Incorporating Climate Information and Stakeholder Engagement in Groundwater Resources Planning Milestone Workshop 2 November 20, 2013

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1 Incorporating Climate Information and Stakeholder Engagement in Groundwater Resources Planning Milestone Workshop 2 November 20, 2013 The Milestone Workshop 2 for Incorporating Climate Information and Stakeholder Engagement in Groundwater Resources Planning, a project funded by NOAA/SARP (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Sectoral Applications Research Program), took place on November 20, 2013, in the Sol Resnick Conference Room at the Water Resources Research Center (WRRC) at the University of Arizona. The acronym GCASE, which stands for Groundwater, Climate And Stakeholder Engagement, is used to identify the project. Milestone Workshop 2 is part of a series of workshops where stakeholders participated in a discussion on project goals and results. Additional workshops are planned that will investigate the transferability of the project methodology through presentations and discussions with groups around Arizona. Sharon B. Megdal opened the workshop by welcoming guests and highlighting some of the important themes of the project that combines innovative research and modeling with stakeholder participation. Susanna Eden reviewed the project s progress to date and the objectives of the workshop. Connecting the project team to the stakeholders is vital to the project s success. The project website ( workshop presentations, and documents have been used to communicate with the stakeholders. The study has initially focused on the Santa Cruz Active Management Area (SCAMA) as a case study, specifically the microbasins upstream of the Nogales International Wastewater Treatment Plant (NIWTP) (Figure 1). The Milestone Workshop 2 goals were to set the context for the project with presentations about related activities in the case study area, present the enhanced case study outcomes based on stakeholder input, and discuss issues related to future transferability workshops. Megdal provided context by presenting an update on the Transboundary Aquifer Assessment Program (TAAP). The TAAP includes binational aquifers in Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona on the U.S. side, and is carried out by Water Resources Research Institutes in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey. The Arizona-Sonora component has been conducted through a strong partnership with Mexican collaborators. Bilingual materials, including a website have been produced. The Arizona-Sonora TAAP has produced two binational aquifer reports that bring together the state of knowledge on the Santa Cruz and San Pedro aquifers in a descriptive and conceptual form as a single informative resource. These are in review prior to release. The production of maps is vital to achieving TAAP goals and creating informative mapping resources that do not end at the international boundary is a cornerstone of the TAAP efforts. However, no federal funding has been provided since Fiscal Year 2010, and further work awaits additional funding. This work also has contributed to the global effort for worldwide transboundary aquifer assessments. 1

2 Regarding the Santa Cruz River basin, key issues include the effluent flows from NIWTP, water quality, water quantity, and aquifer recharge. Accomplishments in bi-national cooperation on surface water, like Minute 319, have come from intensive stakeholder engagement. Great strides are being made, with the environment receiving greater attention. There is optimism that collaborative efforts can bring about more cooperative groundwater management as well. Eve Halper, a Natural Resource Specialist with the United States Bureau of Reclamation (BOR), presented on the SCAMA/Nogales Water Storage Study, an ongoing study since The geology of concern in the study area is the Young Alluvium, which aligns with the Santa Cruz River and its major tributaries. Municipal and irrigation wells also align with the river. Water supply shortages may occur during extended drought conditions. To address the problem, the BOR, Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR), and the City of Nogales are collaborating in a cost sharing partnership to create an appraisal study of the situation. The Problem Statement (drafted January 20, 2009), identified limited storage during times of drought. Solution approaches include demand management, recharge, constructed dams, and no action. The appraisal study intends to look at everything from all different angles regarding groundwater storage, recharge and reuse. Political and legal obstacles are considered; the effectiveness and significance of alternatives in meeting goals are considered. The benefits and effects on biological and cultural resources are also considered, and a matrix of assessment alternatives was created that permits evaluation based on multiple criteria. So far, specific solutions include a reuse pipeline to irrigate turf on parks and golf courses and recharge of stormwater and effluent in the arroyos. The study is progressing. Jeff Tannler, ADWR Statewide Active Management Area (AMA) Director, presented an introduction to AMAs and some of their recent activity. ADWR is working with stakeholders to develop the 4 th of 5 management plans that will be developed for each AMA by the year The Prescott AMA s 4 th Management Plan is available in draft; the Tucson AMA s 4 th Management Plan is due next. Each AMA has a five member Groundwater User Advisory Committee (GUAC); members are appointed by the Governor based on interest and knowledge of water issues. The GUAC reviews draft management plans and meets about five times per year. Past management plans have addressed management issues on an AMA-wide basis. At this time, ADWR and the AMAs are developing the Enhanced Aquifer Management Program, which focuses on local water level declines. Ideally, the recharge and recovery processes would occur in the same location. Program planners are looking into the incentives and disincentives to do so. Varying the percentage cut to the aquifer with the 2

3 location of the recovery wells is being considered. A statewide stakeholder process is underway and available by webinar: Keith Nelson, ADWR Groundwater Modeling Section Manager, presented on planned improvements to ADWR groundwater modeling. The model currently consists of the northern area (downstream of NIWTP) and the southern area (micro-basins), each receiving individual calibration. The cyclical system (flood, recharge, water table rise, and decline) follows the seasons and El Niño s less regular cycles. For planning purposes, the magnitude, duration, and frequency of such cycles is most important. Understanding the pumping regimes is also important, and so is the relationship between surface flow and groundwater during flood and recharge conditions. The planned model includes augmented pumping schemes and NIWTP upgrades, combines the northern and southern regions, and adds the Potrero region. There are smaller grids near the river because more refined information is important to modeling this area. Model features in detail can be found in online technical reports. Hsin-I Chang, Research Associate with the University of Arizona Department of Atmospheric Sciences, presented on climate and hydrologic projections in the Southwest region. Global models have not represented Southwestern historic conditions well. Downscaling global models is a process to enhance the local topographic detail and create a more realistic climate picture. Eight models were analyzed for winter and summer precipitation. For the southwest climate, summer precipitation is projected to decrease and temperature increase. Winter temperature also increases, but precipitation does not appear to change. New work will use the recently released fifth IPCC Climate Assessment Report (AR5) databases to improve regional projections. AR5 shows the precipitation outlook as less dire than projected by AR4. Jacob Prietto presented on riparian thresholds that could be used to address the Santa Cruz AMA s emerging challenge in protecting core aquatic and riparian habitats. Initial riparian threshold research utilized studies done in the Upper San Pedro Basin because of the greater quantity of studies available and its similar hydrologic characteristics to the Upper Santa Cruz Basin. New research utilized a product developed by Water RAPIDS (Kelly Mott Lacroix, klacroix@ .arizona.edu, wrrc.arizona.edu/waterrapids). The database of 111 studies as of July 2013 shows relationships between ecological elements and hydrologic elements. For example, the database provides quantitative information on the ecological flow needs of cottonwoods. Prietto suggested thresholds for considerations to preserve adult cottonwood, willow, and mesquite from excessive groundwater 3

4 and rate of decline. For cottonwood and willow the thresholds were estimated at 2-3 m in depth and an abrupt 1 m decline. Eylon Shamir recapped his description of the modeling framework and presented new results on the case study. The study area consists of four sub-regions, where there is a close interaction between streamflow and groundwater levels. The data from climate projections were used to modify the modeling framework s rainfall generator. For future conditions, the statistical distribution used to determine wet, medium and dry conditions were changed, as were other rainfall characteristics used by the rainfall generator. The initial results show a clear difference between the historic observations and the future projections. When comparing all the thresholds, the reliability graphs show that the future will have lower water supply reliability. Results were illustrated in a variety of ways. Participants recalled other climate projections they have heard in other arenas, which do not exactly align with those utilized in GCASE. They had heard there will be fewer, more-intense rainfall events, which will reduce the opportunity for recharge. These conditions make for more difficult decisions for water planners. In SCAMA, it is widely understood that the micro-basins cannot be relied on for the entire pumping demand throughout the year. The duration of low water level in the micro-basins is a concern amongst stakeholders. Results display how often the threshold will be exceeded by a given number of days. Another concern addressed was the maximum amount of pumping possible before reaching a threshold. Further inquiries considered the maximum depths to water when the pumping goal is reached with no threshold. A question arose regarding the monsoons starting later. Could this be one reason for reduced summer precipitation in the future, or will we see a shift in the peak precipitation resulting from a delayed season? The volume of precipitation may be the same, only the distribution is projected to be different. Next steps in the GCASE project were discussed. The workshops are intended to bring the project team together with stakeholders to gain insight and share information with each other. Documentation is a vital part of the process, as the number of ideas shared is plentiful. Utilizing the Arizona Cooperative Extension to distribute information was suggested by the team; incorporating the services of a third-party science news reporter was suggested by a participant. A facilitated discussion, led by Megdal and Karletta Chief, focused on how the methodology could be transferred to other locations. In the next phase of GCASE, the project will be presented in other geographical regions. The discussion continued about the criteria for suitable locations, areas of interest, and what portions of the workshop are vital to the transferability of the framework. Regions for the transferability workshops include: Prescott, Agua Fria, Ciennega Creek, Tanque Verde Valley, and downstream on the Santa Cruz River. 4

5 Natural variability must be an important component of planning water supply to the region. Future actions, products, and the best ways to communicate were discussed. A user interface that has a dashboard with modifiable variables, model runs and viewable outputs was suggested, but would require more resources than the NOAA grant provides. The products to be delivered must highlight the political and technical challenges. The team acknowledged that the workshop maintains a full agenda and technical presentations may need more time for explanatory material. The technical discussions about the modeling framework are very valuable and may require a dedicated workshop. It is important, however, that the material must be presentable to multiple audiences. Simplified material could give a rough idea, but would require a disclaimer acknowledging their simplified nature. Making the link between science and management is a GCASE objective. Moving forward, it is important to not make the GCASE project just another study. It needs to be utilized as an informative resource for water planners and managers. The modeling framework in the case study works well because of the dynamic response relationship between the rainfall and recharge. Most regions in the state, however, do not have the same quick response; response may be observed over the decadal scale. Regions that would qualify for a transferability opportunity should have an existing groundwater model. GCASE would provide the framework for addressing water management, not the actual model. The workshop concluded by discussing the next immediate steps of the transferability phase of GCASE. It was suggested that stakeholders present at the workshop could critique the content of the transferability workshops beforehand. Two short workshops were suggested: one for the technical discussion of the model and one aimed at a broad audience where transferability workshop materials can be critiqued. The GCASE team will determine the locations of the transferability workshops and will schedule a series of workshops early in

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7 Groundwater, Climate And Stakeholder Engagement (GCASE) NOAA SARP Award Number: NA12OAR wrrc.arizona.edu/gcase 10:00 am Welcome and Introductions Milestone Workshop 2 Sol Resnick Conference Room Water Resources Research Center 350 North Campbell Ave. Tucson, AZ (520) AGENDA November 20, 2013 Sharon B. Megdal, Director, Water Resources Research Center, University of Arizona 10:10 am Workshop Objectives & Review Progress to Date Susanna Eden, Assistant Director, Water Resources Research Center, University of Arizona 10:20 am Update on Transboundary Aquifer Assessment Program (TAAP) Sharon B. Megdal, Director, Water Resources Research Center, University of Arizona 10:40 am Santa Cruz AMA/Nogales Water Storage Study Eve Halper, Natural Resource Specialist, United States Bureau of Reclamation 11:00 am Active Management Area 4th Management Plans & GUAC Activity Jeff Tannler, Area Director, Arizona Department of Water Resources 11:10 am Recent Improvements in ADWR Groundwater Modeling Keith Nelson, Hydrologist, Arizona Department of Water Resources 11:25 am Southwest Regional Climate and Hydrologic Projections Hsin-I Chang, Research Associate, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona 11:40 am Riparian Thresholds: A Product of Water RAPIDS (wrrc.arizona.edu/waterrapids) 11:50 am Lunch Jacob Prietto, Graduate Outreach Assistant, Water Resources Research Center, University of Arizona 12:30 pm Recap of Initial Results and Presentation of New Results from Case Study Eylon Shamir, Hydrologic Engineer, Hydrologic Research Center 1:20 pm Discussion: GCASE Project Next Phase Sharon B. Megdal, Director, Water Resources Research Center, University of Arizona Karletta Chief, Associate Professor, Department of Soil, Water, & Environmental Science 2:20 pm Wrap-up and Next Steps Eylon Shamir, Hydrologic Engineer, Hydrologic Research Center Susanna Eden, Assistant Director, Water Resources Research Center, University of Arizona 7