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1 Springer Geography

2 The Springer Geography series seeks to publish a broad portfolio of scientific books, aiming at researchers, students, and everyone interested in geographical research. The series includes peer-reviewed monographs, edited volumes, textbooks, and conference proceedings. It covers the entire research area of geography including, but not limited to, Economic Geography, Physical Geography, Quantitative Geography, and Regional/Urban Planning. More information about this series at

3 Wossenu Abtew Shimelis Behailu Dessu The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile 123

4 Wossenu Abtew Water Resources Division South Florida Water Management District West Palm Beach, FL, USA Shimelis Behailu Dessu Department of Earth and Environment Florida International University Miami, FL, USA ISSN X ISSN (electronic) Springer Geography ISBN ISBN (ebook) Library of Congress Control Number: Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2019 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland

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6 Preface Global population growth is putting stress on land, water resources and the environment. Deforestation, soil loss, desertification and climate change compound the challenges in the Nile basin. Population growth and increase in food, water and energy demand and associated internal social pressures will inevitably lead to water conflicts within countries and between countries. Transboundary or international basins and rivers have potential for conflict between countries which share the resources. Transboundary water rights vary from basin to basin and water right is a function of power order. Indus River, India and Pakistan; Colorado River, United States and Mexico; Mekong River, China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam; Parana River, Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina; Euphrates River, Turkey, Syria and Iraq; Ganges River, Nepal and India; and other transboundary river basins water rights are unique that developed through time. It should also be noticed that land and water conflicts within entities in a country are equally important. There are 261 transboundary basins covering 45% of the global land surface. About 146 countries share transboundary basins. The Nile basin lies within eleven countries with total population of over 450 million that will reach 700 million in less than 25 years. The Nile basin growing land and water demand is not limited to the population in the river basin. In the absence of water resources use and basin management agreement in the Nile basin, unilateral water control and use projects will continue to advance to mitigate food and power shortage and relieve social pressure in each riparian country. The water control projects include out of basin water transfer and may include water trading. Each country cites legal basis or treaties that support its water claims. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is a reflection of current stressors in the basin with far-reaching conflict potential within Ethiopia and with riparian countries. The current political system and constitution of Ethiopia are based on regional ethnic federal structure with constitutional right to secede. This arrangement creates internal water right issues as currently observed inter-ethnic conflicts on land and borders. The GERD has potential for ethnic conflict from inequitable sharing of benefits from trans-ethnic waters, the construction economy of the dam, its operation and associated economic outputs. vii

7 viii Preface Egypt s concern on potential flow reduction is demonstrated throughout the dam-related dealings between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan. Sudan appears indifferent or supporting the dam as it will benefit in many ways. Will there be enough water for all? The three countries have agreed for two French companies to undertake hydraulic and environmental studies to forecast the impact of the dam on downstream. The result of the study has the potential to ignite the conflict between Ethiopia and Egypt. One of Egypt s concerns is the number of years of initial filling of the dam as it will be a time of historical flow reduction unless the filling years are wet years. The longer the filling years, the lesser the flow reduction will be but the economic value of the dam will diminish. The dam is already overdue, and longer filling period could make it economic loss with all factors considered. Drought condition during filling will exasperate disagreements. Optimal power generation of the dam is questionable with unresolved upstream and downstream water right issues. In this book, the hydrology of the Blue Nile basin is presented. The Nile River transboundary water rights; land and water rights in the Blue Nile basin, in Ethiopia; the GERD site and Ethiopian internal condition; GERD design analysis; GERD initial dam filling; dam operations for hydropower and upstream and downstream water rights; dialogue and diplomacy through GERD construction; finance sources of GERD; and aquatic weed potential on GERD reservoir are covered. This book is beneficial for students, academics, sociologists, engineers, policy-makers, water resources and environment professionals, the people of the Nile basin and everyone with interest on global land and water stress, population growth and water conflict. West Palm Beach, USA Miami, USA Wossenu Abtew Shimelis Behailu Dessu

8 Contents 1 Introduction Overview of the Nile River Basin Water Resources of the Nile Basin GERD and the Blue Nile Basin The GERD, Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan The GERD and Ethiopian Politics The Way Forward with GERD Summary... 9 References The Nile River and Transboundary Water Rights Overview The Nile and Water Rights Pre-colonial Period Colonial Period Post-colonial Period Population Growth and Water Interest River Diversion and Inter-basin Water Transfer Dams on the Nile The High Aswan Dam on The Main Nile, Egypt Sennar Dam on the Blue Nile, Sudan Roseires Dam on the Blue Nile, Sudan The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River Summary References Land Tenure and Water Rights in the Blue Nile Basin Introduction Land Rights in Ethiopia ix

9 x Contents 3.3 Land Rights and Resource Conservation Water Rights and Water Conservation Summary References Hydrology of the Blue Nile Basin Overview Introduction Physical Characteristics Topography Land Slope Soils Land Cover Climate Blue Nile Basin Climate Rainfall in the Blue Nile Basin Effect of ENSO Events on the Blue Nile Rainfall Tributaries of the Blue Nile River Lake Tana Watershed Abay at Kessie Beles River Blue Nile at the Ethio-Sudan Border Climate Change and the Nile Basin Summary References Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Site Importance Introduction Major Dams in the Nile River Basin Review of GERD Dam and Reservoir Features Technical Features of GERD Site Selection Hydrology Topography Geology Environmental, Social, Economic and Political Considerations Environmental Impacts of GERD Site The People at GERD Site GERD Site and Regional Hydro-politics GERD Site and Ethiopia Domestic Politics Summary References... 76

10 Contents xi 6 Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Analysis Introduction Dams on the Nile The GERD Dam Design Characteristics Main Gravity Dam The Saddle Dam Reservoir Flow Characteristics and Flow Data Does the GERD Has 6000 MW Capacity? Dam Design Review by International Panel of Experts (IPoE) Summary References Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Reservoir Filling Introduction Flow Characteristics and Flow Data Synthetic Flow Data Generation to Expand Data Range Evaporation and Seepage Losses Sediment GERD Filling Simulation of GERD Initial Filling Summary References Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Operation and Upstream-Downstream Water Rights Introduction Upstream Water Rights and Water Demand Downstream Water Rights and Water Demand Climatic Fluctuations Reservoir Water Level and Power Generation Reservoir Regulation Schedule Summary References Dialogue and Diplomacy Through the Construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Introduction Deals and Concerns on GERD The International Panel of Experts (IPoE) Declaration of Principles Review of the Principle of Declarations

11 xii Contents 9.3 Implementation of Agreements International Consultants Selection, Approval and Current Status Recent Media Coverage on GERD, Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan Coverage on Dialogue and Diplomacy Coverage on Alleged Dam Security Summary References Aquatic Weeds and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Introduction Water Hyacinth in Lake Tana Water Hyacinth Controls Manual Methods Biological Methods Mechanical Methods Chemical Methods Utilization of Water Hyacinth Summary References Financing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Introduction Internal Fund Sources Ethiopian Bank Loans Bonds Lottery and Other Fund Raising Civil Servants Salaries Chinese Fund The Ethiopian Diaspora Summary References Index

12 Abbreviations bcm BNB CIA EPRDF ESA ENSO FAO GCM GERD GSE ha HAD HP I IFT IPRC m asl MoWR NBI RCC SGCC SOI SRTM SST TPLF USBR WUA Billion cubic meter Blue Nile Basin Central Intelligence Agency Ethiopian People s Revolutionary Democratic Front European Space Agency El Niño Southern Oscillation Food and Agriculture Organization Global Circulation Model Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Geology Society of Ethiopia Hectar High Aswan Dam Hydropower Irrigation Illegal Fund Transfer International Pacific Research Center Meters above sea level Ministry of Water Resources Nile Basin Initiative Roller Compacted Concrete State Grid Corporation of China Southern Oscillation Index Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Sea Surface Temperature Tigray Peoples Liberation Front United States Bureau of Reclamation Water Use Association xiii