Digging Deeper: Integrating Multi-Disciplinary Expert Knowledge into Resilient System Decision-Making

Transcription

1 Digging Deeper: Integrating Multi-Disciplinary Expert Knowledge into Resilient System Decision-Making Jessica Frank 1, Kristen Naney 2, Liem Tran 3, Timothy Barzyk 4, Betsy Smith 5 1 ORISE Fellow, National Exposure Research Laboratory Office of Research and Development, U.S. EPA 2 North Carolina A&T State University, Center for Outreach in Alzheimer s, Aging, & Community Health, Greensboro, NC; 3 University of Tennessee, Department of Geography, Knoxville, TN; 4 National Exposure Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, U.S. EPA 5 Retired, National Exposure Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, System Exposure Division Wednesday, September 18, 2018

2 Outline Set-up for Live Poll (2 minutes) Context (10 minutes) Background Methods Brief Introduction to Model Live Poll (12 minutes) Discussion / Questions (5 minutes)

3 Live Poll

4 Goals Conduct a System Analysis to Inform Resilient Decision- Making in Port Communities Use Methodology that is: Adaptable Easy to Use Integrates Stakeholder Perspectives Not Resource & Time Intensive Identify Factors within Port Community System that are Drivers of Resiliency

5 Methods Analytic Network Process Accommodates: System Analysis Stakeholder Engagement Adaptability Qualitative & Quantitative Relatively Non-Demanding on Time and Resources Parameterize and Prioritize Variables

6 Systems Analysis A holistic analysis approach that focuses on how parts of a system are interrelated. Systems Approach Whole Feedback & Interdependence Transdisciplinary Cross-Sector Perspectives Traditional Part Linear Discipline/Sector Silos Optimize Goals in Isolation

7 Systems Analysis Shifting Perspective

8 Systems Analysis Shifting Perspective Analytic Decision Model Image credit:

9 TIME & SPACE Resilient System Social Mobility Inclusion Capital Environmental Built Natural Economic Stability Efficiency RESILIENT DECISION-MAKING

10 Why Port Communities? Hazardous Materials Clustering of Industry System Convergence Intermodal Transport Coastal Vulnerability Vulnerable Populations

11 Methods Expert Stakeholder Engagement Variable Refinement System Mapping System Maps Decision Model Expert Elicitation Pairwise Rankings EXPERT S T A K E H O L D E R S

12 Model Pairwise Comparisons Nodes: 63 Cluster: 97 Total: 160

13 Model Connections

14 Pairwise Comparisons Nodes: 63 Cluster: 97 Total: 160 Super Decisions Interface

15 Cluster Comparisons

16 Live Poll

17 Live Poll Select your current affiliation: A) Government B) Community Group C) Academic D) Commercial/Private E) Other

18 Live Poll Result Select your current affiliation: a) Government 65% b) Community Group 5% c) Academic 5% d) Commercial/Private 15% e) Other 10%

19 Live Poll Environmental Health is defined as environmental hazards, quality, and stressor exposure for both natural and built environments Rank the variables in the order that the ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH cluster has the strongest influence. 1) Disaster Resiliency 2) Energy Use & Production 3) Economic Growth 4) Port Operations 5) Community Wellness 6) Environmental (Quality, Hazards, Exposures)

20 Live Poll How confident are you with your rankings? A) Extremely Confident B) Very Confident C) Moderately Confident D) Slightly Confident E) Not Confident

21 Live Poll Disaster Resiliency is defined as redundant community infrastructure, buffering ecosystem services, diversified energy resources, land-use trade-offs. Rank the variables in the order that DISASTER RESILIENCY has the strongest influence. 1) Disaster Resiliency 2) Energy Use & Production 3) Economic Growth 4) Port Operations 5) Community Wellness 6) Environmental (Quality, Hazards, Exposures)

22 Live Poll How confident are you with your rankings? A) Extremely Confident B) Very Confident C) Moderately Confident D) Slightly Confident E) Not Confident

23 Live Poll Community Wellness is defined as financial security, as well as health & safety. Rank the variables in the order that COMMUNITY WELLNESS has the strongest influence. 1) Disaster Resiliency 2) Energy Use & Production 3) Economic Growth 4) Port Operations 5) Community Wellness 6) Environmental (Quality, Hazards, Exposures)

24 Live Poll How confident are you with your rankings? A) Extremely Confident B) Very Confident C) Moderately Confident D) Slightly Confident E) Not Confident

25 Live Poll Energy is defined as use & production. Rank the variables in the order that ENERGY has the strongest influence. 1) Disaster Resiliency 2) Energy Use & Production 3) Economic Growth 4) Port Operations 5) Community Wellness 6) Environmental (Quality, Hazards, Exposures)

26 Live Poll How confident are you with your rankings? A) Extremely Confident B) Very Confident C) Moderately Confident D) Slightly Confident E) Not Confident

27 Live Poll Economic Growth is defined as Consumer Price Index, Manufacturing Trade Inventory Sales Ratio, Producer Price Index, Unemployment. Rank the variables in the order that ECONOMIC GROWTH has the strongest influence. 1) Disaster Resiliency 2) Energy Use & Production 3) Economic Growth 4) Port Operations 5) Community Wellness 6) Environmental (Quality, Hazards, Exposures)

28 Live Poll How confident are you with your rankings? A) Extremely Confident B) Very Confident C) Moderately Confident D) Slightly Confident E) Not Confident

29 Live Poll Port Operations are defined as exports and imports, hazardous materials transport & storage, infrastructure demands, and waste generation. Rank the variables in the order that PORT OPERATIONS has the strongest influence. 1) Disaster Resiliency 2) Energy Use & Production 3) Economic Growth 4) Port Operations 5) Community Wellness 6) Environmental (Quality, Hazards, Exposures)

30 Live Poll How confident are you with your rankings? A) Extremely Confident B) Very Confident C) Moderately Confident D) Slightly Confident E) Not Confident

31 Questions & Discussion