NEXT POTENTIAL HOTSPOTS FOR CLEAN POWER Victoria Cuming Head of Policy EMEA Bloomberg New Energy Finance United Kingdom. African Utility Week

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1 NEXT POTENTIAL HOTSPOTS FOR CLEAN POWER Victoria Cuming Head of Policy EMEA Bloomberg New Energy Finance United Kingdom

2 ANALYSIS, TOOLS AND DATA TO EXPLORE THE ENERGY SYSTEM TRANSITION Solar Wind Other Renewables Gas Energy Smart Technologies Advanced Transport Carbon & RECs 40 North America 90 Europe 35 Asia Pacific 30 Africa 5 South America

3 NEW CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA ($BN) Other Gabon Mauritius Uganda Nigeria Sierra Leone Zimbabwe Ethiopia Kenya South Africa Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

4 GLOBAL CLIMATESCOPE THE CLEAN ENERGY INDEX An index ranking emerging economies on their investment environment for clean energy Enabling framework Investment Value chains GHG

5 CLIMATESCOPE 2015 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA RESULTS DRC Lowest DRC Malawi Mid Malawi South Africa Highest No data Lowest Mid South Africa Highest 4th 3rd 2nd 5th No data 1st, Global Climatescope

6 POTENTIAL HOTSPOTS

7 KENYA ENABLING FRAMEWORK FINANCING & INVESTMENT Policy Offtaker risk Power market unbundled? $ Low risk New clean energy investment ($m) 1,062 PV Biofuels Geothermal Power demand growth, % Wind VALUE CHAINS 4 / 8 4 / 9 4 / 6 3 / 5 5 / 10

8 KENYA CLIMATESCOPE 2015 RANKING: 6TH CUMULATIVE RENEWABLES CAPACITY (excluding large hydro, GW) Biomass & waste Small hydro PROJECT PIPELINE 1.3GW $2.3bn 252MW $350m Wind PV 2.2GW 167MW $10bn $384m Geothermal 139MW $483m CHALLENGES TO CLEAN ENERGY UPTAKE Absence of bankable projects and experienced developers Low availability of local commercial debt Unconvincing feed-in-tariff rates

9 NIGERIA ENABLING FRAMEWORK Policy Offtaker risk Power market unbundled? $ Very low Power demand growth, % FINANCING & INVESTMENT New clean energy investment ($m) 206 Biofuels PV 103 Small hydro Wind VALUE CHAINS 2 / 8 6 / 9 0 / 6 5 / 5 5 / 10

10 NIGERIA CLIMATESCOPE 2015 RANKING: 12TH CUMULATIVE RENEWABLES CAPACITY (excluding large hydro, GW) Wind Biomass & waste Small hydro PV PROJECT PIPELINE 110MW $195m 903MW $1.3bn 0GW $0bn 106MW $244m 139MW $484m CHALLENGES TO CLEAN ENERGY UPTAKE Grid constraints Feed-in tariff cap on project size and overall support Currency pains

11 TANZANIA ENABLING FRAMEWORK FINANCING & INVESTMENT Policy $ New clean energy investment ($m) 89 Offtaker risk Power market unbundled? Very risky En route Power demand growth, % Small hydro PV Biomass & waste VALUE CHAINS 1 / 8 4 / 9 2 / 6 4 / 5 3 / 10

12 TANZANIA CLIMATESCOPE 2015 RANKING: 23RD CUMULATIVE RENEWABLES CAPACITY (excluding large hydro, GW) Biomass & waste Small hydro PV Wind PROJECT PIPELINE 300MW $531m 60MW $83m 200MW $920m 48MW $111m 72MW $251m CHALLENGES TO CLEAN ENERGY UPTAKE Risk perception of offtaker (TANESCO) Lack of incentive mechanism for large-scale renewables

13 ETHIOPIA ENABLING FRAMEWORK FINANCING & INVESTMENT Policy Offtaker risk $ Risky New clean energy investment ($m) 839 Small hydro PV Power market unbundled? Somewhat Geothermal Wind Power demand growth, % Biomass & waste VALUE CHAINS 4 / 8 5 / 9 4 / 6 4 / 5 8 / 10

14 ETHIOPIA CLIMATESCOPE 2015 RANKING: 26TH CUMULATIVE RENEWABLES CAPACITY (excluding large hydro, GW) PROJECT PIPELINE 1.4 Geothermal 1.2GW $2.1bn Small hydro Solar thermal PV Biomass & waste Wind 0MW 1.4GW 114MW 170MW $0m $6.4bn $262m $592m CHALLENGES TO CLEAN ENERGY UPTAKE No robust renewable energy support mechanism Lack of experience with private-sector investment

15 RENEWABLES PIPELINE Eq. Guinea: 5MW Gabon: 120MW South Africa: 13.4GW Lowest Mid Highest No data

16 THE FULL POWER PICTURE CUMULATIVE POWER CAPACITY, HISTORICAL AND FORECAST (GW) Geothermal Solar thermal Small hydro Biomass & waste Nuclear PIPELINE OF ANNOUNCED PROJECTS (GW) Wind PV Oil & diesel Gas Large hydro Coal 0 1

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18 MARKETS Renewable Energy Energy Smart Technologies Advanced Transport Gas Carbon and RECs SERVICES Americas Service Asia Pacific Service EMEA Service Applied Research Events and Workshops Victoria Cuming bloomberg.net bloomberg.net Unique analysis, tools and data for decision-makers driving change in the energy system