ATM C) Road pricing (3p/km) D) Road pricing (30p/km E) On-line widening, 3 lane (60mph) F) On-line widening, 4 lane (60mph G) Public transport improvements H) Non-public transport improvement I) Corridor efficiency improvements WelTAG notes that It is important not to discard possible solutions too early on weak grounds or because of lack of information, but, on the other hand, appraisal is resource intensive and there is little point in developing proposals that are unlikely to prove workable. 2 Accordingly a further filter was applied to the options in accordance with WelTAG, where other tests that should be applied include fit with other policies [ ], public acceptability, acceptability to stakeholders, technical and operational feasibility, financial affordability and deliverability and risks. Table 3.1 is a summary of the Planning Stage option testing. Columns with more green cells meet more of the TPOs. The balance of red and green columns must also be considered in relation to the penultimate row (Acceptability, deliverability, feasibility). Options that are easily deliverable and have a high level of acceptability may not meet the objectives. Conversely, options that meet all the objectives may not be deliverable or acceptable to the public and other stakeholders. 2 WelTAG, p. 41 Page 10 14

15 Transport Wales Welsh Assembly Government Table 3.1: Summary of Planning Stage Option Testing against Revised Transport Planning Objectives Note: Green: Compatible; Amber: Contribution; Red: Minimal or No Impact TRANSPORT PLANNING OBJECTIVES MAY 2009 TPO 1: To improve connectivity within Wales and Internationally along the eastwest strategic corridor in South Wales. TP0 2: To discourage the use of the motorway around Newport as a local distributor road. TPO 3: To make better use of the existing highway asset. TPO 4: To improve journey time reliability. TPO 5: To increase travel choice for all. TPO 6: To improve accessibility to key centres and services. TPO 7: To improve the transport network management around Newport. TPO 8: To improve travel safety on the transport network around Newport. TP09: To improve air quality around Newport. TPO 10: To reduce the number of people subject to high noise levels. TPO 11: To reduce greenhouse gas emissions per vehicle and/or person kilometre. TPO 12: To enhance the traveller experience through the gateway to South Wales. Option (A) New M4 Untolled A new free flowing section of motorway will achieve this. Limited intermediate junctions on New M4. Existing M4 route to be adapted to meet needs. Reducing congestion on the network should improve journey time reliability. Limited scope to introduce bus priority. Likely to enhance accessibility by private car across a wide area of South East Wales. Provision of additional capacity and route choice. Provides additional capacity, reducing likelihood of accidents. Also improved operating conditions. Traffic will be taken away from confined areas and AQMAs. Likely to be some reduction in traffic noise. Improved operational efficiency due to reduced congestion and smaller gradients. Better operating conditions. Option (B) ATM Will not improve connectivity. Unlikely to impact upon existing travel patterns. Likely to improve operations on the M4. Likely to result in some improvement to journey time reliability on M4. Minimal impact. Minimal impact. Likely to result in some improvement to transport network management. Likely to result in some improvement to road safety on M4. Marginal impact as traffic volumes on M4 will not be reduced. Minimal impact. Likely to result in some reduction in rates of emission. Option (C) Road Pricing (30p/km) Will not improve connectivity. Will reduce flows. There will be a focus on shortest routes. Could result in rat running. Reduced traffic flows will improve journey time reliability. Will encourage modal shift. Less traffic on roads likely to improve public transport journey times. Likely to be less traffic which will assist network management. Reduced traffic flows should reduce accidents. Likely to be less traffic and reduced emissions. Likely to be less traffic and some reduction in traffic noise. Improved operating conditions likely to reduce rate of emissions. Option (D) Road Pricing (3p/km) Will not improve connectivity. Minimal impact. Minimal impact. Flow not sufficiently reduced to improve journey time reliability. Option (E) On-line widening 3 lane 60mph Existing 3-lane sections of motorway are approaching capacity during peak periods. Unlikely to discourage use of the motorway. Some improvement to existing M4 Likely to be some improvement to reliability. Option (F) On-line widening 4 lane 60mph Increased motorway capacity. Increased capacity likely to make route more attractive. Focuses on improvement to existing M4. Improved design standards on motorway and increased capacity will be likely to improve journey time reliability. Minimal impact. Minimal impact. Limited scope to introduce bus priority at motorway junctions. Insufficient impact to alter journey times. Minimal impact. Minimal impact. Minimal impact. Minimal impact. Marginal impact. Option (G) Public transport improvements Unlikely to sufficiently reduce traffic on the motorway to have a significant impact. Option (H) Non-public transport improvements Will not improve connectivity. Option (I) Corridor efficiency improvements Restriction of local traffic movements onto motorway will enhance the strategic role of the M4. Limited impact. Minimal impact. Closure of motorway junctions will remove local traffic movements. Limited impact. Minimal impact. Up-grading of SDR and closure/improvement to motorway junctions will increase network efficiency. Insufficient reduction in motorway flows to impact on reliability. Will increase travel choice. Minimal impact. Minimal impact for vehicular travel. Minimal impact. Limited scope. Will improve accessibility. Will improve local accessibility. Some improvement to operating conditions on motorway. Improved design standards, for motorway likely to increase safety. Increased capacity likely to make route more attractive. Traffic noise source originating nearer to existing development. Improved average vehicle efficiency by reducing stop-start conditions. Minimal impact. Minimal impact Minimal impact. Improvement in operating conditions on the motorway. Improved operating conditions on motorway. Improved design standards for motorway likely to increase safety. Increased capacity likely to make route more attractive. Traffic noise source originating nearer to existing development. Improved average vehicle efficiency by reducing stop-start conditions. Better operating conditions. Use of ITS and junction closures/improvements will improve operating conditions. Provision of Park & Ride and public transport improvements will increase choice. Bus priority and other public transport improvement will increase accessibility. Limited impact. Minimal impact. Use of ITS, up-grading of SDR and improvement/ rationalisation of motorway access will aid network management. Increased use of public transport will contribute to road safety. Increased use of public transport will improve air quality. Some improvement for pedestrians and cyclists. Minimal impact. Closure of motorway junctions and improvement to junctions together with ITS and increased travel choice is likely to increase safety. Closure of slip roads will have a positive impact on adjacent development. Limited impact. Minimal impact. Provision of low noise surfacing and other mitigation would have a positive impact. Increased use of public transport will contribute to reduced emissions. Improved travel choice and public transport services will contribute to positive traveller experience. Minimal impact. Minimal Impact More efficient operation would reduce emissions. Use of communication systems to disseminate information and public art and other environmental treatments to create a positive perception. Ratio of Green: Amber: Red 10:2:0 1:4:7 6:2:4 0:0:12 3:5:4 5:5:2 3:4:5 2:0:10 6:6:0 Acceptability, deliverability, feasibility, Subject to Public Inquiry affordability. and affordability. Successfully delivered on motorway in England but overcoming physical constraints would require further feasibility/ consultation. Summary Compatible with TPOs. Makes a contribution, but no additional flexibility for network Dependent upon government policy. Unlikely to be delivered in foreseeable future. Contributes to several TPOs, but likely to be seen as too restricting. Dependent upon government policy. Unlikely to be delivered in foreseeable future. Generally does not contribute to TPOs. Subject to Public Inquiry and affordability limited benefit likely for significant cost. Improved highway standards but insufficient capacity or network flexibility. Subject to Public Inquiry and affordability limited benefit likely for significant cost. Improves motorway design and safety but does not increase network flexibility. Delivery cannot be guaranteed dependent on market. Rail improvements planned years ahead. Improves accessibility but insufficient modal shift to impact on highway network operating conditions. Walking and cycling improvements are deliverable. High occupancy vehicle lanes and parking charges likely to be contentious. Insufficient impact upon TPOs. Statutory procedures needed for slip road closures. Improvements may be phased, subject to feasibility/consultation. Compatible with/ contributes to TPOs. REPORT\0002ADDENDUM TO WELTAG PLANNING STAGE DRAFT 2 Page 11 15

16 Transport Wales Welsh Assembly Government 4 CONCLUSIONS The discussion in this report has been predicated on the fact that, prior to Ministerial announcements, the (including previous nomenclature M4 Relief Road) had been through an appraisal process which pre-empted WelTAG and anticipated its objective-led principles. Since the inception of WelTAG and its predecessors, the assessment process has sought to review and reconsider, in the light of contemporary circumstances, the problems which prompted the scheme and its aims and objectives. This first occurred through the Common Appraisal Framework (CAF) and latterly through WelTAG. Given substantial stakeholder involvement in the M4 Relief Road and, a workshop approach was used to re-examine and re-confirm the problems (see Table 2.1). Starting from these problems, former objectives were re-appraised and re-cast in the light of current policy and thinking, resulting in twelve revised TPOs (see Table 2.3). These objectives were used, in accordance with WelTAG guidance, to test the performance of potential solutions. These solutions drew from work formerly undertaken for CAF and the subsequent re-appraisal of alternatives i.e. traffic management measures, public transport initiatives and alternative road-building options. The following alternatives were tested against the scheme objectives: A) New M4 Motorway B) Active Traffic Management (ATM) C) Road pricing (3p/km) D) Road pricing (30p/km) E) On-line widening, 3 lane (60mph) F) On-line widening, 4 lane (60mph) G) Public transport improvements H) Non-public transport improvements I) Corridor efficiency improvements The options were tested further against the following factors: fit with other policies; public acceptability; acceptability to stakeholders; technical and operational feasibility; financial affordability; deliverability; and risks. The summary of the outcome of the WelTAG Planning Stage option testing is given in Table 3.1. The table indicates that the New M4 Option is compatible with all transport planning objectives. However, it would be subject to Public Inquiry and affordability. Page 12 16

17 Transport Wales Welsh Assembly Government Active Traffic Management (ATM), smoothes out existing operations and may have a positive impact on capacity and safety. Journey time reliability is thus increased. However, it does not increase network resilience. There may be some benefits in terms of reduced rates of greenhouse gas emissions. ATM was thus not seen to be an option to provide for future needs, other than as a possible associated measure to complement options that either increase highway capacity in the long term or reduce travel demand. Road pricing at 3p/km was found not to meet any of the TPOs because it did not sufficiently reduce flows, while 30p/km is likely to be more successful but also more unpopular. 3-lane on-line widening improves highway standards but is unlikely to sufficiently increase capacity. The 4-lane option meets more of the TPOs, despite not adding increased resilience. Neither public transport improvements nor non-public transport improvements were found to solve the transport problems around Newport as independent packages or measures. However, elements of these options may be reconsidered at a later stage to complement other schemes. The adoption of an alternative strategy involving efficiency improvements in the context of the M4 corridor by making better use of existing infrastructure and services with capacity improvements, additions and demand management measures may result in betterment in circumstances where it is not possible to provide the New M4 or wholescale widening of the existing M4 between junctions 29 and 24. The corridor efficiency improvements option comprises a package of measures some directly relating to the motorway with others impacting on other aspects of the transport system in South East Wales. These measures are described in the Corridor Efficiency Improvements Report 3. As individual measures will have a level of risk associated with delivery, an initial broad assessment of the risk has been carried out and the outcome is summarised in Appendix B. The corridor efficiency improvements option is considered worthy of further investigation as it has the potential to present a position where a series of affordable measures could be implemented incrementally and their impacts monitored. It is thus concluded that the following options which are broadly viable and address the objectives and problems should be taken forward to Stage 1 Appraisal: Provision of the New M4 motorway; 4-lane on-line widening of the existing M4 motorway; and Corridor efficiency improvements. 3, Corridor Efficiency Report, Arup, March 2009, Draft Working Document Page 13 17

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19 19 Appendix A Comparison of Revised Transport Planning Objectives with Original Transport Planning Objectives

20 Transport Wales Welsh Assembly Government A1 Comparison of Revised Transport Planning Objectives with Original Transport Planning Objectives Page A1 20

21 Transport Wales Welsh Assembly Government Original Transport Planning Objectives for the Transport Systems within South East Wales Suggested Revised Transport Planning Objectives for M4 Transportation Corridor Objectives Definition (Note: The timing of these objectives apply from the date of the workshop - October 2007) TPO 1 TPO 2 TPO 3 TPO 4 To achieve traffic demand on the motorway around Newport that does not exceed 85% of its theoretical capacity within 10 years. To reduce the number of incidents per week on the motorway around Newport to be comparable with the average for similar roads in Wales within 10 years. To increase the journey time reliability of freight movements on the motorway around Newport within 10 years. To provide sufficient network flexibility to undertake essential major maintenance on the motorway around Newport without causing unacceptable disruption within 10 years. TPO 5 To reduce air quality pollution around Newport by TPO 6 To reduce the number of people subjected to high noise levels by TPO 7 TPO 8 TPO 9 TPO 10 To reduce greenhouse gas emissions per vehicle and/or person kilometre within 10 years. To reduce the probability of disruption by extreme weather events within 10 years. To reduce the accident rate on the motorway around Newport to be comparable with similar roads in Wales within 10 years. To increase accessibility to jobs within 30 mins travel time by car and 60 mins travel time by public transport within 10 years. Objectives TPO 1 TPO 2 TPO 3 TPO 4 TPO 5 TPO 6 TPO 7 TPO 8 TPO 9 TPO 10 TPO 11 TPO 12 Definition To improve connectivity within Wales and Internationally along the east-west strategic corridor in South Wales. To discourage the use of the motorway around Newport as a local distributor road. To make better use of the existing highway asset. To increase journey time reliability. To increase travel choice for all. To improve accessibility to key centres and services. To improve the transport network management around Newport. To improve travel safety on the transport network around Newport. To improve air quality around Newport. To reduce the number of people subjected to high noise levels. To reduce greenhouse gas emissions per vehicle and/or person kilometre. To enhance the traveller experience through the gateway to South Wales. Comparison of Revised Transport Planning Objectives with Original Transport Planning Objectives Revised TPO 1 TPO 2 TPO 3 TPO 4 TPO 5 TPO 6 TPO 7 TPO 8 TPO 9 TPO 10 TPO 11 TPO 12 * Original TPO1 TPO2 TPO3 TPO4 TPO5 TPO6 TPO7 TPO8 TPO9 TPO10 * Additional objective introduced to relate to traveller experience Partial correlation Correlation REPORT\0002ADDENDUM TO WELTAG PLANNING STAGE DRAFT 2 Page A2 21

22 22 Appendix B M4 Corridor Efficiency Improvement Measures

23 Transport Wales Welsh Assembly Government B1 M4 Corridor Efficiency Improvement Measures Page B1 23

24 Transport Wales Welsh Assembly Government High risk Medium risk Low risk PUBLIC TRANSPORT THEME MEASURE No. Title Cost Delivery Timescales Deliverability/Risk 10 Bus Priority at Junction 26 < 1M < 5 years Dependent upon closure of east facing slip roads. 19 Park & Ride at Llanwern 8M - 10M < 5 years Temporary facility planned for Ryder Cup in Could be served by bus initially with subsequent potential for rail services via a new station. Level of risk is low. 20 Park & Ride at Rogerstone 10M - 12M < 5 years Potential bus-based Park & Ride service. Low risk. 23 East/West Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) 50M - 60M > 5 years Subject to further feasibility. Similar system introduced in Swansea. Could serve Llanwern/Coedkernew Park & Ride. 18 Park & Ride at Magor 10M - 12M > 5 years Requires a new station at Magor, which is dependent upon Network Rail. Potential local opposition due to exacerbating existing congestion in the village. Level of risk is medium/high. 25 Parkway Station at St Mellons To be confirmed > 5 years Dependent on acceptance by Network Rail and train operating companies. Level of risk medium/high. 17 Park & Ride at Severn Tunnel Junction 44M 50M > 5 years Dependent upon new access, preferably with new motorway junction. Remote from Newport City Centre for Park & Ride. Potential for Parkway dependent upon acceptance by Network Rail and train operating companies. Level of risk is high. 21 Park & Ride at Coedkernew 11M - 13M > 5 years Requires a new station and/or BRT and dependent on Network Rail and train operating companies acceptance.. Proposals within SSSI. High risk of significant adverse environmental impact. INCREASING THE CAPACITY ON THE MOTORWAY MEASURE No. Title Cost Delivery Timescales Deliverability/Risk 1 Incremental Widening between Junctions 29 and 28 16M - 20M < 5 years All works within highway boundary. Low risk. 3 Increased Length of Southbound Merge at Junction 29A 2M - 3M < 5 years All works within highway boundary. Low risk. 4 Ramp metering of Southbound Merge at Junction 29A < 1M < 5 years All works within highway boundary. Low risk. 10 Removal of East Facing Slip Roads and Widening West Facing Slip Roads at Junction 26 15M < 5 years Potential environmental impact requiring mitigation. Positive impact on AQMA. Low/medium risk. 11 Removal of East Facing Slip Roads at Junction M - 30M < 5 years Improved westbound approach to Brynglas Tunnels. Low risk. 2 Incremental Widening between Junctions 27 and M - 65M > 5 years Works partially within highway boundary. Some land acquisition. Possible environmental impact requiring mitigation. Risk low/medium. 9 Closure of Junction 27 < 1M < 5 years Dependent upon improvement to Junction 28. Medium risk. 27 Hard Shoulder Running/Incremental Widening between Junctions 28 and 27 60M - 85M > 5 years Requires significant lengths of new retaining wall and bridgeworks. Significant funding required. Medium risk. REPORT\0002ADDENDUM TO WELTAG PLANNING STAGE DRAFT 2 Page B2 24

25 Transport Wales Welsh Assembly Government High risk Medium risk Low risk IMPROVING NETWORK RESILIENCE AND NETWORK CHOICE MEASURE No. Title Cost Delivery Timescales Deliverability/Risk 6 Single carriageway upgrade to Steelworks Access Road (Magor to Queensway Meadows) 24M - 28M < 5 years Subject to extant planning permission and East Newport Redevelopment project and delivery by the developer. Risk has increased due to economic climate. 7 Improvement to B4245 junction west of Magor 3M - 4M < 5 years Works within highway boundary. Low risk Intelligent Transport System applications 8M - 10M < 5 years Requires agreement with operator of SDR. Low/medium risk. 5 At-grade improvement to the A48 Southern Distributor Road (SDR) 83M - 105M > 5 years Dependent on procurement route, could be phased. Potential to use existing operator as delivery agent. However, subject to negotiation and hence medium/high risk. 8 Improvement to Junction 28 25M - 60M < 5 years Subject to further feasibility work, this measure needs to be treated as a priority as it is a cornerstone of the corridor efficiency improvement programme. There are significant environmental and planning issues to be addressed. Medium/high risk. 26 Corporation Road Link TBC > 5 years Requires land acquisition, possibly compulsory purchase order (CPO) and possible public inquiry. Medium risk. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPROVEMENT/MITIGATION MEASURE No. Title Cost Delivery Timescales Deliverability/Risk 24 Re-branding of Driver Experience on Motorway To be confirmed < 5 years Subject to further investigation. Low risk. 22 Reduction in Traffic Noise 5M - 10M > 5 years Could be delivered earlier depending on the carriageway re-surfacing maintenance programme. Likely to be disruptive to motorway traffic. Durability problems with surfacing. Medium risk. REPORT\0002ADDENDUM TO WELTAG PLANNING STAGE DRAFT 2 Page B3 25

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