The FreedomCAR Challenge and Steel

Transcription

1 The FreedomCAR Challenge and Steel Joseph A. Carpenter, Jr. Automotive Lightweighting Materials Office of FreedomCAR and Vehicle Technologies U.S. Department of Energy Washington, D.C. USA AISI Great Design in Steel 2004 Seminar Laurel Manor Conference and Banquet Center Livonia, Michigan February 18, 2004

2 Outline THE Problem (Hint: Petroleum) FreedomCAR What it Means for Steel

3 HISTORY 1970 (to present) In response to environmental movements of the 1960 s, the Clean Air Acts establish standards for criteria emissions (carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, nitrogen and sulfur oxides) from transportation vehicles and other sources to 1986 (and to present) - Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 establishes Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards for light-duty vehicles Clinton s Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV) between US government agencies and Big Three automakers indicates that high-fuel efficiency (80 mpg) family autos are probably technically viable at a slight cost premium through use of alternate power plants (mainly diesel-electric hybrids), advanced design and lightweighting materials, probably spurs automotive technology worldwide, and provides model for government-industry cooperation PNGV morphed by Bush to FreedomCAR (Cooperative Automotive Research) with more emphases on fuel-cell vehicles, all sorts of light-duty vehicles (not just cars) and limited to USCAR and DOE FreedomCAR expanded to include the Hydrogen Fuels Initiative to explore technologies for producing and delivering hydrogen for transportation and other uses (the hydrogen economy ). Energy-supply industry brought in.

4 U.S. Energy Dependence is Driven By Transportation U.S. Oil Use for Transportation 22 Millions of Barrels per Day Domestic Production Off-road Marine Rail Actual Projected Air Heavy Vehicles Light Trucks Cars Passenger Vehicles Year Source: Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 22, September 2002, and EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2003, January 2003 Transportation accounts for 2/3 of the 20 million barrels of oil our nation uses each day. The U.S. imports 59% of its oil, expected to grow to 68% by 2025 under the status quo. Nearly all of our cars and trucks currently run on either gasoline or diesel fuel.

5 Our Oil Situation (Millions of barrels per day) Source of Oil Gross Imports 59% Domestic 41.1% 1.97 (17.1%) Consumption Highway Vehicles 68% Cost of Imports $25/bbl) $105.2 Billion Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Annual 2002, Vol. 1 Other Non-OPEC 3.41 (29.6%) Mexico 1.55 (13.4%) US Domestic 8.04 Venezuela 1.4 (12.1%) Canada Nigeria 0.62 (5.4%) Other OPEC 0.58 (5%) Iraq 0.46 (4%) Saudi Arabia 1.55 (13.5%)

6 Can We Sustain Increasing Consumption? 30 Annual World Oil Production (Billions of Barrels) Projected Growth in Light-Duty Vehicle Registrations Estimates of Remaining Oil Reserves Billions of Vehicles Industrialized Nations World

7 Why Hydrogen?: It s abundant, clean, efficient, and can be derived from diverse domestic resources Biomass Transportation Hydro Wind Solar HIGH EFFICIENCY & RELIABILITY. Nuclear Oil Coal Natural Gas With Carbon Sequestration ZERO/NEAR ZERO EMISSIONS Distributed Generation

8 FY 04 Federal Share of the Budget FY04-08 Commitment ($1.7B) * Includes EERE ($82M), FE ($4.9M) and NE ($6.4M). ** Includes Omnibus Bill recision passage pending. Hydrogen Fuel Initiative $158.5M Fuel Cells ($65.2M) FreedomCAR $154.9M Hydrogen Fuel Initiative = Hydrogen* ($93.3M) + Fuel Cells ($65.2M) = $158.5M FreedomCAR Partnership = Fuel Cells ($65.2M) + Vehicle Tech. ($89.7M) = $154.9 M FY 04 FreedomCAR and Fuel Partnership Hydrogen* ($93.3M) + Fuel Cells ($65.2M) + Vehicle Technologies ($89.7M) = $248.2M

9 FreedomCAR Vehicle Technologies Activities ($million) Vehicle Systems Ancillary Systems Simulation & Validation Innovative Concepts CARAT GATE Hybrid & Electric Propulsion Energy Storage Advanced Power Electronics Light Vehicle & Ancillary Subsystems Advanced Combustion Engines Combustion & Emission Control Automotive Propulsion Materials Automotive Lightweight Materials Fuels Technologies Advanced Petroleum Based Fuels Non-Petroleum Based Fuels & Lubes Technology Introduction Advanced Vehicle Competition Technical Program Management Support Biennial Peer Review FREEDOMCAR VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES TOTAL FY 03 Approp. $1.1 $2.4 $0.5 $0.5 $21.6 $13.4 $3.1 $18.3 $1.9 $14.2 $5.0 $0.3 $0.9 $0.9 N/a $84.1 FY 04 Approp. $1.2 $2.6 $0 $0.5 $23.4 $13.5 $3.1 $19.4 $3.0 $16.6 $3.9 $0.3 $0.9 $0.8 $0.5 $89.7 FY 05 Cong. $1.3 $3.5 $0 $0.5 $28.7 $13.9 $3.7 $13.5 $2.0 $21.0 $0 $1.4 $1.0 $0.9 N/a $91.4

10 2000 Timeline Strong Government R&D Role Strong Industry Commercialization Role Transitional Phases Phase I RD&D I I. Technology Development Phase Commercialization Decision Phase II Transition to the Marketplace II II. Initial Market Penetration Phase Phase III Expansion of Markets and Infrastructure III III. Infrastructure Investment Phase Phase IV Realization of the Hydrogen Economy IV IV. Fully Developed Market and Infrastructure Phase

11 Potential Hydrogen Technology Transition Pathway Requirements & Impacts Analysis (OFCVT & OHFCIT) Fuel Cell Technology Technology Development and Validation (OFCVT, OHFCIT & Industry) System Development & Validation (OFCVT and Industry) H 2 Fuel Fuel Cell Hybrid Hydrogen Engines, Production & Storage Technology H 2 Fuel Advanced ICE Hybrid Advanced Fuels & Engine Technology Transitional Liquid Fuels Advanced ICE Hybrid Power Electronics & Gasoline/Diesel Energy Storage Technology ICE Hybrid Gasoline/Diesel ICE Conventional FreedomCAR Goals

12 2010 FreedomCAR Technology Specific Goals Efficiency Power Energy Cost* Life Weight Fuel Cell System 60% (hydrogen) 45% (w/ reformer) 325 W/kg 220 W/L $45/kW (2010) $30kW (2015) Hydrogen Fuel/ Storage/ Infrastructure 70% well to pump 2 kw-h/kg 1.1 kw-h/l $5/kW-h $1.25/gal (gas equiv.) Electric Propulsion >55 kw 18 s 30 kw cont. $12/kW peak 15 years Electric Energy Storage 25 kw 18 s 300 W-hW $20/kW 15 years Materials Same Same 50% less Engine Powertrain System** 45% peak $30/kW 15 years * Cost references based on CY2001 dollar values ** Meets or exceeds emissions standards.

13 Weight Savings and Costs for Automotive Lightweighting Materials Lightweight Material Material Replaced Mass Reduction (%) Relative Cost (per part)* High Strength Steel Mild Steel 10 1 Aluminum (AI) Steel, Cast Iron Magnesium Steel or Cast Iron Magnesium Aluminum Glass FRP Composites Steel Graphite FRP Composites Steel Al matrix Composites Steel or Cast Iron Titanium Alloy Steel Stainless Steel Carbon Steel * Includes both materials and manufacturing. Ref: William F. Powers, Advanced Materials and Processes, May 2000, pages

14 Material Use in Some PNGV Concept Vehicles Table 3. M aterial Use in PNGV Vehicles (lbs.) Material 1994 Base Vehicle P2000 ESX2 Plastics Aluminum Magnesium Titanium Ferrous Rubber Glass Lexan G lass fiber Carbon Fiber Lithium Other Total Weight Source: Ducker 1998

15 Conclusions PNGV and FreedomCAR stimulated automotive technologies. Provided successful example to USA of public/private partnership to better define options. FreedomCAR and Hydrogen Fuel Initiative launched to explore the hydrogen economy. These and other factors put pressure on steel s dominance as the major automotive structural material. The ultimate factors will likely be economic and political.

16 Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Bringing you a prosperous future where energy is clean, abundant, reliable, and affordable

17 Back-up Slides

18 The Oil Imbalance 64% Nations that HAVE oil Saudi Arabia 26.4% Iraq 11.5% Kuwait 9.8% Iran 9.6% UAE 6.3% Russia 5.4% Venezuela 4.7% Libya 3.0% China 3.0% Mexico 2.7% Nigeria 2.4% U.S. 2.2% Nations that NEED oil U.S. 24.9% Japan 7.3% China 6.4% Germany 3.7% Russia 3.4% S. Korea 2.9% Brazil 2.9% France 2.7% India 2.7% Canada 2.6% Italy 2.5% Mexico 2.5% Source: EIA International Petroleum Information, December Data for 2000

19 World Fossil Fuel Potential Source: H. H. Rogner, An Assessment of World Hydrocarbon Resources, Annual Review of Energy and Environment, 1997.

20 Renewable Resources are Adequate to Meet all Energy Needs GJ per capita Source: adapted from UN 2000, WEC 1994, and ABB Figures based on 10 billion people Hydro Wind Demand Range N. America S. America Europe FSU Africa Middle East & N. Africa Asia Total Solar Geothermal Biomass

21 Oil and Substitute Costs 2000 $ per boe Produced at billion barrels of oil equivalent Source:Shell, 2000 Unconventional Oil

22 Life Cycle Comparisons of Cost, Energy Use, and Carbon Emissions Cost x $10,000 Energy use MJ/m Carbon x 10 gc/km '96 Camry 2020 evol. adv bod gas adv bod dies adv bod FT gas hybrid dies hybrid FT hybrid gas FC methanol FC H2 FC Electr Source: On the Road in 2020, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Report # MIT EL , October 2000

23 HFCIT Fuel Cell Activities ($million) FY 03 Approp. FY 04 Approp. FY 05 Cong. Transportation Systems $6.1 $7.5 $7.6 * Distributed Energy Systems $7.3 $7.4 $7.5 Fuel Processor R&D $23.5 $14.8 $14.0 Stack Component R&D $14.8 $25.2 $30.0 Technology Validation $1.8 $9.9 $18.0 Technical Program Management Support $0.4 $0.4 $0.4 Fuel Cell Technology Total $53.9 $65.2 $77.5 * Distributed Energy Systems R&D was not included in the FreedomCAR Partnership in FY 2003.

24 HFCIT Hydrogen Activities ($million) FY 03 Approp. FY 04 Approp. FY 05 Cong. Production & Delivery R&D (EE) $11.2 $22.6 $25.3 Storage R&D (EE) $10.8 $29.4 $30.0 Safety, Codes & Standards, and Utilization (EE) $4.5 $5.9 $18.0 Infrastructure Validation (EE) $9.7 $18.4 $15.0 Education and Cross-cutting Analysis (EE) $1.9 $5.7 $7.0 EE Hydrogen Technology Subtotal $38.1 $82.0 $95.3 * With the exception of Education and Cross-cutting Analysis, portions of all other lines were not included in the FreedomCAR Partnership in FY ** Hydrogen activities will be part of the new FreedomFuel initiative to be implemented beginning in FY 2005.

25 Sponsored by: American Iron and Steel Institute